andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2098 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: This one is no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but . . . wow! Pretty blatant. Maybe someone could endow the Raymond Keene Chair of Cut-and-Paste in the statistics department at George Mason University. Anyway, say what you want about this dude, at least he’s classy. He steals not from Wikipedia but from Gary Kasparov:
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same-blog 1 1.0 2098 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-12-Plaig!
Introduction: This one is no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but . . . wow! Pretty blatant. Maybe someone could endow the Raymond Keene Chair of Cut-and-Paste in the statistics department at George Mason University. Anyway, say what you want about this dude, at least he’s classy. He steals not from Wikipedia but from Gary Kasparov:
2 0.17121108 2105 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-18-What’s my Kasparov number?
Introduction: A colleague writes: Personally my Kasparov number is two: I beat ** in a regular tournament game, and ** beat Kasparov! That’s pretty impressive, especially given that I didn’t know this guy played chess at all! Anyway, this got me thinking, what’s my Kasparov number? OK, that’s easy. I beat Magnus Carlsen the other day when he was passing through town on vacation, Carlsen beat Anand, . . . OK, just kidding. What is my Kasparov number, though? Note that the definition, unlike that of the Erdos or Bacon numbers, is asymmetric: it has to be that I had a victory over person 1, and person 1 had a victory over person 2, etc., and ultimately person N-1 had a victory over Kasparov. The games don’t have to be in time order, they just all have to be victories. And we’ll further require that the games all be played after childhood and before senility (i.e., it doesn’t count if I happened to play someone who happens to be a cousin of some grandmaster whom he beat when they were b
3 0.13694622 2267 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-26-Is a steal really worth 9 points?
Introduction: Theodore Vasiloudis writes: I’d like to bring your attention to this article by Benjamin Morris discussing the value of steals for the NBA. The author argues that a steal should be a highly sought after statistic as it equates to higher chances of victory and is very hard to replace when a player is injured. I would argue that the reason behind the correlations showing this data is the fact that steals are much more rare in an NBA game than any of the other stats examined so their contribution is exaggerated. I looked at Morris’s article and it looks like he’s running a regression of players’ plus-minus statistics on points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and turnovers. He writes, “A marginal steal is weighted nine times more heavily when predicting a player’s impact than a marginal point. For example, a player who averages 16 points and two steals per game is predicted (assuming all else is equal) to have a similar impact on his team’s success as one who averages 25 poi
4 0.13641965 956 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-13-Hey, you! Don’t take that class!
Introduction: Back when I taught at Berkeley, I once asked a Ph.D. student how he’d decided to work with me. He said that a couple of the tenured professors had advised him not to take my class, and that this advice had got him curious: What about Bayesian statistics is so dangerous that it can scare these otherwise unflappable stat professors. Overall, my senior colleagues’ advice to students to avoid my course probably decreased my enrollment, but the students who did decide to attend surely had better character than the ones who followed directions. (Or, at least I’d like to think that.) I was reminded of that incident recently when reading a news article by Marc Tracy: A U.S. Department of Education committee is investigating whether a Columbia University department head “steered” a Jewish student away from taking a class on the Mideast taught by Professor Joseph Massad due to the perception that she would be “uncomfortable” because of the professor’s pro-Palestinian tilt . . . “Ba
5 0.13341111 881 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-30-Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos, together again
Introduction: Today I was reminded of a riddle from junior high: Q: What do you get when you cross an elephant with peanut butter? A: Peanut butter that never forgets, or an elephant that sticks to the roof of your mouth. The occasion was a link from Tyler Cowen to a new book by Garry Kasparov and . . . Peter Thiel. Kasparov we all know about. I still remember how he pulled out a victory in the last game of his tournament with Karpov. Just amazing: he had to win the game, a draw would not be enough. Both players knew that Kasparov had to win. And he did it. A feat as impressive as Kirk Gibson’s off-the-bench game-winning home run in the 1987 Series. Peter Theil is a more obscure figure. He’s been featured a couple of times on this blog and comes across as your typical overconfident rich dude. It’s an odd combination, sort of like what you might get if Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos were to write a book about how to reform baseball. Cowen writes, “How can I not pre-orde
6 0.1185201 2369 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-11-“I can’t drive home now. Not just yet. First I need to go to Utrecht.”
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9 0.098523341 1847 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-08-Of parsing and chess
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11 0.080662273 47 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-23-Of home runs and grand slams
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16 0.063449323 1122 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-16-“Groundbreaking or Definitive? Journals Need to Pick One”
17 0.062028412 1026 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-25-Bayes wikipedia update
18 0.060296033 1484 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-05-Two exciting movie ideas: “Second Chance U” and “The New Dirty Dozen”
19 0.060003158 150 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Gaydar update: Additional research on estimating small fractions of the population
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same-blog 1 0.93879521 2098 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-12-Plaig!
Introduction: This one is no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but . . . wow! Pretty blatant. Maybe someone could endow the Raymond Keene Chair of Cut-and-Paste in the statistics department at George Mason University. Anyway, say what you want about this dude, at least he’s classy. He steals not from Wikipedia but from Gary Kasparov:
Introduction: Xian pointed me to this recycling of a classic probability error. It’s too bad it was in the New York Times, but at least it was in the Opinion Pages, so I guess that’s not so bad. And, on the plus side, several of the blog commenters got the point. What I was wondering, though, was who was this “Yitzhak Melechson, a statistics professor at the University of Tel Aviv”? This is such a standard problem, I’m surprised to find a statistics professor making this mistake. I was curious what his area of research is and where he was trained. I started by googling Yitzhak Melechson but all I could find was this news story, over and over and over and over again. Then I found Tel Aviv University and navigated to its statistics department but couldn’t find any Melechson in the faculty list. Next stop: entering Melechson in the search engine at the Tel Aviv University website. It came up blank. One last try: I entered the Yitzhak Melechson into Google Scholar. Here’s what came up:
3 0.6883648 1770 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-19-Retraction watch
Introduction: Here (from the Annals of Applied Statistics ). “Thus, arguably, all of Section 3 is wrong until proven otherwise.” As with retractions in general, it makes me wonder about the rest of this guy’s work. Dr. Anil Potti would be pooping in his pants spinning in his retirement .
4 0.65019596 263 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-08-The China Study: fact or fallacy?
Introduction: Alex Chernavsky writes: I recently came across an interesting blog post , written by someone who is self-taught in statistics (not that there’s anything wrong with that). I have no particular expertise in statistics, but her analysis looks impressive to me. I’d be very interested to find out the opinion of a professional statistician. Do you have any interest in blogging about this subject? My (disappointing, I’m sure) reply: This indeed looks interesting. I don’t have the time/energy to look at it more right now, and it’s too far from any areas of my expertise for me to give any kind of quick informed opinion. It would be good for this sort of discussion to appear in a nutrition journal where the real experts could get at it. I expect there are some strong statisticians who work in that field, although I don’t really know for sure. P.S. I suppose I really should try to learn more about this sort of thing, as it could well affect my life more than a lot of other subje
5 0.64781666 1484 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-05-Two exciting movie ideas: “Second Chance U” and “The New Dirty Dozen”
Introduction: I have a great idea for a movie. Actually two movies based on two variants of a similar idea. It all started when I saw this story: Dr. Anil Potti, the controversial cancer researcher whose work at Duke University led to lawsuits from patients, is now a medical oncologist at the Cancer Center of North Dakota in Grand Forks. When asked about Dr. Potti’s controversial appointment, his new boss said : If a guy can’t get a second chance here in North Dakota, where he trained, man, you can’t get a second chance anywhere. (Link from Retraction Watch , of course.) Potti’s boss is also quoted as saying, “Most, if not all, his patients have loved him.” On the other hand, the news article reports: “The North Carolina medical board’s website lists settlements against Potti of at least $75,000.” I guess there’s no reason you can’t love a guy and still want a juicy malpractice settlement. Second Chance U I don’t give two poops about Dr. Anil Potti. But seeing the above s
6 0.64613992 571 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-13-A departmental wiki page?
7 0.64536339 1816 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-21-Exponential increase in the number of stat majors
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16 0.60620439 174 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-01-Literature and life
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20 0.59976673 1442 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-03-Double standard? Plagiarizing journos get slammed, plagiarizing profs just shrug it off
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same-blog 1 0.8411026 2098 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-12-Plaig!
Introduction: This one is no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but . . . wow! Pretty blatant. Maybe someone could endow the Raymond Keene Chair of Cut-and-Paste in the statistics department at George Mason University. Anyway, say what you want about this dude, at least he’s classy. He steals not from Wikipedia but from Gary Kasparov:
2 0.69253469 1257 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-10-Statisticians’ abbreviations are even less interesting than these!
Introduction: From AC, AI, and AIH to WAHM, WOHM, and WM. P.S. That was all pretty pointless, so I’ll throw in this viral Jim Henson link (from the same source) for free.
3 0.68537939 648 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-04-The Case for More False Positives in Anti-doping Testing
Introduction: No joke. See here (from Kaiser Fung). At the Statistics Forum.
4 0.66822708 1638 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-25-Diving chess
Introduction: Knowing of my interest in Turing run-around-the-house chess , David Lockhart points me to this : Diving Chess is a chess variant, which is played in a swimming pool. Instead of using chess clocks, each player must submerge themselves underwater during their turn, only to resurface when they are ready to make a move. Players must make a move within 5 seconds of resurfacing (they will receive a warning if not, and three warnings will result in a forfeit). Diving Chess was invented by American Chess Master Etan Ilfeld; the very first exhibition game took place between Ilfeld and former British Chess Champion William Hartston at the Thirdspace gym in Soho on August 2nd, 2011. Hartston won the match which lasted almost two hours such that each player was underwater for an entire hour.
5 0.64646351 221 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-21-Busted!
Introduction: I’m just glad that universities don’t sanction professors for publishing false theorems. If the guy really is nailed by the feds for fraud, I hope they don’t throw him in prison. In general, prison time seems like a brutal, expensive, and inefficient way to punish people. I’d prefer if the government just took 95% of his salary for several years, made him do community service (cleaning equipment at the local sewage treatment plant, perhaps; a lab scientist should be good at this sort of thing, no?), etc. If restriction of this dude’s personal freedom is judged be part of the sentence, he could be given some sort of electronic tag that would send a message to the police if he were ever more than 3 miles from his home. But no need to bill the taxpayers for the cost of keeping him in prison.
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8 0.63332784 703 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-10-Bringing Causal Models Into the Mainstream
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11 0.62019265 292 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Doug Hibbs on the fundamentals in 2010
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