andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1500 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Solomon Hsiang shares some bad news: Persistently reduced labor productivity may be one of the largest economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change. . . . Two percent per degree Celsius . . . That’s the magic number for how worker productivity responds to warm/hot temperatures. In my 2010 PNAS paper , I [Hsiang] found that labor-intensive sectors of national economies decreased output by roughly 2.4% per degree C and argued that this looked suspiously like it came from reductions in worker output. Using a totally different method and dataset, Matt Neidell and Josh Graff Zivin found that labor supply in micro data fell by 1.8% per degree C. Both responses kicked in at around 26C. Chris Sheehan just sent me this NYT article on air conditioning , where they mention this neat natural experiment: [I]n the past year, [Japan] became an unwitting laboratory to study even more extreme air-conditioning abstinence, and the results have not been encouraging. After th
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1 Solomon Hsiang shares some bad news: Persistently reduced labor productivity may be one of the largest economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change. [sent-1, score-0.643]
2 That’s the magic number for how worker productivity responds to warm/hot temperatures. [sent-8, score-0.44]
3 In my 2010 PNAS paper , I [Hsiang] found that labor-intensive sectors of national economies decreased output by roughly 2. [sent-9, score-0.632]
4 4% per degree C and argued that this looked suspiously like it came from reductions in worker output. [sent-10, score-0.686]
5 Using a totally different method and dataset, Matt Neidell and Josh Graff Zivin found that labor supply in micro data fell by 1. [sent-11, score-0.237]
6 After the Fukushima earthquake and tsunami knocked out a big chunk of the country’s nuclear power, the Japanese government mandated vastly reduced energy consumption. [sent-15, score-0.282]
7 To that end, lights have been dimmed and air-conditioners turned down or off, so that offices comply with the government-prescribed indoor summer temperature of 82. [sent-16, score-0.409]
8 4 degrees (28 Celsius); some offices have tried as high as 86. [sent-17, score-0.207]
9 Personally, I like the hot weather (as long as I’m not in a crowded bus or train), but then again I enjoy the occasional spot of low productivity. [sent-20, score-0.262]
10 On hot days, output in non-agricultural sectors drops and workers work less. [sent-23, score-0.649]
11 Furthermore, not only do the shape of the response-functions look similar, but the magnitudes of the responses are similar. [sent-24, score-0.076]
12 3 C)/2)] while I found that national output fell by about 2. [sent-32, score-0.649]
13 Hsiang concludes: Reductions in worker output have never been included in economic models of future warming (see here and here) despite the fact that experiments fifty years ago showed that temperature has a strong impact on worker output (see here and here). [sent-38, score-1.276]
14 In my dissertation I did some back-of-the-envelope estimates using the above numbers and found that productivity impacts alone might reduce per capita output by ~9% in 2080-2099 (in the absence of strong adaptation). [sent-39, score-0.886]
15 This cost excedes the combined cost of all other projected economic losses combined. [sent-40, score-0.382]
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