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904 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-13-My wikipedia edit


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Introduction: The other day someone mentioned my complaint about the Wikipedia article on “Bayesian inference” (see footnote 1 of this article ) and he said I should fix the Wikipedia entry myself. And so I did . I didn’t have the energy to rewrite the whole article–in particular, all of its examples involve discrete parameters, whereas the Bayesian problems I work on generally have continuous parameters, and its “mathematical foundations” section focuses on “independent identically distributed observations x” rather than data y which can have different distributions. It’s just a wacky, unbalanced article. But I altered the first few paragraphs to get rid of the stuff about the posterior probability that a model is true. I much prefer the Scholarpedia article on Bayesian statistics by David Spiegelhalter and Kenneth Rice, but I couldn’t bring myself to simply delete the Wikipedia article and replace it with the Scholarpedia content. Just to be clear: I’m not at all trying to disparage


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sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 The other day someone mentioned my complaint about the Wikipedia article on “Bayesian inference” (see footnote 1 of this article ) and he said I should fix the Wikipedia entry myself. [sent-1, score-1.027]

2 But I altered the first few paragraphs to get rid of the stuff about the posterior probability that a model is true. [sent-5, score-0.639]

3 I much prefer the Scholarpedia article on Bayesian statistics by David Spiegelhalter and Kenneth Rice, but I couldn’t bring myself to simply delete the Wikipedia article and replace it with the Scholarpedia content. [sent-6, score-0.897]

4 Just to be clear: I’m not at all trying to disparage the efforts of the Wikipedians. [sent-7, score-0.247]

5 It’s only through putting stuff out there that it can be edited and improved. [sent-8, score-0.373]


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Introduction: The other day someone mentioned my complaint about the Wikipedia article on “Bayesian inference” (see footnote 1 of this article ) and he said I should fix the Wikipedia entry myself. And so I did . I didn’t have the energy to rewrite the whole article–in particular, all of its examples involve discrete parameters, whereas the Bayesian problems I work on generally have continuous parameters, and its “mathematical foundations” section focuses on “independent identically distributed observations x” rather than data y which can have different distributions. It’s just a wacky, unbalanced article. But I altered the first few paragraphs to get rid of the stuff about the posterior probability that a model is true. I much prefer the Scholarpedia article on Bayesian statistics by David Spiegelhalter and Kenneth Rice, but I couldn’t bring myself to simply delete the Wikipedia article and replace it with the Scholarpedia content. Just to be clear: I’m not at all trying to disparage

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Introduction: Zoe Corbyn’s article for The Guardian (UK), titled Wikipedia wants more contributions from academics , and the followup discussion on Slashdot got me thinking about my own Wikipedia edits. The article quotes Dario Taraborelli, a research analyst for the Wikimedia Foundation, as saying “Academics are trapped in this paradox of using Wikipedia but not contributing,” Huh? I’m really wondering what man-in-the-street wrote all the great stats stuff out there. And what’s the paradox? I use lots of things without contributing to them. Taraborelli is further quoted as saying “The Wikimedia Foundation is looking at how it might capture expert conversation about Wikipedia content happening on other websites and feed it back to the community as a way of providing pointers for improvement.” This struck home. I recently went through the entry for latent Dirichlet allocation and found a bug in their derivation. I wrote up a revised derivation and posted it on my own blog .

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Introduction: Deborah Mayo collected some reactions to my recent article , Induction and Deduction in Bayesian Data Analysis. I’m pleased that that everybody (philosopher Mayo, applied statistician Stephen Senn, and theoretical statistician Larry Wasserman) is so positive about my article and that nobody’s defending the sort of hard-core inductivism that’s featured on the Bayesian inference wikipedia page. Here’s the Wikipedia definition, which I disagree with: Bayesian inference uses aspects of the scientific method, which involves collecting evidence that is meant to be consistent or inconsistent with a given hypothesis. As evidence accumulates, the degree of belief in a hypothesis ought to change. With enough evidence, it should become very high or very low. . . . Bayesian inference uses a numerical estimate of the degree of belief in a hypothesis before evidence has been observed and calculates a numerical estimate of the degree of belief in the hypothesis after evidence has been obse

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Introduction: Updated version of my paper with Xian: The missionary zeal of many Bayesians of old has been matched, in the other direction, by an attitude among some theoreticians that Bayesian methods are absurd—not merely misguided but obviously wrong in principle. We consider several examples, beginning with Feller’s classic text on probability theory and continuing with more recent cases such as the perceived Bayesian nature of the so-called doomsday argument. We analyze in this note the intellectual background behind various misconceptions about Bayesian statistics, without aiming at a complete historical coverage of the reasons for this dismissal. I love this stuff.

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Introduction: I came across this article on the philosophy of statistics by University of Michigan economist John DiNardo. I don’t have much to say about the substance of the article because most of it is an argument against something called “Bayesian methods” that doesn’t have much in common with the Bayesian data analysis that I do. If an quantitative, empirically-minded economist at a top university doesn’t know about modern Bayesian methods, then it’s a pretty good guess that confusion holds in many other quarters as well, so I thought I’d try to clear a couple of things up. (See also here .) In the short term, I know I have some readers at the University of Michigan, so maybe a couple of you could go over to Prof. DiNardo’s office and discuss this with him? For the rest of you, please spread the word. My point here is not to claim that DiNardo should be using Bayesian methods or to claim that he’s doing anything wrong in his applied work. It’s just that he’s fighting against a bu

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Introduction: Anthropologist Bruce Mannheim reports that a recent well-publicized study on the genetics of native Americans, which used genetic analysis to find “at least three streams of Asian gene flow,” is in fact a confirmation of a long-known fact. Mannheim writes: This three-way distinction was known linguistically since the 1920s (for example, Sapir 1921). Basically, it’s a division among the Eskimo-Aleut languages, which straddle the Bering Straits even today, the Athabaskan languages (which were discovered to be related to a small Siberian language family only within the last few years, not by Greenberg as Wade suggested), and everything else. This is not to say that the results from genetics are unimportant, but it’s good to see how it fits with other aspects of our understanding.

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