andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2369 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: EJ points me to this new techno-thriller . Based on the sentence quoted above, I don’t see it selling lots of copies. It reads like a really boring Raymond Chandler. I still think these two movie ideas would be a better sell.
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1 Based on the sentence quoted above, I don’t see it selling lots of copies. [sent-2, score-1.136]
2 I still think these two movie ideas would be a better sell. [sent-4, score-0.9]
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same-blog 1 1.0 2369 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-11-“I can’t drive home now. Not just yet. First I need to go to Utrecht.”
Introduction: EJ points me to this new techno-thriller . Based on the sentence quoted above, I don’t see it selling lots of copies. It reads like a really boring Raymond Chandler. I still think these two movie ideas would be a better sell.
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Introduction: In case you just can’t get enough, check out this amusing interview. The interview is from the year 2000 (I think) but it reads like it could’ve been done yesterday.
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Introduction: Our publisher informs me of the exciting news that Amazon is now selling the 3rd edition of our book at 40% off! Enjoy.
4 0.1185201 2098 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-12-Plaig!
Introduction: This one is no big deal in the grand scheme of things, but . . . wow! Pretty blatant. Maybe someone could endow the Raymond Keene Chair of Cut-and-Paste in the statistics department at George Mason University. Anyway, say what you want about this dude, at least he’s classy. He steals not from Wikipedia but from Gary Kasparov:
5 0.10528857 2197 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Peabody here.
Introduction: I saw the trailer for the new Mr. Peabody movie and it looked terrible. They used that weird animation where everything looks round, also the voice had none of the intonations of the “real” Peabody (for some reason, the trailer had the original English voices, maybe they didn’t get their act together to make a dubbed trailer in time for the release here), also the scenes looked pretty stupid. I went back home and checked out Peabody on wikipedia and it turns out that they made 91 episodes! I had no idea. Anyway, here’s my real question: Why bother making a Mr. Peabody movie if you’re not going to do it well? I understand that lots of moviemakers are hacks and there will always be a huge audience for crap in any case, so I’m certainly not demanding that all movies be “good” (in whatever sense that means, from my perceptions). But there are lots and lots of opportunities to make crap movies, there are a million toys and video games and comic book characters and fairy tales and br
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same-blog 1 0.95742249 2369 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-11-“I can’t drive home now. Not just yet. First I need to go to Utrecht.”
Introduction: EJ points me to this new techno-thriller . Based on the sentence quoted above, I don’t see it selling lots of copies. It reads like a really boring Raymond Chandler. I still think these two movie ideas would be a better sell.
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Introduction: Susan points me to this . But I don’t really see the point. Simply leaning the bike against the wall seems like a better option to me.
3 0.81088197 2197 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Peabody here.
Introduction: I saw the trailer for the new Mr. Peabody movie and it looked terrible. They used that weird animation where everything looks round, also the voice had none of the intonations of the “real” Peabody (for some reason, the trailer had the original English voices, maybe they didn’t get their act together to make a dubbed trailer in time for the release here), also the scenes looked pretty stupid. I went back home and checked out Peabody on wikipedia and it turns out that they made 91 episodes! I had no idea. Anyway, here’s my real question: Why bother making a Mr. Peabody movie if you’re not going to do it well? I understand that lots of moviemakers are hacks and there will always be a huge audience for crap in any case, so I’m certainly not demanding that all movies be “good” (in whatever sense that means, from my perceptions). But there are lots and lots of opportunities to make crap movies, there are a million toys and video games and comic book characters and fairy tales and br
4 0.75570065 594 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-28-Behavioral economics doesn’t seem to have much to say about marriage
Introduction: This was just bizarre. It’s an interview with Colin Camerer, a professor of finance and economics at Caltech, The topic is Camerer’s marriage, but what’s weird is that he doesn’t say anything specific about his wife at all. All we get are witticisms of the sub-Henny-Youngman level, for example, in response to the question, “Any free riding in your household?”, Camerer says: No. Here’s why: I am one of the world’s leading experts on psychology, the brain and strategic game theory. But my wife is a woman. So it’s a tie. Also some schoolyard evolutionary biology (“men signaling that they will help you raise your baby after conception, and women signaling fidelity” blah blah blah) and advice for husbands in “upper-class marriages with assets.” (No advice to the wives, but maybe that’s a good thing.) And here are his insights on love and marriage: Marriage is like hot slow-burning embers compared to the flashy flames of love. After the babies, the married brain has better thin
5 0.75135249 1553 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-30-Real rothko, fake rothko
Introduction: Jay Livingston writes : I know that in art, quality and value are two very different things. Still, I had to stop and wonder when I read about Domenico and Eleanore De Sole, who in 2004 paid $8.3 million for a painting attributed to Mark Rothko that they now say is a worthless fake. One day a painting is worth $8.3 million; the next day, the same painting – same quality, same capacity to give aesthetic pleasure or do whatever it is that art does – is “worthless.”* Art forgery also makes me wonder about the buyer’s motive. If the buyer wanted only to have and to gaze upon something beautiful, something with artistic merit, then a fake Rothko is no different than a real Rothko. It seems more likely that what the buyer wants is to own something valuable – i.e., something that costs a lot. Displaying your brokerage account statements is just too crude and obvious. What the high-end art market offers is a kind of money laundering. Objects that are rare and therefore expensive
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same-blog 1 0.96418494 2369 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-11-“I can’t drive home now. Not just yet. First I need to go to Utrecht.”
Introduction: EJ points me to this new techno-thriller . Based on the sentence quoted above, I don’t see it selling lots of copies. It reads like a really boring Raymond Chandler. I still think these two movie ideas would be a better sell.
2 0.96179473 597 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-02-RStudio – new cross-platform IDE for R
Introduction: The new R environment RStudio looks really great, especially for users new to R. In teaching, these are often people new to programming anything, much less statistical models. The R GUIs were different on each platform, with (sometimes modal) windows appearing and disappearing and no unified design. RStudio fixes that and has already found a happy home on my desktop. Initial impressions I’ve been using it for the past couple of days. For me, it replaces the niche that R.app held: looking at help, quickly doing something I don’t want to pollute a project workspace with; sometimes data munging, merging, and transforming; and prototyping plots. RStudio is better than R.app at all of these things. For actual development and papers, though, I remain wedded to emacs+ess (good old C-x M-c M-Butterfly ). Favorite features in no particular order plots seamlessly made in new graphics devices. This is huge— instead of one active plot window named something like quartz(1) t
3 0.95052767 1942 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-17-“Stop and frisk” statistics
Introduction: Washington Post columnist Richard Cohen brings up one of my research topics: In New York City, blacks make up a quarter of the population, yet they represent 78 percent of all shooting suspects — almost all of them young men. We know them from the nightly news. Those statistics represent the justification for New York City’s controversial stop-and-frisk program, which amounts to racial profiling writ large. After all, if young black males are your shooters, then it ought to be young black males whom the police stop and frisk. I have two comments on this. First, my research with Jeff Fagan and Alex Kiss (based on data from the late 1990s, so maybe things have changed) found that the NYPD was stopping blacks and hispanics at a rate higher than their previous arrest rates: To briefly summarize our findings, blacks and Hispanics represented 51% and 33% of the stops while representing only 26% and 24% of the New York City population. Compared with the number of arrests of
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Introduction: Earlier today I posted a weird email that began with “You are receiving this notice because you have published a paper with the American Journal of Public Health within the last few years” and continued with a sleazy attempt to squeeze $1000 out of me so that an article that I sent them for free could be available to the public. $1000 might seem like a lot, but they assured me that “we are extending this limited time offer of open access at a steeply discounted rate.” Sort of like a Vegematic but without that set of Ginsu knives thrown in for free. But then when I was responding to comments, I realized that . . . I didn’t actually remember ever publishing anything in that journal. It’s not on my list of 100+ journals. I did a search on my published papers page and couldn’t find anything closer than the Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health (and that was not within the last few years). I checked Google Scholar. And then I went straight to the AJPH webpage and sea
Introduction: Aki Vehtari and Janne Ojanen just published a long paper that begins: To date, several methods exist in the statistical literature for model assessment, which purport themselves specifically as Bayesian predictive methods. The decision theoretic assumptions on which these methods are based are not always clearly stated in the original articles, however. The aim of this survey is to provide a unified review of Bayesian predictive model assessment and selection methods, and of methods closely related to them. We review the various assumptions that are made in this context and discuss the connections between different approaches, with an emphasis on how each method approximates the expected utility of using a Bayesian model for the purpose of predicting future data. AIC (which Akaike called “An Information Criterion”) is the starting point for all these methods. More recently, Watanabe came up with WAIC (which he called the “Widely Available Information Criterion”). In between t
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