andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1111 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Dan Kahan and colleagues write : The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e.g., whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. Project members are using the methods of various disciplines — including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science — to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and c
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Dan Kahan and colleagues write : The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. [sent-1, score-0.948]
2 Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e. [sent-2, score-0.825]
3 , whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. [sent-4, score-1.582]
4 Project members are using the methods of various disciplines — including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science — to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. [sent-5, score-0.565]
5 The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and consistent with sound public policymaking. [sent-6, score-2.061]
6 Laurence Tribe and Alan Dershowitz (or whoever’s writing their material these days) must be spinning in their graves. [sent-12, score-0.126]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('cultural', 0.432), ('cognition', 0.217), ('project', 0.191), ('identify', 0.15), ('outlooks', 0.15), ('society', 0.146), ('congenial', 0.141), ('culturally', 0.141), ('conform', 0.13), ('anthropology', 0.13), ('whether', 0.129), ('disputed', 0.126), ('dershowitz', 0.126), ('spinning', 0.126), ('values', 0.124), ('grounded', 0.118), ('laurence', 0.118), ('gun', 0.116), ('tribe', 0.116), ('mechanisms', 0.114), ('perceptions', 0.112), ('communications', 0.112), ('disciplines', 0.11), ('normative', 0.11), ('whoever', 0.106), ('murder', 0.106), ('threat', 0.104), ('persons', 0.103), ('explicit', 0.102), ('shape', 0.101), ('chart', 0.101), ('penalty', 0.101), ('alan', 0.099), ('kahan', 0.098), ('warming', 0.098), ('resolve', 0.097), ('public', 0.097), ('diverse', 0.096), ('manner', 0.094), ('phenomenon', 0.09), ('refers', 0.09), ('tendency', 0.09), ('beliefs', 0.089), ('death', 0.089), ('safe', 0.089), ('professors', 0.086), ('objective', 0.085), ('processes', 0.084), ('matters', 0.083), ('scholars', 0.082)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1111 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-10-The blog of the Cultural Cognition Project
Introduction: Dan Kahan and colleagues write : The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e.g., whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. Project members are using the methods of various disciplines — including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science — to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and c
Introduction: It all began with this message from Dan Kahan, a law professor who does psychology experiments: My graphs– what do you think?? I guess what do you think of the result too, but the answer is, “That’s obvious!” If it hadn’t been, then it would have been suspicious in my book. Of course, if we had found the opposite result, that would have been “obvious!” too. We are submitting to LR ≠1 Journa l This is the latest study in series looking at relationship between critical reasoning capacities and “cultural cognition” — the tendency of individuals to conform their perceptions of risk & other policy-relevant facts to their group commitments. The first installment was an observational study that found that cultural polarization ( political too ; the distinction relate not to the mechanism for polarization over decision-relevant science but only about how to measure what is hypothesized to be driving it) increases as people become more science literate. This paper and ano
3 0.16724588 1833 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-30-“Tragedy of the science-communication commons”
Introduction: I’ve earlier written that science is science communication —that is, the act of communicating scientific ideas and findings to ourselves and others is itself a central part of science. My point was to push against a conventional separation between the act of science and the act of communication, the idea that science is done by scientists and communication is done by communicators. It’s a rare bit of science that does not include communication as part of it. As a scientist and science communicator myself, I’m particularly sensitive to devaluing of communication. (For example, Bayesian Data Analysis is full of original research that was done in order to communicate; or, to put it another way, we often think we understand a scientific idea, but once we try to communicate it, we recognize gaps in our understanding that motivate further research.) I once saw the following on one of those inspirational-sayings-for-every-day desk calendars: “To have ideas is to gather flowers. To thin
4 0.14081271 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk
Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”
5 0.1292727 845 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-08-How adoption speed affects the abandonment of cultural tastes
Introduction: Interesting article by Jonah Berger and Gael Le Mens: Products, styles, and social movements often catch on and become popular, but little is known about why such identity-relevant cultural tastes and practices die out. We demonstrate that the velocity of adoption may affect abandonment: Analysis of over 100 years of data on first-name adoption in both France and the United States illustrates that cultural tastes that have been adopted quickly die faster (i.e., are less likely to persist). Mirroring this aggregate pattern, at the individual level, expecting parents are more hesitant to adopt names that recently experienced sharper increases in adoption. Further analysis indicate that these effects are driven by concerns about symbolic value: Fads are perceived negatively, so people avoid identity-relevant items with sharply increasing popularity because they believe that they will be short lived. Ancillary analyses also indicate that, in contrast to conventional wisdom, identity-r
7 0.12269291 1633 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-21-Kahan on Pinker on politics
8 0.11352724 962 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-17-Death!
9 0.11130046 913 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-16-Groundhog day in August?
10 0.098446995 2330 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-Historical Arc of Universities
11 0.084608659 331 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-10-Bayes jumps the shark
12 0.080732957 219 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-Some things are just really hard to believe: more on choosing your facts.
14 0.074455239 613 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-15-Gay-married state senator shot down gay marriage
15 0.074237719 1442 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-03-Double standard? Plagiarizing journos get slammed, plagiarizing profs just shrug it off
16 0.073016271 1867 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-22-To Throw Away Data: Plagiarism as a Statistical Crime
17 0.071190588 2309 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-28-Crowdstorming a dataset
18 0.069644608 74 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Extreme views weakly held”
19 0.068767652 2131 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-12-My talk at Leuven, Sat 14 Dec
20 0.066639125 1414 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-12-Steven Pinker’s unconvincing debunking of group selection
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.107), (1, -0.041), (2, 0.003), (3, -0.032), (4, -0.041), (5, 0.031), (6, -0.044), (7, -0.027), (8, -0.043), (9, 0.073), (10, -0.039), (11, -0.014), (12, 0.017), (13, 0.022), (14, 0.012), (15, 0.011), (16, 0.027), (17, -0.012), (18, 0.022), (19, -0.027), (20, 0.01), (21, -0.024), (22, -0.06), (23, -0.044), (24, 0.022), (25, -0.048), (26, 0.046), (27, -0.007), (28, -0.013), (29, -0.026), (30, -0.026), (31, -0.013), (32, -0.004), (33, -0.013), (34, 0.009), (35, -0.083), (36, 0.013), (37, -0.008), (38, 0.049), (39, -0.035), (40, 0.031), (41, -0.019), (42, 0.009), (43, -0.062), (44, -0.002), (45, -0.032), (46, 0.028), (47, 0.022), (48, -0.045), (49, 0.011)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.98154962 1111 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-10-The blog of the Cultural Cognition Project
Introduction: Dan Kahan and colleagues write : The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e.g., whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. Project members are using the methods of various disciplines — including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science — to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and c
2 0.72652656 600 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-04-“Social Psychologists Detect Liberal Bias Within”
Introduction: Mark Palko asks what I think of this news article by John Tierney. The article’s webpage is given the strange incomplete title above. My first comment is that the headline appears false. I didn’t see any evidence presented of liberal bias. (If the headline says “Social psychologists detect,” I expect to see some detection, not just anecdotes.) What I did see was a discussion of the fact that most academic psychologists consider themselves politically liberal (a pattern that holds for academic researchers in general), along with some anecdotes of moderates over the years who have felt their political views disrespected by the liberal majority. I’m interested in the topic, and I’m open to the possibility that there are all sorts of biases in academic research–but I don’t see the evidence from this article that social psychologists have detected any bias yet. Phrases such as “a statistically impossible lack of diversity” are just silly. What I really wonder is what John Jo
3 0.69194365 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk
Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”
Introduction: It all began with this message from Dan Kahan, a law professor who does psychology experiments: My graphs– what do you think?? I guess what do you think of the result too, but the answer is, “That’s obvious!” If it hadn’t been, then it would have been suspicious in my book. Of course, if we had found the opposite result, that would have been “obvious!” too. We are submitting to LR ≠1 Journa l This is the latest study in series looking at relationship between critical reasoning capacities and “cultural cognition” — the tendency of individuals to conform their perceptions of risk & other policy-relevant facts to their group commitments. The first installment was an observational study that found that cultural polarization ( political too ; the distinction relate not to the mechanism for polarization over decision-relevant science but only about how to measure what is hypothesized to be driving it) increases as people become more science literate. This paper and ano
5 0.68248177 1414 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-12-Steven Pinker’s unconvincing debunking of group selection
Introduction: Steven Pinker writes : Human beings live in groups, are affected by the fortunes of their groups, and sometimes make sacrifices that benefit their groups. Does this mean that the human brain has been shaped by natural selection to promote the welfare of the group in competition with other groups, even when it damages the welfare of the person and his or her kin? . . . Several scientists whom I [Pinker] greatly respect have said so in prominent places. And they have gone on to use the theory of group selection to make eye-opening claims about the human condition. They have claimed that human morailty, particularly our willingness to engage in acts of altruism, can be explained as an adaptation to group-against-group competition. As E. O. Wilson explains, “In a group, selfish individuals beat altruistic individuals. But, groups of altruistic individuals beat groups of selfish individuals.” . . . I [Pinker] am often asked whether I agree with the new group selectionists, and the q
6 0.68210971 1833 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-30-“Tragedy of the science-communication commons”
7 0.67927104 2330 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-Historical Arc of Universities
8 0.67164695 1633 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-21-Kahan on Pinker on politics
9 0.66122693 877 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-29-Applying quantum probability to political science
10 0.66064662 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying
11 0.65994769 1051 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-10-Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers
12 0.65887314 604 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-08-More on the missing conservative psychology researchers
15 0.63276362 1515 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-29-Jost Haidt
16 0.63261074 1335 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-21-Responding to a bizarre anti-social-science screed
17 0.63115805 267 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-09-This Friday afternoon: Applied Statistics Center mini-conference on risk perception
18 0.62893409 969 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-22-Researching the cost-effectiveness of political lobbying organisations
19 0.62374836 1 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion
20 0.62285429 359 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-21-Applied Statistics Center miniconference: Statistical sampling in developing countries
topicId topicWeight
[(5, 0.012), (9, 0.036), (14, 0.014), (15, 0.042), (16, 0.029), (21, 0.036), (24, 0.102), (31, 0.013), (34, 0.174), (40, 0.021), (43, 0.032), (45, 0.025), (47, 0.011), (51, 0.012), (66, 0.013), (77, 0.012), (89, 0.013), (97, 0.013), (98, 0.04), (99, 0.266)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
1 0.9558202 292 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-23-Doug Hibbs on the fundamentals in 2010
Introduction: Hibbs, one of the original economy-and-elections guys, writes : The number of House seats won by the presidents party at midterm elections is well explained by three pre-determined or exogenous variables: (1) the number of House seats won by the in-party at the previous on-year election, (2) the vote margin of the in-partys candidate at the previous presidential election, and (3) the average growth rate of per capita real disposable personal income during the congressional term. Given the partisan division of House seats following the 2008 on-year election, President Obamas margin of victory in 2008, and the weak growth of per capita real income during the rst 6 quarters of the 111th Congress, the Democrats chances of holding on to a House majority by winning at least 218 seats at the 2010 midterm election will depend on real income growth in the 3rd quarter of 2010. The data available at this writing indicate the that Democrats will win 211 seats, a loss of 45 from the 2008 o
same-blog 2 0.95490533 1111 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-10-The blog of the Cultural Cognition Project
Introduction: Dan Kahan and colleagues write : The Cultural Cognition Project is a group of scholars interested in studying how cultural values shape public risk perceptions and related policy beliefs. Cultural cognition refers to the tendency of individuals to conform their beliefs about disputed matters of fact (e.g., whether global warming is a serious threat; whether the death penalty deters murder; whether gun control makes society more safe or less) to values that define their cultural identities. Project members are using the methods of various disciplines — including social psychology, anthropology, communications, and political science — to chart the impact of this phenomenon and to identify the mechanisms through which it operates. The Project also has an explicit normative objective: to identify processes of democratic decisionmaking by which society can resolve culturally grounded differences in belief in a manner that is both congenial to persons of diverse cultural outlooks and c
3 0.95239097 1911 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-23-AI Stats conference on Stan etc.
Introduction: Jaakko Peltonen writes: The Seventeenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics (http://www.aistats.org) will be next April in Reykjavik, Iceland. AISTATS is an interdisciplinary conference at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, and related areas. ============================================================================== AISTATS 2014 Call for Papers Seventeenth International Conference on Artificial Intelligence and Statistics April 22 – 25, 2014, Reykjavik, Iceland http://www.aistats.org Colocated with a MLSS Machine Learning Summer School ============================================================================== AISTATS is an interdisciplinary gathering of researchers at the intersection of computer science, artificial intelligence, machine learning, statistics, and related areas. Since its inception in 1985, the primary goal of AISTATS has been to broaden research in the
4 0.92951578 1501 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-18-More studies on the economic effects of climate change
Introduction: After writing yesterday’s post , I was going through Solomon Hsiang’s blog and found a post pointing to three studies from researchers at business schools: Severe Weather and Automobile Assembly Productivity Gérard P. Cachon, Santiago Gallino and Marcelo Olivares Abstract: It is expected that climate change could lead to an increased frequency of severe weather. In turn, severe weather intuitively should hamper the productivity of work that occurs outside. But what is the effect of rain, snow, fog, heat and wind on work that occurs indoors, such as the production of automobiles? Using weekly production data from 64 automobile plants in the United States over a ten-year period, we find that adverse weather conditions lead to a significant reduction in production. For example, one additional day of high wind advisory by the National Weather Service (i.e., maximum winds generally in excess of 44 miles per hour) reduces production by 26%, which is comparable in order of magnitude t
Introduction: Solomon Hsiang shares some bad news: Persistently reduced labor productivity may be one of the largest economic impacts of anthropogenic climate change. . . . Two percent per degree Celsius . . . That’s the magic number for how worker productivity responds to warm/hot temperatures. In my 2010 PNAS paper , I [Hsiang] found that labor-intensive sectors of national economies decreased output by roughly 2.4% per degree C and argued that this looked suspiously like it came from reductions in worker output. Using a totally different method and dataset, Matt Neidell and Josh Graff Zivin found that labor supply in micro data fell by 1.8% per degree C. Both responses kicked in at around 26C. Chris Sheehan just sent me this NYT article on air conditioning , where they mention this neat natural experiment: [I]n the past year, [Japan] became an unwitting laboratory to study even more extreme air-conditioning abstinence, and the results have not been encouraging. After th
6 0.92369205 956 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-13-Hey, you! Don’t take that class!
7 0.92207748 1734 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-23-Life in the C-suite: A graph that is both ugly and bad, and an unrelated story
8 0.91882664 1144 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-29-How many parameters are in a multilevel model?
9 0.91715741 929 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-27-Visual diagnostics for discrete-data regressions
10 0.90051591 1723 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-15-Wacky priors can work well?
11 0.89900392 219 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-Some things are just really hard to believe: more on choosing your facts.
12 0.89708138 1132 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-21-A counterfeit data graphic
13 0.89671266 884 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-01-My course this fall on Bayesian Computation
14 0.89434862 1842 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-05-Cleaning up science
15 0.88905513 312 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-“Regression to the mean” is fine. But what’s the “mean”?
16 0.88627541 135 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-09-Rasmussen sez: “108% of Respondents Say . . .”
17 0.87383449 936 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-02-Covariate Adjustment in RCT - Model Overfitting in Multilevel Regression
18 0.87268502 2113 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-25-Postdoc position on psychometrics and network modeling
19 0.87204862 71 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-07-Pay for an A?
20 0.87099135 886 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-02-The new Helen DeWitt novel