andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2063 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 2063 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-16-My talk 19h this evening
Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
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Introduction: À 11h15 au Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées: Peut-on utiliser les méthodes bayésiennes pour résoudre la crise des résultats de la recherche statistiquement significatifs que ne tiennent pas? It’s the usual story: the audience will be technical but with a varying mix of interests, and so what they most wanted to hear was something general and nontechnical. But this work does have connections to more involved research on interactions and weakly informative priors.
Introduction: As I wrote a couple years ago: Even though statistical analysis has demonstrated that presidential elections are predictable given economic conditions and previous votes in the states . . . it certainly doesn’t mean that every election can be accurately predicted ahead of time. Presidential general election campaigns have several distinct features that distinguish them from most other elections: 1. Two major candidates; 2. The candidates clearly differ in their political ideologies and in their positions on economic issues; 3. The two sides have roughly equal financial and organizational resources; 4. The current election is the latest in a long series of similar contests (every four years); 5. A long campaign, giving candidates a long time to present their case and giving voters a long time to make up their minds. Other elections look different. . . . Or, as I said in reference to the current NYC mayoral election: Et selon Andrew Gelman, expert de l’universi
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Introduction: Try this link . . . . OK, it worked (as well as might be expected given that we don’t have any professional audiovisual people involved). Tomorrow 8h30, I’ll post a new link with the new G+ hangout. We’ll be going through the first two sets of slides (class1a.pdf and class1b.pdf) following the link for the slides here .
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Introduction: X marks the spot . I’ll post the slides soon (not just for the students in my class; these should be helpful for anyone teaching Bayesian data analysis from our book ). But I don’t think you’ll get much from reading the slides alone; you’ll get more out of the book (or, of course, from taking the class).
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Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
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Introduction: It went pretty well, especially considering it was an entirely new talk (even though, paradoxically, all the images were old), and even though I had a tough act to follow: I came on immediately after an excellent short presentation by Jed Dougherty on some cool information and visualization software that he and his colleagues are building for social workers. The only problems with my were: (a) I planned to elicit more audience involvement but didn’t do it. It would’ve been easy: at any point I could’ve just paused and had the audience members work in pairs to come up with suggested improvements to any of my graphs. But I forgot to do it. (b) I went on too long. The talk was going so well, I didn’t stop. In retrospect, it would’ve been better to stop earlier. Better for people to leave the table hungry than stuffed. Also, next time I’ll drop the bit about the nuns-in-prison movies. People weren’t getting the connection to the point I was making about presetting the sig
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Introduction: Try this link . . . . OK, it worked (as well as might be expected given that we don’t have any professional audiovisual people involved). Tomorrow 8h30, I’ll post a new link with the new G+ hangout. We’ll be going through the first two sets of slides (class1a.pdf and class1b.pdf) following the link for the slides here .
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Introduction: Jim Savage saw this and pointed me to this video. I didn’t actually look at it, but given that it is labeled, “For new econ Ph.D.’s about to look for a job . . . what you might expect when you give your first talk presenting your research,” I can pretty much guess what it’ll look like.
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Introduction: I just gave a talk in Milan. Actually I was sitting at my desk, it was a g+ hangout which was a bit more convenient for me. The audience was a bunch of astronomers so I figured they could handle a satellite link. . . . Anyway, the talk didn’t go so well. Two reasons: first, it’s just hard to get the connection with the audience without being able to see their faces. Next time I think I’ll try to get several people in the audience to open up their laptops and connect to the hangout, so that I can see a mosaic of faces instead of just a single image from the front of the room. The second problem with the talk was the topic. I asked the people who invited me to choose a topic, and they picked Can we use Bayesian methods to resolve the current crisis of statistically-significant research findings that don’t hold up? But I don’t think this was right for this audience. I think that it would’ve been better to give them the Stan talk or the little data talk or the statistic
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Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
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Introduction: Matt3 pointed us to this helpful document by Agner Fog, “Optimizing software in C++ An optimization guide for Windows, Linux and Mac platforms.” More here . Enjoy!
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Introduction: The second best thing about this story (from Tom Scocca) is that Anderson spells “Tweets” with a capital T. But the best thing is that Scocca is numerate—he compares numbers on the logarithmic scale: Reminding Lake that he only had 169 Twitter followers was the saddest gambit of all. Jon Lee Anderson has 17,866 followers. And Kim Kardashian has, as I write this, 17,489,892 followers. That is: Jon Lee Anderson is 1/1,000 as important on Twitter, by his own standard, as Kim Kardashian. He is 10 times closer to Mitch Lake than he is to Kim Kardashian. How often do we see a popular journalist who understands orders of magnitude? Good job, Tom Scocca! P.S. Based on his “little twerp” comment, I also wonder if Anderson suffers from tall person syndrome—that’s the problem that some people of above-average height have, that they think they’re more important than other people because they literally look down on them. Don’t get me wrong—I have lots of tall friends who are complete
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Introduction: OK, here’s something that is completely baffling me. I read this article by John Colapinto on the neuroscientist V. S. Ramachandran, who’s famous for his innovative treatment for “phantom limb” pain: His first subject was a young man who a decade earlier had crashed his motorcycle and torn from his spinal column the nerves supplying the left arm. After keeping the useless arm in a sling for a year, the man had the arm amputated above the elbow. Ever since, he had felt unremitting cramping in the phantom limb, as though it were immobilized in an awkward position. . . . Ramachandram positioned a twenty-inch-by-twenty-inch drugstore mirror . . . and told him to place his intact right arm on one side of the mirror and his stump on the other. He told the man to arrange the mirror so that the reflection created the illusion that his intact arm was the continuation of the amputated one. The Ramachandran asked the man to move his right and left arms . . . “Oh, my God!” the man began
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