andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1231 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I just got called by a robo-poll. I really think there should be a law that anyone who wants to call like this should be a real person and supply their home phone number. This sort of one-way contact is nothing more than harassment. As well as poisoning the well by reducing the inclination of people to participate in legitimate surveys.
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1 I really think there should be a law that anyone who wants to call like this should be a real person and supply their home phone number. [sent-2, score-1.841]
2 This sort of one-way contact is nothing more than harassment. [sent-3, score-0.462]
3 As well as poisoning the well by reducing the inclination of people to participate in legitimate surveys. [sent-4, score-1.901]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 1231 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-27-Attention pollution
Introduction: I just got called by a robo-poll. I really think there should be a law that anyone who wants to call like this should be a real person and supply their home phone number. This sort of one-way contact is nothing more than harassment. As well as poisoning the well by reducing the inclination of people to participate in legitimate surveys.
2 0.11681096 1207 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-10-A quick suggestion
Introduction: Next time Stephen Wolfram is on the phone , maybe he could call the head of Human Resources at his company and get this guy fired?
Introduction: Well put.
4 0.10493542 725 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-21-People kept emailing me this one so I think I have to blog something
Introduction: Here and here , for example. I just hope they’re using our survey methods and aren’t trying to contact the zombies face-to-face!
5 0.10186982 1437 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-Paying survey respondents
Introduction: I agree with Casey Mulligan that participants in government surveys should be paid, and I think it should be part of the code of ethics for commercial pollsters to compensate their respondents also. As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. P.S. Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. P.P.S. More rant here .
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same-blog 1 0.94234949 1231 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-27-Attention pollution
Introduction: I just got called by a robo-poll. I really think there should be a law that anyone who wants to call like this should be a real person and supply their home phone number. This sort of one-way contact is nothing more than harassment. As well as poisoning the well by reducing the inclination of people to participate in legitimate surveys.
2 0.78099465 1882 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-03-The statistical properties of smart chains (and referral chains more generally)
Introduction: Louis Mittel writes: The premise of the column this guy is starting is interesting: Noah Davis interviews a smart person and then interviews the smartest person that smart person knows and so on. It reminded me of you mentioning survey design strategy of asking people about other people, like “How many people do you know named Stuart?” or “How many people do you know that have had an abortion?” Ignoring the interview aspect of what this guy is doing, I think there’s some cool questions about the distribution/path behavior of smartest-person-I-know chains (say, seeded at random). Do they loop? If so, how long do they run before looping, how large are the loops? What parts of the population do the explore? Do you know of anything that’s been done on something like this? My reply: Interesting question. It could be asked of any referral chain, for example asking a sequence of people, “Who’s the tallest person you know?” or “Who’s the best piano player you know” or “Who’
3 0.70846373 1003 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-11-$
Introduction: Felix Salmon relates the story of an economics Nobel Prize winner getting paid by a hedge fund. It would all seems pretty silly—sort of like Coca-Cola featuring Michael Jordan in their ads—except that hedge funds are disreputable nowadays and so it seems vaguely sleazy for a scholar to trade on his academic reputation to make free money in this way. It falls roughly in the same category as that notorious b-school prof in Inside Job who got $125K for writing a b.s. report about the financial stability of Iceland—and then, when they came back to him later and asked how he could’ve written it, he basically said: Hey, I don’t know anything about Iceland, I was just taking their money! That said, if a hedge fund offered me $125K to sit on their board, I’d probably take it! It’s hard to turn down free money. Or maybe not, I don’t really know. So far, when companies have paid me $, it’s been to do something for them, to consult or give a short course. I’d like to think that if
4 0.70449531 892 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-06-Info on patent trolls
Introduction: This guy (Michael Risch) actually did a survey . It seems like cheating to add actual systematic knowledge to the debate. . . . What I’m wondering is, can I file a retroactive patent on the concept of albedo? I think I could make millions off the applications to cooking alone.
5 0.70082957 1845 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-07-Is Felix Salmon wrong on free TV?
Introduction: Mark Palko writes : Salmon is dismissive of the claim that there are fifty million over-the-air television viewers: The 50 million number, by the way, should not be considered particularly reliable: it’s Aereo’s guess as to the number of people who ever watch free-to-air TV, even if they mainly watch cable or satellite. (Maybe they have a hut somewhere with an old rabbit-ear TV in it.) And he strongly suggests the number is not only smaller but shrinking. By comparison, here’s a story from the broadcasting news site TV News Check from June of last year (if anyone has more recent numbers please let me know): According to new research by GfK Media, the number of Americans now relying solely on over-the-air (OTA) television reception increased to almost 54 million, up from 46 million just a year ago. The recently completed survey also found that the demographics of broadcast-only households skew towards younger adults, minorities and lower-income families. As Palko says,
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same-blog 1 0.97184432 1231 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-27-Attention pollution
Introduction: I just got called by a robo-poll. I really think there should be a law that anyone who wants to call like this should be a real person and supply their home phone number. This sort of one-way contact is nothing more than harassment. As well as poisoning the well by reducing the inclination of people to participate in legitimate surveys.
2 0.96652567 799 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-13-Hypothesis testing with multiple imputations
Introduction: Vincent Yip writes: I have read your paper [with Kobi Abayomi and Marc Levy] regarding multiple imputation application. In order to diagnostic my imputed data, I used Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) tests to compare the distribution differences between the imputed and observed values of a single attribute as mentioned in your paper. My question is: For example I have this attribute X with the following data: (NA = missing) Original dataset: 1, NA, 3, 4, 1, 5, NA Imputed dataset: 1, 2 , 3, 4, 1, 5, 6 a) in order to run the KS test, will I treat the observed data as 1, 3, 4,1, 5? b) and for the observed data, will I treat 1, 2 , 3, 4, 1, 5, 6 as the imputed dataset for the K-S test? or just 2 ,6? c) if I used m=5, I will have 5 set of imputed data sets. How would I apply K-S test to 5 of them and compare to the single observed distribution? Do I combine the 5 imputed data set into one by averaging each imputed values so I get one single imputed data and compare with the ob
3 0.96207118 503 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-04-Clarity on my email policy
Introduction: I never read email before 4. That doesn’t mean I never send email before 4.
4 0.96161759 639 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-31-Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative?
Introduction: Radford writes : The word “conservative” gets used many ways, for various political purposes, but I would take it’s basic meaning to be someone who thinks there’s a lot of wisdom in traditional ways of doing things, even if we don’t understand exactly why those ways are good, so we should be reluctant to change unless we have a strong argument that some other way is better. This sounds very Bayesian, with a prior reducing the impact of new data. I agree completely, and I think Radford will very much enjoy my article with Aleks Jakulin , “Bayes: radical, liberal, or conservative?” Radford’s comment also fits with my increasing inclination to use informative prior distributions.
5 0.95863062 807 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-17-Macro causality
Introduction: David Backus writes: This is from my area of work, macroeconomics. The suggestion here is that the economy is growing slowly because consumers aren’t spending money. But how do we know it’s not the reverse: that consumers are spending less because the economy isn’t doing well. As a teacher, I can tell you that it’s almost impossible to get students to understand that the first statement isn’t obviously true. What I’d call the demand-side story (more spending leads to more output) is everywhere, including this piece, from the usually reliable David Leonhardt. This whole situation reminds me of the story of the village whose inhabitants support themselves by taking in each others’ laundry. I guess we’re rich enough in the U.S. that we can stay afloat for a few decades just buying things from each other? Regarding the causal question, I’d like to move away from the idea of “Does A causes B or does B cause A” and toward a more intervention-based framework (Rubin’s model for
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