andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2094 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

2094 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-08-A day with the news!


meta infos for this blog

Source: html

Introduction: One great thing about working in statistics and political science is, between them, these two subjects are connected to just about everything. From the day’s news ( sort of ): Pat Robertson Thinks Low-Carb Diets Violate God’s Principles : I wonder what Art De Vany will think of this. I had the impression that lo-carb is vaguely connected to conservative politics, that whole paleo-caveman-thing. I’d think that if Pat were a bit more plugged into the zeitgeist, he’d be pushing lo-carb as a poke in the eye at the liberal health establishment. But maybe I’m the one who’s out of touch, as can be seen from these links: A Week Into the Shutdown, Government Buys $47,174 Mechanical Bull : They should see some of the things we pay for from our NSF grant. Remember that setup we bought at the state fair where people could throw a ball at a target and try to send Mister P into the water tank? Nielsen’s New Twitter TV Ratings Are a Total Scam. Here’s Why. : This one I can def


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 One great thing about working in statistics and political science is, between them, these two subjects are connected to just about everything. [sent-1, score-0.179]

2 I had the impression that lo-carb is vaguely connected to conservative politics, that whole paleo-caveman-thing. [sent-3, score-0.284]

3 I’d think that if Pat were a bit more plugged into the zeitgeist, he’d be pushing lo-carb as a poke in the eye at the liberal health establishment. [sent-4, score-0.525]

4 Remember that setup we bought at the state fair where people could throw a ball at a target and try to send Mister P into the water tank? [sent-6, score-0.505]

5 Social media has become a bit of a fad in quantitative social science, and for good reason (new data capturing aspects of people’s lives that are not always accessible via survey interviewing), but can also get oversold. [sent-10, score-0.299]

6 So I’m happy to see some pushback on this in the popular media. [sent-11, score-0.14]

7 Next step, perhaps: a counterintuitive story in Slate explaining why Twitter ratings are not all crap. [sent-12, score-0.399]

8 This looks a lot like the gender mix of the Stan team. [sent-17, score-0.175]

9 And, no, we’re not planning to put Chelsea Clinton on our board. [sent-18, score-0.083]


similar blogs computed by tfidf model

tfidf for this blog:

wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)

[('pat', 0.258), ('twitter', 0.202), ('ratings', 0.2), ('connected', 0.179), ('gender', 0.175), ('definitely', 0.164), ('robertson', 0.148), ('zeitgeist', 0.148), ('bull', 0.14), ('diets', 0.14), ('pushback', 0.14), ('nielsen', 0.134), ('nsf', 0.129), ('buys', 0.129), ('uh', 0.129), ('tank', 0.125), ('poke', 0.125), ('plugged', 0.125), ('interviewing', 0.119), ('capturing', 0.119), ('touch', 0.117), ('counterintuitive', 0.117), ('setup', 0.113), ('violate', 0.111), ('tech', 0.109), ('relate', 0.105), ('vaguely', 0.105), ('smoking', 0.103), ('mister', 0.103), ('bought', 0.103), ('god', 0.102), ('water', 0.101), ('chart', 0.1), ('ball', 0.1), ('mechanical', 0.099), ('clinton', 0.099), ('slate', 0.097), ('pushing', 0.097), ('eye', 0.096), ('accessible', 0.095), ('tv', 0.093), ('sad', 0.09), ('de', 0.088), ('target', 0.088), ('daily', 0.087), ('art', 0.085), ('social', 0.085), ('planning', 0.083), ('liberal', 0.082), ('explaining', 0.082)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 1.0000001 2094 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-08-A day with the news!

Introduction: One great thing about working in statistics and political science is, between them, these two subjects are connected to just about everything. From the day’s news ( sort of ): Pat Robertson Thinks Low-Carb Diets Violate God’s Principles : I wonder what Art De Vany will think of this. I had the impression that lo-carb is vaguely connected to conservative politics, that whole paleo-caveman-thing. I’d think that if Pat were a bit more plugged into the zeitgeist, he’d be pushing lo-carb as a poke in the eye at the liberal health establishment. But maybe I’m the one who’s out of touch, as can be seen from these links: A Week Into the Shutdown, Government Buys $47,174 Mechanical Bull : They should see some of the things we pay for from our NSF grant. Remember that setup we bought at the state fair where people could throw a ball at a target and try to send Mister P into the water tank? Nielsen’s New Twitter TV Ratings Are a Total Scam. Here’s Why. : This one I can def

2 0.095519952 828 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-28-Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias

Introduction: Respected political scientist Tim Groseclose just came out with a book, “Left Turn: How Liberal Media Bias Distorts the American Mind.” I was familiar with Groseclose’s article (with Jeffrey Milyo) on media bias that came out several years ago–it was an interesting study but I was not convinced by its central claim that they were measuring an absolute level of bias–and then recently heard about this new book in the context of some intemperate things Groseclose said in a interview on the conservative Fox TV network. Groseclose’s big conclusion is that in the absence of media bias, the average American voter would be positioned at around 25 on a 0-100 scale, where 0 is a right-wing Republican and 100 is a left-wing Democrat. (Seeing as the number line is conventionally drawn from left to right, I think it would make more sense for 0 to represent the left and 100 to be on the right, but I guess it’s too late for him to change now.) Groseclose places the average voter now at around

3 0.095001236 238 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-27-No radon lobby

Introduction: Kaiser writes thoughtfully about the costs, benefits, and incentives for different policy recommendation options regarding a recent water crisis. Good stuff: it’s solid “freakonomics”–and I mean this in positive way: a mix of economic and statistical analysis, with assumptions stated clearly. Kaiser writes: Using the framework from Chapter 4, we should think about the incentives facing the Mass. Water Resources Authority: A false positive error (people asked to throw out water when water is clean) means people stop drinking tap water temporarily, perhaps switching to bottled water, and the officials claim victory when no one falls sick, and businesses that produce bottled water experience a jump in sales. It is also very difficult to prove a “false positive” when people have stopped drinking the water. So this type of error is easy to hide behind. A false negative error (people told it’s safe to drink water when water is polluted) becomes apparent when someone falls sick

4 0.089472175 520 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-17-R Advertised

Introduction: The R language is definitely going mainstream:

5 0.087781206 2255 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-19-How Americans vote

Introduction: An interview with me from 2012 : You’re a statistician and wrote a book,  Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State , looking at why Americans vote the way they do. In an election year I think it would be a good time to revisit that question, not just for people in the US, but anyone around the world who wants to understand the realities – rather than the stereotypes – of how Americans vote. I regret the title I gave my book. I was too greedy. I wanted it to be an airport bestseller because I figured there were millions of people who are interested in politics and some subset of them are always looking at the statistics. It’s got a very grabby title and as a result people underestimated the content. They thought it was a popularisation of my work, or, at best, an expansion of an article we’d written. But it had tons of original material. If I’d given it a more serious, political science-y title, then all sorts of people would have wanted to read it, because they would

6 0.08424297 1795 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-09-Recently and not-so-recently in the sister blog

7 0.081511959 652 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-07-Minor-league Stats Predict Major-league Performance, Sarah Palin, and Some Differences Between Baseball and Politics

8 0.08060015 1785 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-02-So much artistic talent

9 0.080317318 604 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-08-More on the missing conservative psychology researchers

10 0.078101903 2096 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-10-Schiminovich is on The Simpsons

11 0.078026123 2187 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-26-Twitter sucks, and people are gullible as f…

12 0.074395791 1832 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-29-The blogroll

13 0.073954776 1823 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-24-The Tweets-Votes Curve

14 0.071221337 2084 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-01-Doing Data Science: What’s it all about?

15 0.070467152 1579 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-16-Hacks, maps, and moon rocks: Recent items in the sister blog

16 0.070244662 2016 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-11-Zipfian Academy, A School for Data Science

17 0.069177277 1845 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-07-Is Felix Salmon wrong on free TV?

18 0.068900369 102 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-21-Why modern art is all in the mind

19 0.068873398 413 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-14-Statistics of food consumption

20 0.068791173 456 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-The red-state, blue-state war is happening in the upper half of the income distribution


similar blogs computed by lsi model

lsi for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(0, 0.143), (1, -0.076), (2, 0.002), (3, 0.047), (4, 0.003), (5, 0.036), (6, -0.022), (7, -0.026), (8, -0.024), (9, 0.01), (10, -0.046), (11, -0.036), (12, 0.006), (13, 0.008), (14, 0.006), (15, 0.018), (16, 0.006), (17, 0.011), (18, 0.009), (19, -0.017), (20, 0.011), (21, -0.036), (22, -0.075), (23, -0.028), (24, -0.015), (25, 0.03), (26, -0.005), (27, -0.005), (28, -0.004), (29, 0.023), (30, 0.005), (31, -0.007), (32, -0.007), (33, -0.005), (34, -0.019), (35, 0.038), (36, -0.015), (37, -0.009), (38, 0.005), (39, -0.008), (40, 0.039), (41, 0.035), (42, 0.007), (43, -0.017), (44, 0.036), (45, 0.028), (46, 0.005), (47, 0.031), (48, 0.002), (49, -0.028)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.95699817 2094 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-08-A day with the news!

Introduction: One great thing about working in statistics and political science is, between them, these two subjects are connected to just about everything. From the day’s news ( sort of ): Pat Robertson Thinks Low-Carb Diets Violate God’s Principles : I wonder what Art De Vany will think of this. I had the impression that lo-carb is vaguely connected to conservative politics, that whole paleo-caveman-thing. I’d think that if Pat were a bit more plugged into the zeitgeist, he’d be pushing lo-carb as a poke in the eye at the liberal health establishment. But maybe I’m the one who’s out of touch, as can be seen from these links: A Week Into the Shutdown, Government Buys $47,174 Mechanical Bull : They should see some of the things we pay for from our NSF grant. Remember that setup we bought at the state fair where people could throw a ball at a target and try to send Mister P into the water tank? Nielsen’s New Twitter TV Ratings Are a Total Scam. Here’s Why. : This one I can def

2 0.73008889 827 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-28-Amusing case of self-defeating science writing

Introduction: We’re all familiar with the gee-whiz style of science and technology writing in which hardly a day dawns without a cure for cancer, or a new pollution-free energy source, or some other amazing breakthrough. We don’t always get the privilege of seeing such reporting shot down the moment it hits the presses. Here’s journalist Matthew Philips: What does it take for an idea to spread from one to many? For a minority opinion to become the majority belief? According to a new study by scientists at the Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, the answer is 10%. Once 10% of a population is committed to an idea, it’s inevitable that it will eventually become the prevailing opinion of the entire group. The key is to remain committed. . . . The research actually validates the entrenched strategy of the handful of House Republicans threatening to sink John Boehner‘s budget proposal. Turns out if you’re in the minority, you have less of an incentive to compromise than the majority does. Because if

3 0.72051781 2216 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-18-Florida backlash

Introduction: In a post entitled, “A holiday message from the creative class to Richard Florida — screw you,” Mark Palko argues that Florida’s famous theories about the rise of the creative class have not held up over time: Florida paints a bright picture of these people and their future, with rapidly increasing numbers, influence and wealth. He goes so far as to say “Places that succeed in attracting and retaining creative class people prosper; those that fail don’t.” . . . But, Palko argues, Except for a few special cases, this may be the worst time to make a living in the arts since the emergence of modern newspapers and general interest magazines and other mass media a hundred and twenty years ago . . . Though we now have tools that make creating and disseminating art easier than ever, no one has come up with a viable business model that supports creation in today’s economy. . . . OK, fine, so individual creatives aren’t doing so well? But what about the larger urban economies? P

4 0.71856898 75 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Is the cyber mob a threat to freedom?”

Introduction: This one was so dumb I couldn’t resist sharing it with you. TEMPLETON BOOK FORUM invites you to “Is the Cyber Mob a Threat to Freedom?” featuring Ron Rosenbaum, Slate, Lee Siegel, The New York Observer, moderated by Michael Goodwin, The New York Post New Threats to Freedom Today’s threats to freedom are “much less visible and obvious than they were in the 20th century and may even appear in the guise of social and political progress,” writes Adam Bellow in his introduction to the new essay collection that he has edited for the Templeton Press. Indeed, Bellow suggests, the danger often lies precisely in our “failure or reluctance to notice them.” According to Ron Rosenbaum and Lee Siegel, in their provocative contributions to the volume, the extraordinary advances made possible by the Internet have come at a sometimes worrisome cost. Rosenbaum focuses on how online anonymity has become a mask encouraging political discourse that is increasingly distorted by vitriol, abuse, and

5 0.71604103 1947 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-20-We are what we are studying

Introduction: Anthropologist Marshall Sahlins writes : When native Australians or New Guineans say that their totemic animals and plants are their kinsmen – that these species are persons like themselves, and that in offering them to others they are giving away part of their own substance – we have to take them seriously, which is to say empirically, if we want to understand the large consequences of these facts for how they organise their lives. The graveyard of ethnographic studies is strewn with the remains of reports which, thanks to anthropologists’ own presuppositions as to what constitutes empirical fact, were content to ignore or debunk the Amazonian peoples who said that the animals they hunted were their brothers-in-law, the Africans who described the way they systematically killed their kings when they became weak, or the Fijian chiefs who claimed they were gods. My first thought was . . . wait a minute! Whazzat with “presuppositions as to what constitutes empirical fact”? That a

6 0.71493846 760 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-12-How To Party Your Way Into a Multi-Million Dollar Facebook Job

7 0.70783049 812 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-21-Confusion about “rigging the numbers,” the support of ideological opposites, who’s a 501(c)(3), and the asymmetry of media bias

8 0.70130014 1892 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-10-I don’t think we get much out of framing politics as the Tragic Vision vs. the Utopian Vision

9 0.70068592 588 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-24-In case you were wondering, here’s the price of milk

10 0.69682395 2026 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-16-He’s adult entertainer, Child educator, King of the crossfader, He’s the greatest of the greater, He’s a big bad wolf in your neighborhood, Not bad meaning bad but bad meaning good

11 0.69678444 828 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-28-Thoughts on Groseclose book on media bias

12 0.69281369 2167 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-10-Do you believe that “humans and other living things have evolved over time”?

13 0.69147825 1347 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-27-Macromuddle

14 0.69101453 382 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-30-“Presidential Election Outcomes Directly Influence Suicide Rates”

15 0.68375367 1479 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-01-Mothers and Moms

16 0.68055433 143 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-Statistical fact checking needed, or, No, Ronald Reagan did not win “overwhelming support from evangelicals”

17 0.67933917 1148 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-31-“the forces of native stupidity reinforced by that blind hostility to criticism, reform, new ideas and superior ability which is human as well as academic nature”

18 0.67500675 130 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-07-A False Consensus about Public Opinion on Torture

19 0.67104334 666 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-18-American Beliefs about Economic Opportunity and Income Inequality

20 0.66666341 45 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-20-Domain specificity: Does being really really smart or really really rich qualify you to make economic policy?


similar blogs computed by lda model

lda for this blog:

topicId topicWeight

[(3, 0.012), (5, 0.046), (9, 0.012), (16, 0.034), (18, 0.022), (21, 0.066), (22, 0.082), (24, 0.095), (33, 0.023), (40, 0.047), (42, 0.034), (48, 0.011), (53, 0.024), (57, 0.011), (65, 0.049), (69, 0.02), (83, 0.012), (90, 0.053), (95, 0.049), (97, 0.012), (99, 0.213)]

similar blogs list:

simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle

same-blog 1 0.92207652 2094 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-08-A day with the news!

Introduction: One great thing about working in statistics and political science is, between them, these two subjects are connected to just about everything. From the day’s news ( sort of ): Pat Robertson Thinks Low-Carb Diets Violate God’s Principles : I wonder what Art De Vany will think of this. I had the impression that lo-carb is vaguely connected to conservative politics, that whole paleo-caveman-thing. I’d think that if Pat were a bit more plugged into the zeitgeist, he’d be pushing lo-carb as a poke in the eye at the liberal health establishment. But maybe I’m the one who’s out of touch, as can be seen from these links: A Week Into the Shutdown, Government Buys $47,174 Mechanical Bull : They should see some of the things we pay for from our NSF grant. Remember that setup we bought at the state fair where people could throw a ball at a target and try to send Mister P into the water tank? Nielsen’s New Twitter TV Ratings Are a Total Scam. Here’s Why. : This one I can def

2 0.88124537 1037 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-01-Lamentably common misunderstanding of meritocracy

Introduction: Tyler Cowen pointed to an article by business-school professor Luigi Zingales about meritocracy. I’d expect a b-school prof to support the idea of meritocracy, and Zingales does not disappoint. But he says a bunch of other things that to me represent a confused conflation of ideas. Here’s Zingales: America became known as a land of opportunity—a place whose capitalist system benefited the hardworking and the virtuous [emphasis added]. In a word, it was a meritocracy. That’s interesting—and revealing. Here’s what I get when I look up “meritocracy” in the dictionary : 1 : a system in which the talented are chosen and moved ahead on the basis of their achievement 2 : leadership selected on the basis of intellectual criteria Nothing here about “hardworking” or “virtuous.” In a meritocracy, you can be as hardworking as John Kruk or as virtuous as Kobe Bryant and you’ll still get ahead—if you have the talent and achievement. Throwing in “hardworking” and “virtuous”

3 0.87525809 448 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-03-This is a footnote in one of my papers

Introduction: In the annals of hack literature, it is sometimes said that if you aim to write best-selling crap, all you’ll end up with is crap. To truly produce best-selling crap, you have to have a conviction, perhaps misplaced, that your writing has integrity. Whether or not this is a good generalization about writing, I have seen an analogous phenomenon in statistics: If you try to do nothing but model the data, you can be in for a wild and unpleasant ride: real data always seem to have one more twist beyond our ability to model (von Neumann’s elephant’s trunk notwithstanding). But if you model the underlying process, sometimes your model can fit surprisingly well as well as inviting openings for future research progress.

4 0.87112415 2052 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-05-Give me a ticket for an aeroplane

Introduction: How long are songs? Gabriel Rossman discusses the two peaks, one at just under 3 minutes and one at just under 4 minutes. He quotes musician Jacob Slichter: In anticipation of “crossing over” the single to radio formats . . . Each mix had to be edited down to under four minutes, an important limit in the mind of radio programmers. (To submit a single with a track length of 4:01 is as foolish as pricing kitchen knives sold on television at $20.01). We pestered Bob Ludwig, the mastering engineer, with a slew of editing adjustments. “Okay, shorten the intro to what it was two verses ago, cut eight bars off the end of the bridge, and undo the cuts we asked you to make to the final chorus.”

5 0.86839771 145 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-13-Statistical controversy regarding human rights violations in Colomnbia

Introduction: Megan Price wrote in that she and Daniel Guzmán of the Benetech Human Rights Program released a paper today entitled “Comments to the article ‘Is Violence Against Union Members in Colombia Systematic and Targeted?’” (o aqui en español), which examines an article written by Colombian academics Daniel Mejía and María José Uribe. Price writes [in the third person]: The paper reviewed by Price and Guzmán concluded that “. . . on average, violence against unionists in Colombia is neither systematic nor targeted.” However, in their response, Price and Guzmán present – in technical and methodological detail – the reasons they find the conclusions in Mejía and Uribe’s study to be overstated. Price and Guzmán believe that weaknesses in the data, in the choice of the statistical model, and the interpretation of the model used in Mejía and Uribe’s study, all raise serious questions about the authors’ strong causal conclusions. Price and Guzmán point out that unchecked, those conclusio

6 0.86777294 2123 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-04-Tesla fires!

7 0.86739445 385 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked

8 0.86572421 1216 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-17-Modeling group-level predictors in a multilevel regression

9 0.86416721 477 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-Costless false beliefs

10 0.86336768 1545 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-23-Two postdoc opportunities to work with our research group!! (apply by 15 Nov 2012)

11 0.86335528 1398 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-28-Every time you take a sample, you’ll have to pay this guy a quarter

12 0.86328268 2167 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-10-Do you believe that “humans and other living things have evolved over time”?

13 0.86139119 1964 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-01-Non-topical blogging

14 0.86115962 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform

15 0.86041862 2340 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-20-Thermodynamic Monte Carlo: Michael Betancourt’s new method for simulating from difficult distributions and evaluating normalizing constants

16 0.86020017 2018 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-12-Do you ever have that I-just-fit-a-model feeling?

17 0.85910344 1161 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-10-If an entire article in Computational Statistics and Data Analysis were put together from other, unacknowledged, sources, would that be a work of art?

18 0.85659462 879 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-29-New journal on causal inference

19 0.85651082 670 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-20-Attractive but hard-to-read graph could be made much much better

20 0.85627306 416 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-16-Is parenting a form of addiction?