andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1433 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Mayo points me to this discussion [link fixed] on parsimony by philosopher Elliott Sober. I don’t really understand what he’s talking about but I am posting the link here because it might interest some of you. P.S. More discussion on this from Mayo here .
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1 Mayo points me to this discussion [link fixed] on parsimony by philosopher Elliott Sober. [sent-1, score-1.05]
2 I don’t really understand what he’s talking about but I am posting the link here because it might interest some of you. [sent-2, score-1.047]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1433 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-28-LOL without the CATS
Introduction: Mayo points me to this discussion [link fixed] on parsimony by philosopher Elliott Sober. I don’t really understand what he’s talking about but I am posting the link here because it might interest some of you. P.S. More discussion on this from Mayo here .
2 0.27250966 890 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-05-Error statistics
Introduction: New blog from the philosopher Deborah Mayo who I think agrees with me about many statistical issues although from a non-Bayesian perspective. But I disagree with her when she writes that certain criticisms of frequentist statistical methods “keep popping up (verbatim) in every Bayesian textbook and article on philosophical foundations.” I’ve written a couple of Bayesian textbooks and some articles on philosophical foundations, and I don’t think I do this! That said, I think Mayo has a lot to say, so I wouldn’t judge her whole blog (let alone her published work) based on that one intemperate statement.
3 0.21650591 932 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-30-Articles on the philosophy of Bayesian statistics by Cox, Mayo, Senn, and others!
Introduction: Deborah Mayo, Aris Spanos, and Kent Staley edited a special issue on the philosophy of Bayesian statistics for the journal Rationality, Markets and Morals. Here are the contents : David Cox and Deborah G. Mayo, “Statistical Scientist Meets a Philosopher of Science: A Conversation” Deborah G. Mayo, “Statistical Science and Philosophy of Science: Where Do/Should They Meet in 2011 (and Beyond)?” Stephen Senn, “You May Believe You Are a Bayesian But You Are Probably Wrong” Andrew Gelman, “ Induction and Deduction in Bayesian Data Analysis “ Jan Sprenger, “The Renegade Subjectivist: Jose Bernardo’s Objective Bayesianism” Aris Spanos. “Foundational Issues in Statistical Modeling: Statistical Model Specification and Validation” David F. Hendry, “Empirical Economic Model Discovery and Theory Evaluation” Larry Wasserman, “Low Assumptions, High Dimensions” For some reason, not all the articles are yet online, but it says they’re coming soon. In the meantime, you ca
4 0.15564215 1181 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-23-Philosophy: Pointer to Salmon
Introduction: Larry Brownstein writes: I read your article on induction and deduction and your comments on Deborah Mayo’s approach and thought you might find the following useful in this discussion. It is Wesley Salmon’s Reality and Rationality (2005). Here he argues that Bayesian inferential procedures can replace the hypothetical-deductive method aka the Hempel-Oppenheim theory of explanation. He is concerned about the subjectivity problem, so takes a frequentist approach to the use of Bayes in this context. Hardly anyone agrees that the H-D approach accounts for scientific explanation. The problem has been to find a replacement. Salmon thought he had found it. I don’t know this book—but that’s no surprise since I know just about none of the philosophy of science literature that came after Popper, Kuhn, and Lakatos. That’s why I collaborated with Cosma Shalizi. He’s the one who connected me to Deborah Mayo and who put in the recent philosophy references in our articles. Anyway, I’m pa
5 0.14288372 1205 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-09-Coming to agreement on philosophy of statistics
Introduction: Deborah Mayo collected some reactions to my recent article , Induction and Deduction in Bayesian Data Analysis. I’m pleased that that everybody (philosopher Mayo, applied statistician Stephen Senn, and theoretical statistician Larry Wasserman) is so positive about my article and that nobody’s defending the sort of hard-core inductivism that’s featured on the Bayesian inference wikipedia page. Here’s the Wikipedia definition, which I disagree with: Bayesian inference uses aspects of the scientific method, which involves collecting evidence that is meant to be consistent or inconsistent with a given hypothesis. As evidence accumulates, the degree of belief in a hypothesis ought to change. With enough evidence, it should become very high or very low. . . . Bayesian inference uses a numerical estimate of the degree of belief in a hypothesis before evidence has been observed and calculates a numerical estimate of the degree of belief in the hypothesis after evidence has been obse
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same-blog 1 0.98037636 1433 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-28-LOL without the CATS
Introduction: Mayo points me to this discussion [link fixed] on parsimony by philosopher Elliott Sober. I don’t really understand what he’s talking about but I am posting the link here because it might interest some of you. P.S. More discussion on this from Mayo here .
2 0.77407616 1257 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-10-Statisticians’ abbreviations are even less interesting than these!
Introduction: From AC, AI, and AIH to WAHM, WOHM, and WM. P.S. That was all pretty pointless, so I’ll throw in this viral Jim Henson link (from the same source) for free.
3 0.71659482 587 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-24-5 seconds of every #1 pop single
Introduction: This is pretty amazing. Now I want to hear volume 3. Also is there a way to download this as I play it so I can listen when I’m offline? P.S. Typo in title fixed. P.P.S. I originally gave a different link but was led to the apparently more definitive link above (which allows direct download) from a commenter . Thanks!
4 0.69593382 2283 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-06-An old discussion of food deserts
Introduction: I happened to be reading an old comment thread from 2012 (follow the link from here ) and came across this amusing exchange: Perhaps this is the paper Jonathan was talking about? Here’s more from the thread: Anyway, I don’t have anything to add right now, I just thought it was an interesting discussion.
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Introduction: Fun stories here (from Kliph Nesteroff, link from Mark Palko).
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same-blog 1 0.86168265 1433 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-28-LOL without the CATS
Introduction: Mayo points me to this discussion [link fixed] on parsimony by philosopher Elliott Sober. I don’t really understand what he’s talking about but I am posting the link here because it might interest some of you. P.S. More discussion on this from Mayo here .
2 0.81305927 1558 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-02-Not so fast on levees and seawalls for NY harbor?
Introduction: I was talking with June Williamson and mentioned offhand that I’d seen something in the paper saying that if only we’d invested a few billion dollars in levees we would’ve saved zillions in economic damage from the flood. (A quick search also revealed this eerily prescient article from last month and, more recently, this online discussion.) June said, No, no, no: levees are not the way to go: Here and here are the articles on “soft infrastructure” for the New York-New Jersey Harbor I was mentioning, summarizing work that is more extensively published in two books, “Rising Currents” and “On the Water: Palisade Bay”: The hazards posed by climate change, sea level rise, and severe storm surges make this the time to transform our coastal cities through adaptive design. The conventional response to flooding, in recent history, has been hard engineering — fortifying the coastal infrastructure with seawalls and bulkheads to protect real estate at the expense of natural t
3 0.77735639 16 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling
Introduction: This is my last entry derived from Anthony Burgess’s book reviews , and it’ll be short. His review of Angus Wilson’s “The Strange Ride of Rudyard Kipling: His Life and Works” is a wonderfully balanced little thing. Nothing incredibly deep–like most items in the collection, the review is only two pages long–but I give it credit for being a rare piece of Kipling criticism I’ve seen that (a) seriously engages with the politics, without (b) congratulating itself on bravely going against the fashions of the politically incorrect chattering classes by celebrating Kipling’s magnificent achievement blah blah blah. Instead, Burgess shows respect for Kipling’s work and puts it in historical, biographical, and literary context. Burgess concludes that Wilson’s book “reminds us, in John Gross’s words, that Kipling ‘remains a haunting, unsettling presence, with whom we still have to come to terms.’ Still.” Well put, and generous of Burgess to end his review with another’s quote. Other cri
4 0.75987935 1370 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Duncan Watts and the Titanic
Introduction: Daniel Mendelsohn recently asked , “Why do we love the Titanic?”, seeking to understand how it has happened that: It may not be true that ‘the three most written-about subjects of all time are Jesus, the Civil War, and the Titanic,’ as one historian has put it, but it’s not much of an exaggeration. . . . The inexhaustible interest suggests that the Titanic’s story taps a vein much deeper than the morbid fascination that has attached to other disasters. The explosion of the Hindenburg, for instance, and even the torpedoing, just three years after the Titanic sank, of the Lusitania, another great liner whose passenger list boasted the rich and the famous, were calamities that shocked the world but have failed to generate an obsessive preoccupation. . . . If the Titanic has gripped our imagination so forcefully for the past century, it must be because of something bigger than any fact of social or political or cultural history. To get to the bottom of why we can’t forget it, yo
5 0.75970507 1975 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-09-Understanding predictive information criteria for Bayesian models
Introduction: Jessy, Aki, and I write : We review the Akaike, deviance, and Watanabe-Akaike information criteria from a Bayesian perspective, where the goal is to estimate expected out-of-sample-prediction error using a bias-corrected adjustment of within-sample error. We focus on the choices involved in setting up these measures, and we compare them in three simple examples, one theoretical and two applied. The contribution of this review is to put all these information criteria into a Bayesian predictive context and to better understand, through small examples, how these methods can apply in practice. I like this paper. It came about as a result of preparing Chapter 7 for the new BDA . I had difficulty understanding AIC, DIC, WAIC, etc., but I recognized that these methods served a need. My first plan was to just apply DIC and WAIC on a couple of simple examples (a linear regression and the 8 schools) and leave it at that. But when I did the calculations, I couldn’t understand the resu
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