andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-667 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I bought something online and got a gift certificate for $5 to use at BustedTees.com. The gift code is TP07zh4q5dc and it expires on 30 Apr. I don’t need a T-shirt so I’ll pass this on to you. I assume it only works once. So the first person who follows up on this gets the discount. Enjoy!
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2 The gift code is TP07zh4q5dc and it expires on 30 Apr. [sent-3, score-1.135]
3 I don’t need a T-shirt so I’ll pass this on to you. [sent-4, score-0.316]
4 So the first person who follows up on this gets the discount. [sent-6, score-0.538]
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same-blog 1 1.0 667 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-19-Free $5 gift certificate!
Introduction: I bought something online and got a gift certificate for $5 to use at BustedTees.com. The gift code is TP07zh4q5dc and it expires on 30 Apr. I don’t need a T-shirt so I’ll pass this on to you. I assume it only works once. So the first person who follows up on this gets the discount. Enjoy!
2 0.22901998 460 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Statistics gifts?
Introduction: The American Statistical Association has an annual recommended gift list. (I think they had Red State, Blue State on the list a couple years ago.) They need some more suggestions in the next couple of days. Does anybody have any ideas?
3 0.1890223 78 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-10-Hey, where’s my kickback?
Introduction: I keep hearing about textbook publishers who practically bribe instructors to assign their textbooks to students. And then I received this (unsolicited) email: You have recently been sent Pearson (Allyn & Bacon, Longman, Prentice Hall) texts to review for your summer and fall courses. As a thank you for reviewing our texts, I would like to invite you to participate in a brief survey (attached). If you have any questions about the survey, are not sure which books you have been sent, or if you would like to receive instructor’s materials, desk copies, etc. please let me know! If you have recently received your course assignments – let me know as well . Additionally, if you have decided to use a Pearson book in your summer or fall courses, I will provide you with an ISBN that will include discounts and resources for your students at no extra cost! All you have to do is answer the 3 simple questions on the attached survey and you will receive a $10.00 Dunkin Donuts gift card.
4 0.14899874 1843 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-05-The New York Times Book of Mathematics
Introduction: This was an good idea: take a bunch of old (and some recent) news articles on developments in mathematics and related ares from the past hundred years. Fun for the math content and historical/nostalgia value. Relive the four-color theorem, Fermat, fractals, and early computing. I have too much of a technical bent to be the ideal reader for this sort of book, but it seems like an excellent gift for a non-technical reader who nonetheless enjoys math. (I assume that such people are out there, just as there are people like me who can’t read music but still enjoy reading about the subject.) The book is organized by topic. My own preference would have been chronological and with more old stuff. I particularly enjoyed the material from many decades ago, such as the news report on one of the early computers. This must have been a fun book to compile.
5 0.084376097 732 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-26-What Do We Learn from Narrow Randomized Studies?
Introduction: Under the headline, “A Raise Won’t Make You Work Harder,” Ray Fisman writes : To understand why it might be a bad idea to cut wages in recessions, it’s useful to know how workers respond to changes in pay–both positive and negative changes. Discussion on the topic goes back at least as far as Henry Ford’s “5 dollars a day,” which he paid to assembly line workers in 1914. The policy was revolutionary at the time, as the wages were more than double what his competitors were paying. This wasn’t charity. Higher-paid workers were efficient workers–Ford attracted the best mechanics to his plant, and the high pay ensured that employees worked hard throughout their eight-hour shifts, knowing that if their pace slackened, they’d be out of a job. Raising salaries to boost productivity became known as “efficiency wages.” So far, so good. Fisman then moves from history and theory to recent research: How much gift exchange really matters to American bosses and workers remained largely a
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20 0.048360016 840 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-05-An example of Bayesian model averaging
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same-blog 1 0.96555066 667 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-19-Free $5 gift certificate!
Introduction: I bought something online and got a gift certificate for $5 to use at BustedTees.com. The gift code is TP07zh4q5dc and it expires on 30 Apr. I don’t need a T-shirt so I’ll pass this on to you. I assume it only works once. So the first person who follows up on this gets the discount. Enjoy!
2 0.62434846 1211 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-13-A personal bit of spam, just for me!
Introduction: Hi Andrew, I came across your site while searching for blogs and posts around American obesity and wanted to reach out to get your readership’s feedback on an infographic my team built which focuses on the obesity of America and where we could end up at the going rate. If you’re interested, let’s connect. Have a great weekend! Thanks. *** I have to say, that’s pretty pitiful, to wish someone a “great weekend” on a Tuesday! This guy’s gotta ratchet up his sophistication a few notches if he ever wants to get a job as a spammer for a major software company , for example.
3 0.60492581 2089 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-04-Shlemiel the Software Developer and Unknown Unknowns
Introduction: The Stan meeting today reminded me of Joel Spolsky’s recasting of the Yiddish joke about Shlemiel the Painter. Joel retold it on his blog, Joel on Software , in the post Back to Basics : Shlemiel gets a job as a street painter, painting the dotted lines down the middle of the road. On the first day he takes a can of paint out to the road and finishes 300 yards of the road. “That’s pretty good!” says his boss, “you’re a fast worker!” and pays him a kopeck. The next day Shlemiel only gets 150 yards done. “Well, that’s not nearly as good as yesterday, but you’re still a fast worker. 150 yards is respectable,” and pays him a kopeck. The next day Shlemiel paints 30 yards of the road. “Only 30!” shouts his boss. “That’s unacceptable! On the first day you did ten times that much work! What’s going on?” “I can’t help it,” says Shlemiel. “Every day I get farther and farther away from the paint can!” Joel used it as an example of the kind of string processing naive programmers ar
4 0.59978908 1009 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-14-Wickham R short course
Introduction: Hadley writes: I [Hadley] am going to be teaching an R development master class in New York City on Dec 12-13. The basic idea of the class is to help you write better code, focused on the mantra of “do not repeat yourself”. In day one you will learn powerful new tools of abstraction, allowing you to solve a wider range of problems with fewer lines of code. Day two will teach you how to make packages, the fundamental unit of code distribution in R, allowing others to save time by allowing them to use your code. To get the most out of this course, you should have some experience programming in R already: you should be familiar with writing functions, and the basic data structures of R: vectors, matrices, arrays, lists and data frames. You will find the course particularly useful if you’re an experienced R user looking to take the next step, or if you’re moving to R from other programming languages and you want to quickly get up to speed with R’s unique features. A coupl
5 0.59232956 1807 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-17-Data problems, coding errors…what can be done?
Introduction: This post is by Phil A recent post on this blog discusses a prominent case of an Excel error leading to substantially wrong results from a statistical analysis. Excel is notorious for this because it is easy to add a row or column of data (or intermediate results) but forget to update equations so that they correctly use the new data. That particular error is less common in a language like R because R programmers usually refer to data by variable name (or by applying functions to a named variable), so the same code works even if you add or remove data. Still, there is plenty of opportunity for errors no matter what language one uses. Andrew ran into problems fairly recently, and also blogged about another instance. I’ve never had to retract a paper, but that’s partly because I haven’t published a whole lot of papers. Certainly I have found plenty of substantial errors pretty late in some of my data analyses, and I obviously don’t have sufficient mechanisms in place to be sure
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same-blog 1 0.87006938 667 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-19-Free $5 gift certificate!
Introduction: I bought something online and got a gift certificate for $5 to use at BustedTees.com. The gift code is TP07zh4q5dc and it expires on 30 Apr. I don’t need a T-shirt so I’ll pass this on to you. I assume it only works once. So the first person who follows up on this gets the discount. Enjoy!
2 0.86539316 323 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-06-Sociotropic Voting and the Media
Introduction: Stephen Ansolabehere, Marc Meredith, and Erik Snowberg write : The literature on economic voting notes that voters’ subjective evaluations of the overall state of the economy are correlated with vote choice, whereas personal economic experiences are not. Missing from this literature is a description of how voters acquire information about the general state of the economy, and how that information is used to form perceptions. In order to begin understanding this process, we [Ansolabehere, Meredith, and Snowberg] asked a series of questions on the 2006 ANES Pilot about respondents’ perceptions of the average price of gas and the unemployment rate in their home state. We find that questions about gas prices and unemployment show differences in the sources of information about these two economic variables. Information about unemployment rates come from media sources, and are systematically biased by partisan factors. Information about gas prices, in contrast, comes only from everyday
3 0.83189857 1181 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-23-Philosophy: Pointer to Salmon
Introduction: Larry Brownstein writes: I read your article on induction and deduction and your comments on Deborah Mayo’s approach and thought you might find the following useful in this discussion. It is Wesley Salmon’s Reality and Rationality (2005). Here he argues that Bayesian inferential procedures can replace the hypothetical-deductive method aka the Hempel-Oppenheim theory of explanation. He is concerned about the subjectivity problem, so takes a frequentist approach to the use of Bayes in this context. Hardly anyone agrees that the H-D approach accounts for scientific explanation. The problem has been to find a replacement. Salmon thought he had found it. I don’t know this book—but that’s no surprise since I know just about none of the philosophy of science literature that came after Popper, Kuhn, and Lakatos. That’s why I collaborated with Cosma Shalizi. He’s the one who connected me to Deborah Mayo and who put in the recent philosophy references in our articles. Anyway, I’m pa
4 0.81289983 490 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-29-Brain Structure and the Big Five
Introduction: Many years ago, a research psychologist whose judgment I greatly respect told me that the characterization of personality by the so-called Big Five traits (extraversion, etc.) was old-fashioned. So I’m always surprised to see that the Big Five keeps cropping up. I guess not everyone agrees that it’s a bad idea. For example, Hamdan Azhar wrote to me: I was wondering if you’d seen this recent paper (De Young et al. 2010) that finds significant correlations between brain volume in selected regions and personality trait measures (from the Big Five). This is quite a ground-breaking finding and it was covered extensively in the mainstream media. I think readers of your blog would be interested in your thoughts, statistically speaking, on their methodology and findings. My reply: I’d be interested in my thoughts on this too! But I don’t know enough to say anything useful. From the abstract of the paper under discussion: Controlling for age, sex, and whole-brain volume
5 0.7632013 235 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-25-Term Limits for the Supreme Court?
Introduction: In the wake of the confirmation of Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court, political commentators have been expressing a bit of frustration about polarization within the court and polarization in the nomination process. One proposal that’s been floating around is to replace lifetime appointments by fixed terms, perhaps twelve or eighteen years. This would enforce a regular schedule of replacements, instead of the current system in which eighty-something judges have an incentive to hang on as long as possible so as to time their retirements to be during the administration of a politically-compatible president. A couple weeks ago at the sister blog, John Sides discussed some recent research that was relevant to the judicial term limits proposal. Political scientists Justin Crowe and Chris Karpowitz analyzed the historical record or Supreme Court terms and found that long terms of twenty years or more have been happening since the early years of the court. Yes, there is less turnover th
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