andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2077 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Yup.
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Introduction: Yup.
2 0.10022262 1714 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-09-Partial least squares path analysis
Introduction: Wayne Folta writes: I [Folta] was looking for R packages to address a project I’m working on and stumbled onto a package called ‘plspm’. It seems to be a nice package, but the thing I wanted to pass on is the PDF that Gaston Sanchez, its author, wrote that describes PLS Path Analysis in general and shows how to use plspm in particular. It’s like a 200-page R vignette that’s really informative and fun to read. I’d recommend it to you and your readers: even if you don’t want to delve into PLS and plspm deeply, the first seven pages and the Appendix A provide a great read about a grad student, PLS Path Analysis, and the history of the field. It’s written at a more popular level than you might like. For example, he says at one point: “A moderating effect is the fancy term that some authors use to say that there is a nosy variable M influencing the effect between an independent variable X and a dependent variable Y.” You would obviously never write anything like that [yup --- AG]
Introduction: John Cook writes : When I hear someone say “personalized medicine” I want to ask “as opposed to what?” All medicine is personalized. If you are in an emergency room with a broken leg and the person next to you is lapsing into a diabetic coma, the two of you will be treated differently. The aim of personalized medicine is to increase the degree of personalization, not to introduce personalization. . . . This to me is a statistical way of thinking, to change an “Is it or isn’t it?” question into a “How much?” question. This distinction arises in many settings but particularly in discussions of causal inference, for example here and here , where I use the “statistical thinking” approach of imagining everything as being on some continuous scale, in contrast to computer scientist Elias Bareinboim and psychology researcher Steven Sloman, both of whom prefer what might be called the “civilian” or “common sense” idea that effects are either real or not, or that certain data can
4 0.043638162 1442 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-03-Double standard? Plagiarizing journos get slammed, plagiarizing profs just shrug it off
Introduction: Dan Kahan writes on what seems to be the topic of the week : In reflecting on Lehrer , I [Kahan] have to wonder why the sanction is so much more severe — basically career “death penalty” subject to parole [I think he means "life imprisonment" --- ed.], I suppose, if he manages decades of “good behavior” — for this science journalist when scholars who stick plagiarized material in their “popular science” writing don’t even get slap on wrist — more like shrug of the shoulders. I do think the behavior is comparable; if anything, it’s probably “less wrong” to make up innocuous filler quotes (the Dylan one is, for sure), then to stick paragraphs of someone else’s writing into a book. But the cause is the same: laziness. (The plagarism I’m talking about is not the sort done by Wegman; its sort done by scholars who use factory production techniques to write popular press books — teams of research assistants who write memos, which the “author” then knits together & passes off as learne
Introduction: Delia Baldassarri and Amir Goldberg write : Americans’ political beliefs present a long observed paradox. Whereas the mainstream political discourse is structured on a clearly defined polarity between conservative and liberal views, in practice, most people exhibit ideologically incoherent belief patterns. This paper challenges the notion that political beliefs are necessarily defined by a singular ideological continuum. It applies a new, network-based method for detecting heterogeneity in collective patterns of opinion, relational class analysis (RCA), to Americans’ political attitudes as captured by the American National Election Studies. By refraining from making a-priori assumptions about how beliefs are interconnected, RCA looks for opinion structures, belief networks, that are not necessarily congruent with received wisdom. It finds that in the twenty years between 1984 and 2004 Americans’ political attitudes were consistently structured by two alternative belief systems: one
6 0.0 2 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-23-Modeling heterogenous treatment effects
7 0.0 3 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Bayes in the news…in a somewhat frustrating way
8 0.0 4 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Prolefeed
9 0.0 5 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Ethical and data-integrity problems in a study of mortality in Iraq
10 0.0 6 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Jelte Wicherts lays down the stats on IQ
12 0.0 8 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-Advice to help the rich get richer
14 0.0 10 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Alternatives to regression for social science predictions
15 0.0 11 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Auto-Gladwell, or Can fractals be used to predict human history?
16 0.0 12 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-More on problems with surveys estimating deaths in war zones
17 0.0 13 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-Things I learned from the Mickey Kaus for Senate campaign
18 0.0 14 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-01-Imputing count data
19 0.0 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
20 0.0 16 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 2077 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-25-“We agree that everyone deserves a second chance. But we do prefer when those given a second chance acknowledge that they did something wrong.”
Introduction: Yup.
2 0.40625164 1825 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-25-It’s binless! A program for computing normalizing functions
Introduction: Zhiqiang Tan writes: I have created an R package to implement the full likelihood method in Kong et al. (2003). The method can be seen as a binless extension of so-called Weighted Histogram Analysis Method (UWHAM) widely used in physics and chemistry. The method has also been introduced to the physics literature and called the Multivariate Bennet Acceptance Ratio (MBAR) method. But a key point of my implementation is to compute the free energy estimates by minimizing a convex function, instead of solving nonlinear equations by the self-consistency or the Newton-Raphson algorithm.
3 0.37554908 2314 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-01-Heller, Heller, and Gorfine on univariate and multivariate information measures
Introduction: Malka Gorfine writes: We noticed that the important topic of association measures and tests came up again in your blog, and we have few comments in this regard. It is useful to distinguish between the univariate and multivariate methods. A consistent multivariate method can recognise dependence between two vectors of random variables, while a univariate method can only loop over pairs of components and check for dependency between them. There are very few consistent multivariate methods. To the best of our knowledge there are three practical methods: 1) HSIC by Gretton et al. (http://www.gatsby.ucl.ac.uk/~gretton/papers/GreBouSmoSch05.pdf) 2) dcov by Szekely et al. (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1267453933) 3) A method we introduced in Heller et al (Biometrika, 2013, 503—510, http://biomet.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/12/04/biomet.ass070.full.pdf+html, and an R package, HHG, is available as well http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/HHG/index.html). A
4 0.3423759 738 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-30-Works well versus well understood
Introduction: John Cook discusses the John Tukey quote, “The test of a good procedure is how well it works, not how well it is understood.” Cook writes: At some level, it’s hard to argue against this. Statistical procedures operate on empirical data, so it makes sense that the procedures themselves be evaluated empirically. But I [Cook] question whether we really know that a statistical procedure works well if it isn’t well understood. Specifically, I’m skeptical of complex statistical methods whose only credentials are a handful of simulations. “We don’t have any theoretical results, buy hey, it works well in practice. Just look at the simulations.” Every method works well on the scenarios its author publishes, almost by definition. If the method didn’t handle a scenario well, the author would publish a different scenario. I agree with Cook but would give a slightly different emphasis. I’d say that a lot of methods can work when they are done well. See the second meta-principle liste
5 0.3247968 2247 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-14-The maximal information coefficient
Introduction: Justin Kinney writes: I wanted to let you know that the critique Mickey Atwal and I wrote regarding equitability and the maximal information coefficient has just been published . We discussed this paper last year, under the heading, Too many MC’s not enough MIC’s, or What principles should govern attempts to summarize bivariate associations in large multivariate datasets? Kinney and Atwal’s paper is interesting, with my only criticism being that in some places they seem to aim for what might not be possible. For example, they write that “mutual information is already widely believed to quantify dependencies without bias for relationships of one type or another,” which seems a bit vague to me. And later they write, “How to compute such an estimate that does not bias the resulting mutual information value remains an open problem,” which seems to me to miss the point in that unbiased statistical estimates are not generally possible and indeed are often not desirable. Their
6 0.31633288 2324 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-07-Once more on nonparametric measures of mutual information
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8 0.30319282 1394 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-27-99!
10 0.30015147 696 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-04-Whassup with glm()?
11 0.29848146 1389 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-23-Larry Wasserman’s statistics blog
12 0.29698437 2344 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-23-The gremlins did it? Iffy statistics drive strong policy recommendations
13 0.29659197 1232 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-27-Banned in NYC school tests
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15 0.28825152 1230 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-26-Further thoughts on nonparametric correlation measures
16 0.28800139 1398 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-28-Every time you take a sample, you’ll have to pay this guy a quarter
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19 0.27898607 590 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-25-Good introductory book for statistical computation?
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Introduction: Yup.
2 0.50314838 1558 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-02-Not so fast on levees and seawalls for NY harbor?
Introduction: I was talking with June Williamson and mentioned offhand that I’d seen something in the paper saying that if only we’d invested a few billion dollars in levees we would’ve saved zillions in economic damage from the flood. (A quick search also revealed this eerily prescient article from last month and, more recently, this online discussion.) June said, No, no, no: levees are not the way to go: Here and here are the articles on “soft infrastructure” for the New York-New Jersey Harbor I was mentioning, summarizing work that is more extensively published in two books, “Rising Currents” and “On the Water: Palisade Bay”: The hazards posed by climate change, sea level rise, and severe storm surges make this the time to transform our coastal cities through adaptive design. The conventional response to flooding, in recent history, has been hard engineering — fortifying the coastal infrastructure with seawalls and bulkheads to protect real estate at the expense of natural t
3 0.38903806 16 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling
Introduction: This is my last entry derived from Anthony Burgess’s book reviews , and it’ll be short. His review of Angus Wilson’s “The Strange Ride of Rudyard Kipling: His Life and Works” is a wonderfully balanced little thing. Nothing incredibly deep–like most items in the collection, the review is only two pages long–but I give it credit for being a rare piece of Kipling criticism I’ve seen that (a) seriously engages with the politics, without (b) congratulating itself on bravely going against the fashions of the politically incorrect chattering classes by celebrating Kipling’s magnificent achievement blah blah blah. Instead, Burgess shows respect for Kipling’s work and puts it in historical, biographical, and literary context. Burgess concludes that Wilson’s book “reminds us, in John Gross’s words, that Kipling ‘remains a haunting, unsettling presence, with whom we still have to come to terms.’ Still.” Well put, and generous of Burgess to end his review with another’s quote. Other cri
4 0.35812414 1028 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-26-Tenure lets you handle students who cheat
Introduction: The other day, a friend of mine who is an untenured professor (not in statistics or political science) was telling me about a class where many of the students seemed to be resubmitting papers that they had already written for previous classes. (The supposition was based on internal evidence of the topics of the submitted papers.) It would be possible to check this and then kick the cheating students out of the program—but why do it? It would be a lot of work, also some of the students who are caught might complain, then word would get around that my friend is a troublemaker. And nobody likes a troublemaker. Once my friend has tenure it would be possible to do the right thing. But . . . here’s the hitch: most college instructors do not have tenure, and one result, I suspect, is a decline in ethical standards. This is something I hadn’t thought of in our earlier discussion of job security for teachers: tenure gives you the freedom to kick out cheating students.
5 0.34813574 1433 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-28-LOL without the CATS
Introduction: Mayo points me to this discussion [link fixed] on parsimony by philosopher Elliott Sober. I don’t really understand what he’s talking about but I am posting the link here because it might interest some of you. P.S. More discussion on this from Mayo here .
6 0.34475997 9 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-But it all goes to pay for gas, car insurance, and tolls on the turnpike
7 0.34017187 696 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-04-Whassup with glm()?
8 0.32196945 1166 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-13-Recently in the sister blog
9 0.31198573 2349 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-26-WAIC and cross-validation in Stan!
11 0.30398437 1370 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Duncan Watts and the Titanic
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13 0.28605947 714 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-16-NYT Labs releases Openpaths, a utility for saving your iphone data
14 0.25295404 21 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-07-Environmentally induced cancer “grossly underestimated”? Doubtful.
15 0.23995429 729 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-24-Deviance as a difference
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17 0.21246803 1714 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-09-Partial least squares path analysis
18 0.16314338 776 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-22-Deviance, DIC, AIC, cross-validation, etc
19 0.15649301 561 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-06-Poverty, educational performance – and can be done about it
20 0.15497269 2134 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-14-Oswald evidence