andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-1005 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?
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same-blog 1 1.0 1005 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-11-Robert H. Frank and P. J. O’Rourke present . . .
Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?
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Introduction: Alan and Felix .
3 0.16080065 568 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-11-Calibration in chess
Introduction: Has anybody done this study yet? I’m curious about the results. Perhaps there’s some chess-playing cognitive psychologist who’d like to collaborate on this?
Introduction: The official announcement: The Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award for 2010 is presented to Felix Salmon for his body of work, which exemplifies the highest standards of scientific reporting. His insightful use of statistics as a tool to understanding the world of business and economics, areas that are critical in today’s economy, sets a new standard in statistical investigative reporting. Here are some examples: Tiger Woods Nigerian spammers How the government fudges job statistics This one is important to me. The idea is that “statistical reporting” is not just traditional science reporting (journalist talks with scientists and tries to understand the consensus) or science popularization or silly feature stories about the lottery. Salmon is doing investigative reporting using statistical thinking. Also, from a political angle, Salmon’s smart and quantitatively sophisticated work (as well as that of others such as Nate Silver) is an important counterweigh
5 0.1140755 1105 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-08-Econ debate about prices at a fancy restaurant
Introduction: Felix Salmon writes : Economists Justin Wolfers and Betsey Stevenson have a problem with Grant Achatz’s pricing strategy at Next, where tickets are sold at a fixed price and are then free to be resold at an enormous markup on the secondary market . . . “It’s democratic in theory, but not in practice,” said Wolfers . . . If a person can sell a ticket for $3,000, the true cost of going to the restaurant — what an economist would call the opportunity cost — is $3000, because that’s how much money the person is giving up for the meal. Bloomberg’s Mark Whitehouse concludes that Next should “consider selling tickets to the highest bidder and giving the extra money to charity” . . . What strikes me is how weird this discussion is. Why should this restaurant owner have some sort of moral obligation to maximize his income and then donate to charity? For one thing, if he really did make more money off the deal he might just keep it. But more to the point, this sort of maximiz
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Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?
2 0.70559782 734 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-28-Funniest comment ever
Introduction: Here (scroll down to the bottom; for some reason the link doesn’t go directly to the comment itself). I’ve never actually seen a Kaypro but I remember the ads. (Background here .)
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Introduction: I don’t know for sure, but I’ve long assumed that we get most of our hits from the link on the Marginal Revolution page. The bad news is that in their new design , they seem to have removed the blogroll!
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Introduction: Jeremy Miles writes: Are you familiar with Miller and Chapman’s (2001) article : Misunderstanding Analysis of Covariance saying that ANCOVA (and therefore, I suppose regression) should not be used when groups differ on a covariate. It has caused a moderate splash in psychology circles. I wondered if you had any thoughts on it. I had not heard of the article so I followed the link . . . ugh! Already on the very first column of the very first page they confuse nonadditivity with nonlinearity. I could probably continue with, “and it gets worse,” but since nobody’s paying me to read this one, I’ll stop reading right there on the first page! I prefer when people point me to good papers to read. . . .
5 0.59262347 806 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-17-6 links
Introduction: The Browser asked me to recommend 6 articles for their readers. Here’s what I came up with. I really wanted to link to this one but it wouldn’t mean much to people who don’t know New York. I also recommended this (if you’ll forgive my reference to bowling), but I think it was too much of a primary source for their taste.
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same-blog 1 0.91178584 1005 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-11-Robert H. Frank and P. J. O’Rourke present . . .
Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?
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Introduction: I’ve always thought it looked strange to see people referred to in print as Black or White rather than black or white. For example consider this sentence: “A black guy was walking down the street and he saw a bunch of white guys standing around.” That looks fine, whereas “A Black guy was walking down the street and he saw a bunch of White guys standing around”—that looks weird to me, as if the encounter was taking place in an Ethnic Studies seminar. But maybe I’m wrong on this. Jay Livingston argues that black and white are colors whereas Black and White are races (or, as I would prefer to say, ethnic categories) and illustrates with this picture of a white person and a White person: In conversation, I sometimes talk about pink people, brown people, and tan people, but that won’t work in a research paper. P.S. I suspect Carp will argue that I’m being naive: meanings of words change across contexts and over time. To which I reply: Sure, but I still have to choose h
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Introduction: Jeff writes: How far off is bglmer and can it handle ordered logit or multinom logit? My reply: bglmer is very close. No ordered logit but I was just talking about it with Sophia today. My guess is that the easiest way to fit a hierarchical ordered logit or multinom logit will be to use stan. For right now I’d recommend using glmer/bglmer to fit the ordered logits in order (e.g., 1 vs. 2,3,4, then 2 vs. 3,4, then 3 vs. 4). Or maybe there’s already a hierarchical multinomial logit in mcmcpack or somewhere?
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Introduction: Someone told me he ran into someone who said his goal was to be Tyler Cowen. OK, fine, it’s a worthy goal, but I don’t think it’s so easy .
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Introduction: When predicting 0/1 data we can use logit (or probit or robit or some other robust model such as invlogit (0.01 + 0.98*X*beta)). Logit is simple enough and we can use bayesglm to regularize and avoid the problem of separation. What if there are more than 2 categories? If they’re ordered (1, 2, 3, etc), we can do ordered logit (and use bayespolr() to avoid separation). If the categories are unordered (vanilla, chocolate, strawberry), there are unordered multinomial logit and probit models out there. But it’s not so easy to fit these multinomial model in a multilevel setting (with coefficients that vary by group), especially if the computation is embedded in an iterative routine such as mi where you have real time constraints at each step. So this got me wondering whether we could kluge it with logits. Here’s the basic idea (in the ordered and unordered forms): - If you have a variable that goes 1, 2, 3, etc., set up a series of logits: 1 vs. 2,3,…; 2 vs. 3,…; and so forth
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