andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1240 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: A few months ago I reported on someone who wanted to insert text links into the blog. I asked her how much they would pay and got no answer. Yesterday, though, I received this reply: Hello Andrew, I am sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I’d like to make a proposal for your site. Please refer below. We would like to place a simple text link ad on page http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/ to link to *** with the key phrase ***. We will incorporate the key phrase into a sentence so it would read well. Rest assured it won’t sound obnoxious or advertorial. We will then process the final text link code as soon as you agree to our proposal. We can offer you $200 for this with the assumption that you will keep the link “live” on that page for 12 months or longer if you prefer. Please get back to us with a quick reply on your thoughts on this and include your Paypal ID for payment process. Hoping for a positive response from you. I wrote back: Hi,
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 A few months ago I reported on someone who wanted to insert text links into the blog. [sent-1, score-0.849]
2 I asked her how much they would pay and got no answer. [sent-2, score-0.268]
3 Yesterday, though, I received this reply: Hello Andrew, I am sorry for the delay in getting back to you. [sent-3, score-0.468]
4 We would like to place a simple text link ad on page http://andrewgelman. [sent-6, score-0.968]
5 com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/ to link to *** with the key phrase ***. [sent-7, score-0.582]
6 We will incorporate the key phrase into a sentence so it would read well. [sent-8, score-0.671]
7 We will then process the final text link code as soon as you agree to our proposal. [sent-10, score-0.813]
8 We can offer you $200 for this with the assumption that you will keep the link “live” on that page for 12 months or longer if you prefer. [sent-11, score-0.881]
9 Please get back to us with a quick reply on your thoughts on this and include your Paypal ID for payment process. [sent-12, score-0.486]
10 It’s not worth it to me for $200 but thanks for asking. [sent-15, score-0.342]
11 It really isn’t worth it to me for $200 or $2,000 or $20,000 to uglify and destroy the blog’s non-commercial nature. [sent-16, score-0.287]
12 On the other hand, what if I could have 500 adwords on the page at $200 each. [sent-17, score-0.209]
13 For $100K, I’d probably do it: that would pay for a postdoc! [sent-18, score-0.268]
14 I was just curious what number they were going to come up with. [sent-20, score-0.093]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 1240 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-02-Blogads update
Introduction: A few months ago I reported on someone who wanted to insert text links into the blog. I asked her how much they would pay and got no answer. Yesterday, though, I received this reply: Hello Andrew, I am sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I’d like to make a proposal for your site. Please refer below. We would like to place a simple text link ad on page http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/ to link to *** with the key phrase ***. We will incorporate the key phrase into a sentence so it would read well. Rest assured it won’t sound obnoxious or advertorial. We will then process the final text link code as soon as you agree to our proposal. We can offer you $200 for this with the assumption that you will keep the link “live” on that page for 12 months or longer if you prefer. Please get back to us with a quick reply on your thoughts on this and include your Paypal ID for payment process. Hoping for a positive response from you. I wrote back: Hi,
2 0.35120818 1080 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-24-Latest in blog advertising
Introduction: I received the following message from “Patricia Lopez” of “Premium Link Ads”: Hello, I am interested in placing a text link on your page: http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/. The link would point to a page on a website that is relevant to your page and may be useful to your site visitors. We would be happy to compensate you for your time if it is something we are able to work out. The best way to reach me is through a direct response to this email. This will help me get back to you about the right link request. Please let me know if you are interested, and if not thanks for your time. Thanks. Usually I just ignore these, but after our recent discussion I decided to reply. I wrote: How much do you pay? But no answer. I wonder what’s going on? I mean, why bother sending the email in the first place if you’re not going to follow up?
3 0.14662983 1012 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-16-Blog bribes!
Introduction: Nick Rizzo points to this amusing Gawker item (sorry!) from Hamilton Nolan about advertisers trying to sneak links into blog content. The Gawker blogger got the following email: Greetings, My name is Bryan Clark, and I’m a big fan of your writing. I contacted you because I think I have a mutually beneficial agreement that will allow you to make additional money for articles you are already writing online. Let me give you an idea of how we can help each other. We’re looking for writers that can help increase the profile of our clients by linking to them within the context of their articles. The clients are huge, and we generally have one that can fit naturally in the context of most article niches. In return, we pay generously for a single link for our clients. If you are interested, I’d love to talk about it more. Regards, Bryan Clark Hey, that looks kinda familiar! Here’s an email I received a couple weeks ago [actually, last month, as we're currently on a 1-month l
4 0.14614289 1871 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-Annals of spam
Introduction: I received the following email, subject line “Want to Buy Text Link from andrewgelman.com”: Dear, I am Mary Taylor. I have started a link building campaign for my growing websites. For this, I need your cooperation. The campaign is quite diverse and large scale and if you take some time to understand it – it will benefit us. First I want to clarify that I do not want “blogroll” ”footer” or any other type of “site wide links”. Secondly I want links from inner pages of site – with good page rank of course. Third links should be within text so that Google may not mark them as spam – not for you and not for me. Hence this link building will cause almost no harm to your site or me. Because content links are fine with Google. Now I should come to the requirements. I will accept links from Page Rank 3 to as high as you have got. Also kindly note that I can buy 1 to 50 links from one site – so you should understand the scale of the project. If you have multiple sites with co
Introduction: See page 179 here for Gowa’s review from 1986. And here’s my version (from 2008).
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same-blog 1 0.97664952 1240 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-02-Blogads update
Introduction: A few months ago I reported on someone who wanted to insert text links into the blog. I asked her how much they would pay and got no answer. Yesterday, though, I received this reply: Hello Andrew, I am sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I’d like to make a proposal for your site. Please refer below. We would like to place a simple text link ad on page http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/ to link to *** with the key phrase ***. We will incorporate the key phrase into a sentence so it would read well. Rest assured it won’t sound obnoxious or advertorial. We will then process the final text link code as soon as you agree to our proposal. We can offer you $200 for this with the assumption that you will keep the link “live” on that page for 12 months or longer if you prefer. Please get back to us with a quick reply on your thoughts on this and include your Paypal ID for payment process. Hoping for a positive response from you. I wrote back: Hi,
2 0.93610716 1080 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-24-Latest in blog advertising
Introduction: I received the following message from “Patricia Lopez” of “Premium Link Ads”: Hello, I am interested in placing a text link on your page: http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/. The link would point to a page on a website that is relevant to your page and may be useful to your site visitors. We would be happy to compensate you for your time if it is something we are able to work out. The best way to reach me is through a direct response to this email. This will help me get back to you about the right link request. Please let me know if you are interested, and if not thanks for your time. Thanks. Usually I just ignore these, but after our recent discussion I decided to reply. I wrote: How much do you pay? But no answer. I wonder what’s going on? I mean, why bother sending the email in the first place if you’re not going to follow up?
3 0.89447105 1871 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-Annals of spam
Introduction: I received the following email, subject line “Want to Buy Text Link from andrewgelman.com”: Dear, I am Mary Taylor. I have started a link building campaign for my growing websites. For this, I need your cooperation. The campaign is quite diverse and large scale and if you take some time to understand it – it will benefit us. First I want to clarify that I do not want “blogroll” ”footer” or any other type of “site wide links”. Secondly I want links from inner pages of site – with good page rank of course. Third links should be within text so that Google may not mark them as spam – not for you and not for me. Hence this link building will cause almost no harm to your site or me. Because content links are fine with Google. Now I should come to the requirements. I will accept links from Page Rank 3 to as high as you have got. Also kindly note that I can buy 1 to 50 links from one site – so you should understand the scale of the project. If you have multiple sites with co
4 0.77078468 859 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-18-Misunderstanding analysis of covariance
Introduction: Jeremy Miles writes: Are you familiar with Miller and Chapman’s (2001) article : Misunderstanding Analysis of Covariance saying that ANCOVA (and therefore, I suppose regression) should not be used when groups differ on a covariate. It has caused a moderate splash in psychology circles. I wondered if you had any thoughts on it. I had not heard of the article so I followed the link . . . ugh! Already on the very first column of the very first page they confuse nonadditivity with nonlinearity. I could probably continue with, “and it gets worse,” but since nobody’s paying me to read this one, I’ll stop reading right there on the first page! I prefer when people point me to good papers to read. . . .
5 0.76949477 1012 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-16-Blog bribes!
Introduction: Nick Rizzo points to this amusing Gawker item (sorry!) from Hamilton Nolan about advertisers trying to sneak links into blog content. The Gawker blogger got the following email: Greetings, My name is Bryan Clark, and I’m a big fan of your writing. I contacted you because I think I have a mutually beneficial agreement that will allow you to make additional money for articles you are already writing online. Let me give you an idea of how we can help each other. We’re looking for writers that can help increase the profile of our clients by linking to them within the context of their articles. The clients are huge, and we generally have one that can fit naturally in the context of most article niches. In return, we pay generously for a single link for our clients. If you are interested, I’d love to talk about it more. Regards, Bryan Clark Hey, that looks kinda familiar! Here’s an email I received a couple weeks ago [actually, last month, as we're currently on a 1-month l
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same-blog 1 0.97931075 1240 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-02-Blogads update
Introduction: A few months ago I reported on someone who wanted to insert text links into the blog. I asked her how much they would pay and got no answer. Yesterday, though, I received this reply: Hello Andrew, I am sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I’d like to make a proposal for your site. Please refer below. We would like to place a simple text link ad on page http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/ to link to *** with the key phrase ***. We will incorporate the key phrase into a sentence so it would read well. Rest assured it won’t sound obnoxious or advertorial. We will then process the final text link code as soon as you agree to our proposal. We can offer you $200 for this with the assumption that you will keep the link “live” on that page for 12 months or longer if you prefer. Please get back to us with a quick reply on your thoughts on this and include your Paypal ID for payment process. Hoping for a positive response from you. I wrote back: Hi,
2 0.97594798 1455 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-12-Probabilistic screening to get an approximate self-weighted sample
Introduction: Sharad had a survey sampling question: We’re trying to use mechanical turk to conduct some surveys, and have quickly discovered that turkers tend to be quite young. We’d really like a representative sample of the U.S., or at the least be able to recruit a diverse enough sample from turk that we can post-stratify to adjust the estimates. The approach we ended up taking is to pay turkers a small amount to answer a couple of screening questions (age & sex), and then probabilistically recruit individuals to complete the full survey (for more money) based on the estimated turk population parameters and our desired target distribution. We use rejection sampling, so the end result is that individuals who are invited to take the full survey look as if they came from a representative sample, at least in terms of age and sex. I’m wondering whether this sort of technique—a two step design in which participants are first screened and then probabilistically selected to mimic a target distributio
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Introduction: I recently read a bizarre article by Janet Malcolm on a murder trial in NYC. What threw me about the article was that the story was utterly commonplace (by the standards of today’s headlines): divorced mom kills ex-husband in a custody dispute over their four-year-old daughter. The only interesting features were (a) the wife was a doctor and the husband were a dentist, the sort of people you’d expect to sue rather than slay, and (b) the wife hired a hitman from within the insular immigrant community that she (and her husband) belonged to. But, really, neither of these was much of a twist. To add to the non-storyness of it all, there were no other suspects, the evidence against the wife and the hitman was overwhelming, and even the high-paid defense lawyers didn’t seem to be making much of an effort to convince anyone of their client’s innocents. (One of the closing arguments was that one aspect of the wife’s story was so ridiculous that it had to be true. In the lawyer’s wo
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Introduction: Interesting discussion from David Gorski (which I found via this link from Joseph Delaney). I don’t have anything really to add to this discussion except to note the value of this sort of anecdote in a statistics discussion. It’s only n=1 and adds almost nothing to the literature on the effectiveness of various treatments, but a story like this can help focus one’s thoughts on the decision problems.
Introduction: Pointing to this news article by Megan McArdle discussing a recent study of Medicaid recipients, Jonathan Falk writes: Forget the interpretation for a moment, and the political spin, but haven’t we reached an interesting point when a journalist says things like: When you do an RCT with more than 12,000 people in it, and your defense of your hypothesis is that maybe the study just didn’t have enough power, what you’re actually saying is “the beneficial effects are probably pretty small”. and A good Bayesian—and aren’t most of us are supposed to be good Bayesians these days?—should be updating in light of this new information. Given this result, what is the likelihood that Obamacare will have a positive impact on the average health of Americans? Every one of us, for or against, should be revising that probability downwards. I’m not saying that you have to revise it to zero; I certainly haven’t. But however high it was yesterday, it should be somewhat lower today. This
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