andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-612 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

612 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-14-Uh-oh


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Introduction: I don’t know for sure, but I’ve long assumed that we get most of our hits from the link on the Marginal Revolution page. The bad news is that in their new design , they seem to have removed the blogroll!


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

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1 I don’t know for sure, but I’ve long assumed that we get most of our hits from the link on the Marginal Revolution page. [sent-1, score-1.153]

2 The bad news is that in their new design , they seem to have removed the blogroll! [sent-2, score-1.159]


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same-blog 1 1.0 612 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-14-Uh-oh

Introduction: I don’t know for sure, but I’ve long assumed that we get most of our hits from the link on the Marginal Revolution page. The bad news is that in their new design , they seem to have removed the blogroll!

2 0.32863253 297 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-27-An interesting education and statistics blog

Introduction: Just in case you didn’t notice it on the blogroll.

3 0.18100469 911 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-15-More data tools worth using from Google

Introduction: Speaking of open data and google tools, see this post from Revolution R: How to use a Google Spreadsheet as data in R .

4 0.15403803 1193 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-03-“Do you guys pay your bills?”

Introduction: I’ve had Love the Liberry on the blogroll forever. I hadn’t checked the site for awhile and was impressed to see that they’re still at it. Great stuff—don’t ever quit! P.S. It seems that there are other librarian blogs. Pretty scary, actually! One’s enough for me.

5 0.1468364 1983 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-15-More on AIC, WAIC, etc

Introduction: Following up on our discussion from the other day, Angelika van der Linde sends along this paper from 2012 (link to journal here ). And Aki pulls out this great quote from Geisser and Eddy (1979): This discussion makes clear that in the nested case this method, as Akaike’s, is not consistent; i.e., even if $M_k$ is true, it will be rejected with probability $\alpha$ as $N\to\infty$. This point is also made by Schwarz (1978). However, from the point of view of prediction, this is of no great consequence. For large numbers of observations, a prediction based on the falsely assumed $M_k$, will not differ appreciably from one based on the true $M_k$. For example, if we assert that two normal populations have different means when in fact they have the same mean, then the use of the group mean as opposed to the grand mean for predicting a future observation results in predictors which are asymptotically equivalent and whose predictive variances are $\sigma^2[1 + (1/2n)]$ and $\si

6 0.11544949 1518 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-02-Fighting a losing battle

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8 0.090295069 2066 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-17-G+ hangout for test run of BDA course

9 0.08639542 779 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-25-Avoiding boundary estimates using a prior distribution as regularization

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14 0.079039395 1177 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-20-Joshua Clover update

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Introduction: I don’t know for sure, but I’ve long assumed that we get most of our hits from the link on the Marginal Revolution page. The bad news is that in their new design , they seem to have removed the blogroll!

2 0.67661613 734 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-28-Funniest comment ever

Introduction: Here (scroll down to the bottom; for some reason the link doesn’t go directly to the comment itself). I’ve never actually seen a Kaypro but I remember the ads. (Background here .)

3 0.65737891 1077 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-21-In which I compare “POLITICO’s chief political columnist” unfavorably to a cranky old dead guy and one of the funniest writers who’s ever lived

Introduction: Neil Malhotra writes: I just wanted to alert to this completely misinformed Politico article by Roger Simon, equating sampling theory with “magic.” Normally, I wouldn’t send you this, but I sent him a helpful email and he was a complete jerk about it. Wow—this is really bad. It’s so bad I refuse to link to it. I don’t know who this dude is, but it’s pitiful. Andy Rooney could do better. And I don’t mean Andy Rooney in his prime, I mean Andy Rooney right now. The piece appears to be an attempt at jocularity, but it’s about 10 million times worse than whatever the worst thing is that Dave Barry has ever written. My question to Neil Malhotra is . . . what made you click on this in the first place? P.S. John Sides piles on with some Gallup quotes.

4 0.65263444 1005 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-11-Robert H. Frank and P. J. O’Rourke present . . .

Introduction: I suppose if I can write an article with George Romero, there’s no reason that a noted economist and a legendary humorist can’t collaborate ( link from Felix Salmon). I wonder how they got together in the first place?

5 0.64231837 806 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-17-6 links

Introduction: The Browser asked me to recommend 6 articles for their readers. Here’s what I came up with. I really wanted to link to this one but it wouldn’t mean much to people who don’t know New York. I also recommended this (if you’ll forgive my reference to bowling), but I think it was too much of a primary source for their taste.

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10 0.61326438 1012 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-16-Blog bribes!

11 0.61026943 380 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-29-“Bluntly put . . .”

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Introduction: I don’t know for sure, but I’ve long assumed that we get most of our hits from the link on the Marginal Revolution page. The bad news is that in their new design , they seem to have removed the blogroll!

2 0.84341824 743 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-03-An argument that can’t possibly make sense

Introduction: Tyler Cowen writes : Texas has begun to enforce [a law regarding parallel parking] only recently . . . Up until now, of course, there has been strong net mobility into the state of Texas, so was the previous lack of enforcement so bad? I care not at all about the direction in which people park their cars and I have no opinion on this law, but I have to raise an alarm at Cowen’s argument here. Let me strip it down to its basic form: 1. Until recently, state X had policy A. 2. Up until now, there has been strong net mobility into state X 3. Therefore, the presumption is that policy A is ok. In this particular case, I think we can safely assume that parallel parking regulations have had close to zero impact on the population flows into and out of Texas. More generally, I think logicians could poke some holes into the argument that 1 and 2 above imply 3. For one thing, you could apply this argument to any policy in any state that’s had positive net migration. Hai

3 0.84038073 2229 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-28-God-leaf-tree

Introduction: Govind Manian writes: I wanted to pass along a fragment from Lichtenberg’s Waste Books — which I am finding to be great stone soup — that reminded me of God is in Every Leaf : To the wise man nothing is great and nothing small…I believe he could write treatises on keyholes that sounded as weighty as a jus naturae and would be just as instructive. As the few adepts in such things well know, universal morality is to be found in little everyday penny-events just as much as in great ones. There is so much goodness and ingenuity in a raindrop that an apothecary wouldn’t let it go for less than half-a-crown… (Notebook B, 33)

4 0.83804107 38 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-Breastfeeding, infant hyperbilirubinemia, statistical graphics, and modern medicine

Introduction: Dan Lakeland asks : When are statistical graphics potentially life threatening? When they’re poorly designed, and used to make decisions on potentially life threatening topics, like medical decision making, engineering design, and the like. The American Academy of Pediatrics has dropped the ball on communicating to physicians about infant jaundice. Another message in this post is that bad decisions can compound each other. It’s an interesting story (follow the link above for the details), would be great for a class in decision analysis or statistical communication. I have no idea how to get from A to B here, in the sense of persuading hospitals to do this sort of thing better. I’d guess the first step is to carefully lay out costs and benefits. When doctors and nurses make extra precautions for safety, it could be useful to lay out the ultimate goals and estimate the potential costs and benefits of different approaches.

5 0.83741683 241 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-Ethics and statistics in development research

Introduction: From Bannerjee and Duflo, “The Experimental Approach to Development Economics,” Annual Review of Economics (2009): One issue with the explicit acknowledgment of randomization as a fair way to allocate the program is that implementers may find that the easiest way to present it to the community is to say that an expansion of the program is planned for the control areas in the future (especially when such is indeed the case, as in phased-in design). I can’t quite figure out whether Bannerjee and Duflo are saying that they would lie and tell people that an expansion is planned when it isn’t, or whether they’re deploring that other people do it. I’m not bothered by a lot of the deception in experimental research–for example, I think the Milgram obedience experiment was just fine–but somehow the above deception bothers me. It just seems wrong to tell people that an expansion is planned if it’s not. P.S. Overall the article is pretty good. My only real problem with it is that

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