andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-958 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: See, for example, this report by Deborah Carr on changing attitudes about marital infidelity: Two great things about the General Social Survey are: (1) the data are freely available online , and (2) the same questions have been asked since 1972 so you get a nice long series.
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1 See, for example, this report by Deborah Carr on changing attitudes about marital infidelity: Two great things about the General Social Survey are: (1) the data are freely available online , and (2) the same questions have been asked since 1972 so you get a nice long series. [sent-1, score-2.827]
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same-blog 1 1.0 958 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-14-The General Social Survey is a great resource
Introduction: See, for example, this report by Deborah Carr on changing attitudes about marital infidelity: Two great things about the General Social Survey are: (1) the data are freely available online , and (2) the same questions have been asked since 1972 so you get a nice long series.
Introduction: Etienne LeBel writes: You’ve probably already seen it, but I thought you could have a lot of fun with this one!! The article , with the admirably clear title given above, is by James McNulty, Michael Olson, Andrea Meltzer, Matthew Shaffer, and begins as follows: For decades, social psychological theories have posited that the automatic processes captured by implicit measures have implications for social outcomes. Yet few studies have demonstrated any long-term implications of automatic processes, and some scholars have begun to question the relevance and even the validity of these theories. At baseline of our longitudinal study, 135 newlywed couples (270 individuals) completed an explicit measure of their conscious attitudes toward their relationship and an implicit measure of their automatic attitudes toward their partner. They then reported their marital satisfaction every 6 months for the next 4 years. We found no correlation between spouses’ automatic and conscious attitu
3 0.15533131 1128 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-19-Sharon Begley: Worse than Stephen Jay Gould?
Introduction: Commenter Tggp links to a criticism of science journalist Sharon Begley by science journalist Matthew Hutson. I learned of this dispute after reporting that Begley had received the American Statistical Association’s Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award, a completely undeserved honor, if Hutson is to believed. The two journalists have somewhat similar profiles: Begley was science editor at Newsweek (she’s now at Reuters) and author of “Train Your Mind, Change Your Brain: How a New Science Reveals Our Extraordinary Potential to Transform Ourselves,” and Hutson was news editor at Psychology Today and wrote the similarly self-helpy-titled, “The 7 Laws of Magical Thinking: How Irrational Beliefs Keep Us Happy, Healthy, and Sane.” Hutson writes : Psychological Science recently published a fascinating new study on jealousy. I was interested to read Newsweek’s 1300-word article covering the research by their science editor, Sharon Begley. But part-way through the article, I
4 0.12730449 112 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-27-Sampling rate of human-scaled time series
Introduction: Bill Harris writes with two interesting questions involving time series analysis: I used to work in an organization that designed and made signal processing equipment. Antialiasing and windowing of time series was a big deal in performing analysis accurately. Now I’m in a place where I have to make inferences about human-scaled time series. It has dawned on me that the two are related. I’m not sure we often have data sampled at a rate at least twice the highest frequency present (not just the highest frequency of interest). The only articles I’ve seen about aliasing as applied to social science series are from Hinich or from related works . Box and Jenkins hint at it in section 13.3 of Time Series Analysis, but the analysis seems to be mostly heuristic. Yet I can imagine all sorts of time series subject to similar problems, from analyses of stock prices based on closing prices (mentioned in the latter article) to other economic series measured on a monthly basis to en
5 0.1204818 761 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-A survey’s not a survey if they don’t tell you how they did it
Introduction: Since we’re on the topic of nonreplicable research . . . see here (link from here ) for a story of a survey that’s so bad that the people who did it won’t say how they did it. I know too many cases where people screwed up in a survey when they were actually trying to get the right answer, for me to trust any report of a survey that doesn’t say what they did. I’m reminded of this survey which may well have been based on a sample of size 6 (again, the people who did it refused to release any description of methodology).
6 0.11163197 932 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-30-Articles on the philosophy of Bayesian statistics by Cox, Mayo, Senn, and others!
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14 0.071437545 1309 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-09-The first version of my “inference from iterative simulation using parallel sequences” paper!
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same-blog 1 0.9579919 958 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-14-The General Social Survey is a great resource
Introduction: See, for example, this report by Deborah Carr on changing attitudes about marital infidelity: Two great things about the General Social Survey are: (1) the data are freely available online , and (2) the same questions have been asked since 1972 so you get a nice long series.
2 0.7773245 1754 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-08-Cool GSS training video! And cumulative file 1972-2012!
Introduction: Felipe Osorio made the above video to help people use the General Social Survey and R to answer research questions in social science. Go for it! Meanwhile, Tom Smith reports: The initial release of the General Social Survey (GSS), cumulative file for 1972-2012 is now on our website . Codebooks and copies of questionnaires will be posted shortly. Later additional files including the GSS reinterview panels and additional variables in the cumulative file will be added. P.S. R scripts are here .
3 0.75005281 385 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked
Introduction: Maria Wolters writes: The parenting club Bounty, which distributes their packs through midwives, hospitals, and large UK supermarket and pharmacy chains, commissioned a fun little survey for Halloween from the company OnePoll . Theme: Mothers as tricksters – tricking men into fathering their babies. You can find a full smackdown courtesy of UK-based sex educator and University College London psychologist Petra Boynton here . (One does wonder how a parenting club with such close links to the UK National Health Service thought a survey on this topic was at all appropriate, but that’s another rant.) So far, so awful, but what I [Wolters] thought might grab your attention was the excuse OnePoll offered for their work in their email to Petra. (Petra is very well known in the UK, and so was able to get a statement from the polling company.) Here it is in its full glory, taken from Petra’s post: As the agency which commissioned this research and distributed the resulting new
4 0.70356596 761 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-A survey’s not a survey if they don’t tell you how they did it
Introduction: Since we’re on the topic of nonreplicable research . . . see here (link from here ) for a story of a survey that’s so bad that the people who did it won’t say how they did it. I know too many cases where people screwed up in a survey when they were actually trying to get the right answer, for me to trust any report of a survey that doesn’t say what they did. I’m reminded of this survey which may well have been based on a sample of size 6 (again, the people who did it refused to release any description of methodology).
5 0.69649106 1371 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Question 28 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: This is it, the last question on the exam! 28. A telephone survey was conducted several years ago, asking people how often they were polled in the past year. I can’t recall the responses, but suppose that 40% of the respondents said they participated in zero surveys in the previous year, 30% said they participated in one survey, 15% said two surveys, 10% said three, and 5% said four. From this it is easy to estimate an average, but there is a worry that this survey will itself overrepresent survey participants and thus overestimate the rate at which the average person is surveyed. Come up with a procedure to use these data to get an improved estimate of the average number of surveys that a randomly-sampled American is polled in a year. Solution to question 27 From yesterday : 27. Which of the following problems were identified with the Burnham et al. survey of Iraq mortality? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The survey used cluster sampling, which is inappropriate for estim
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same-blog 1 0.91196984 958 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-14-The General Social Survey is a great resource
Introduction: See, for example, this report by Deborah Carr on changing attitudes about marital infidelity: Two great things about the General Social Survey are: (1) the data are freely available online , and (2) the same questions have been asked since 1972 so you get a nice long series.
2 0.91060269 622 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-21-A possible resolution of the albedo mystery!
Introduction: Remember that bizarre episode in Freakonomics 2, where Levitt and Dubner went to the Batcave-like lair of a genius billionaire who told them that “the problem with solar panels is that they’re black .” I’m not the only one who wondered at the time: of all the issues to bring up about solar power, why that one? Well, I think I’ve found the answer in this article by John Lanchester: In 2004, Nathan Myhrvold, who had, five years earlier, at the advanced age of forty, retired from his job as Microsoft’s chief technology officer, began to contribute to the culinary discussion board egullet.org . . . At the time he grew interested in sous vide, there was no book in English on the subject, and he resolved to write one. . . . broadened it further to include information about the basic physics of heating processes, then to include the physics and chemistry of traditional cooking techniques, and then to include the science and practical application of the highly inventive new techniq
3 0.90522957 877 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-29-Applying quantum probability to political science
Introduction: As we’ve discussed on occasion, conditional probability (“Boltzmann statistics,” in physics jargon) is false at the atomic level. (It’s false at the macroscopic level too, but with discrepancies too small to be detected directly most of the time.) Occasionally I’ve speculated on how quantum probability (that is, the laws of uncertainty that hold in the real world) might be applied to social science research. I’ve made no progress but remain intrigued by the idea. Chris Zorn told me he recently went to a meeting on applications of non-Kolmogorovian / quantum probability to social & human phenomena. Here’s his paper (with Charles Smith), “Some Quantum-Like Features of Mass Politics in Two-Party Systems,” which begins: We [Smith and Zorn] expand the substantive terrain of QI’s reach by illuminating a body of political theory that to date has been elaborated in strictly classical language and formalisms but has complex features that seem to merit generalizations of the prob
4 0.89860928 913 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-16-Groundhog day in August?
Introduction: A colleague writes: Due to my similar interest in plagiarism , I went to The Human Cultural and Social Landscape session. [The recipient of the American Statistical Association's Founders Award in 2002] gave the first talk in the session instead of Yasmin Said, which was modestly attended (20 or so people) and gave a sociology talk with no numbers — and no attribution to where these ideas (on Afghanistan culture) came from. Would it really have hurt to give the source of this? I’m on board with plain laziness for this one. I think he may have mentioned a number of his collaborators at the beginning, and all he talked about were cultural customs and backgrounds, no science to speak of. It’s kind of amazing to me that he actually showed up at JSM, but of course if he had any shame, he wouldn’t have repeatedly stolen copied without proper attribution in the first place. It’s not even like Doris Kearns Goodwin who reportedly produced a well-written book out of it!
5 0.89627802 924 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-24-“Income can’t be used to predict political opinion”
Introduction: What really irritates me about this column (by John Steele Gordon) is not how stupid it is (an article about “millionaires” that switches within the very same paragraph between “a nest egg of $1 million” and “a $1 million annual income” without acknowledging the difference between these concepts) or the ignorance it displays (no, it’s not true that “McCain carried the middle class” in 2008—unless by “middle class” you mean “middle class whites”). No, what really ticks me off is that, when the Red State Blue State book was coming out, we pitched a “5 myths” article for the Washington Post, and they turned us down! Perhaps the rule is: if it’s in the Opinions section of the paper, it can’t contain any facts? Or, to be more precise, any facts it contains must be counterbalanced by an equal number of inanities? Grrrrr . . . I haven’t been so annoyed since reading that New York Times article that argued that electoral politics is just like high school. Who needs political scie
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