andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1251 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Alex points me to this paper by Lirong Xia. With its model of independent identically distributed votes, the paper is a bit theoretical for my taste, but maybe it will interest some of you.
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same-blog 1 1.0 1251 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-07-Mathematical model of vote operations
Introduction: Alex points me to this paper by Lirong Xia. With its model of independent identically distributed votes, the paper is a bit theoretical for my taste, but maybe it will interest some of you.
2 0.16451675 904 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-13-My wikipedia edit
Introduction: The other day someone mentioned my complaint about the Wikipedia article on “Bayesian inference” (see footnote 1 of this article ) and he said I should fix the Wikipedia entry myself. And so I did . I didn’t have the energy to rewrite the whole article–in particular, all of its examples involve discrete parameters, whereas the Bayesian problems I work on generally have continuous parameters, and its “mathematical foundations” section focuses on “independent identically distributed observations x” rather than data y which can have different distributions. It’s just a wacky, unbalanced article. But I altered the first few paragraphs to get rid of the stuff about the posterior probability that a model is true. I much prefer the Scholarpedia article on Bayesian statistics by David Spiegelhalter and Kenneth Rice, but I couldn’t bring myself to simply delete the Wikipedia article and replace it with the Scholarpedia content. Just to be clear: I’m not at all trying to disparage
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Introduction: Govind Manian points me to this online textbook by Alex Reinhart. It’s hard for me to evaluate because I am so close to the material. But on first glance it looks pretty reasonable to me.
Introduction: Alex Tabarrok reports on an analysis from the Los Angeles Times of teacher performance (as measured by so-called value-added analysis, which is basically compares teachers based on their students’ average test scores at the end of the year, after controlling for pre-test scores. It’s well known that some teachers are much better than others, but, as Alex points out, what’s striking about the L.A. Times study is that they are publishing the estimates for individual teachers . For example, this: Nice graphics, too. To me, this illustrates one of the big advantages of research in a non-academic environment. If you’re writing an article for the L.A. Times, you can do what you want (within the limits of the law). If you’re doing the same research study at a university, there are a million restrictions. For example, from an official documen t, “The primary purpose of an Institutional Review Board (IRB) is to protect the rights and welfare of human subjects participati
5 0.10183153 1823 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-24-The Tweets-Votes Curve
Introduction: Fabio Rojas points me to this excellently-titled working paper by Joseph DiGrazia, Karissa McKelvey, Johan Bollen, and himself: Is social media a valid indicator of political behavior? We answer this ques- tion using a random sample of 537,231,508 tweets from August 1 to November 1, 2010 and data from 406 competitive U.S. congressional elections provided by the Federal Election Commission. Our results show that the percentage of Republican-candidate name mentions correlates with the Republican vote margin in the subsequent election. This finding persists even when controlling for incumbency, district partisanship, media coverage of the race, time, and demographic variables such as the district’s racial and gender composi- tion. With over 500 million active users in 2012, Twitter now represents a new frontier for the study of human behavior. This research provides a framework for incorporating this emerging medium into the computational social science toolkit. One charming thing
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same-blog 1 0.96363884 1251 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-07-Mathematical model of vote operations
Introduction: Alex points me to this paper by Lirong Xia. With its model of independent identically distributed votes, the paper is a bit theoretical for my taste, but maybe it will interest some of you.
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Introduction: Expectation propagation and approximate Bayesian computation. Here are X’s comments on a paper, “Expectation-Propagation for Likelihood-Free Inference,” by Simon Barthelme and Nicolas Chopin. The paper is not new but the topic is still hot. Also there’s this paper by Maurizio Filippone and Mark Girolami on computation for Gaussian process models. I wonder how this connects to GPstuff , which I think is what Aki did to fit the birthdays model: This stuff is where it’s at.
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Introduction: I received the following email the other day: Given your past criticisms of this issue in your posts, I do not think you will like my co-authored paper , “Microfoundations of the Business Cycle and Monetary Shocks” . . . Given this lead-in, of course I had to take a look. The paper is by James Holmes, John Holmes, and Patricia Hutton, it’s called “Microfoundations of the Business Cycle and Monetary Shocks,” and they say: Non-rational expectations can produce larger expected real income for some or all agents than rational expectations. . . . Hence, “rational expectations” are not rational, and “money illusion” can be optimal and satisfy the “Lucas Critique.” . . . Nominal wage rigidity or stickiness can be the rational response of firms or workers and need not be evidence of money illusion. I asked Holmes why he thought I would not like the paper, as I am not opposed to microfoundations when they are of interest. My opposition is to the attitude that microfoundations a
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Introduction: I’ve whined before in this space that some of my most important, innovative, and influential papers are really hard to get published. I’ll go through endless hassle with a journal or sometimes several journals until I find some place willing to publish. It’s just irritating. I was thinking about this recently because a colleague and I just finished a paper that I love love love. But I can’t figure out where to submit it. This is a paper for which I would prefer the so-called reverse-journal-submission approach. Instead of sending the paper to journal after journal after journal, waiting years until an acceptance (recall that, unless you’re Bruno Frey, you’re not allowed to submit the same paper to multiple journals simultaneously), you post the paper on a public site, and then journals compete to see who gets to publish it. I think that system would work well with a paper like this which is offbeat but has a nontrivial chance of becoming highly influential. P.S. Just to clar
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Introduction: Daniel Sgroi and Andrew Oswald write : Many governments wish to assess the quality of their universities. A prominent example is the UK’s new Research Excellence Framework (REF) 2014. In the REF, peer-review panels will be provided with information on publications and citations. This paper suggests a way in which panels could choose the weights to attach to these two indicators. The analysis draws in an intuitive way on the concept of Bayesian updating (where citations gradually reveal information about the initially imperfectly-observed importance of the research). Our study should not be interpreted as the argument that only mechanistic measures ought to be used in a REF. I agree that, if you’re going to choose a weighted average, it makes sense to think about where the weights are coming from. Some aspects of Sgroi and Oswald’s proposal remind me of the old idea of evaluating journal articles by expected number of total citations. The idea is that you’d use four pieces of i
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same-blog 1 0.90744275 1251 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-07-Mathematical model of vote operations
Introduction: Alex points me to this paper by Lirong Xia. With its model of independent identically distributed votes, the paper is a bit theoretical for my taste, but maybe it will interest some of you.
2 0.84672296 958 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-14-The General Social Survey is a great resource
Introduction: See, for example, this report by Deborah Carr on changing attitudes about marital infidelity: Two great things about the General Social Survey are: (1) the data are freely available online , and (2) the same questions have been asked since 1972 so you get a nice long series.
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Introduction: Remember that bizarre episode in Freakonomics 2, where Levitt and Dubner went to the Batcave-like lair of a genius billionaire who told them that “the problem with solar panels is that they’re black .” I’m not the only one who wondered at the time: of all the issues to bring up about solar power, why that one? Well, I think I’ve found the answer in this article by John Lanchester: In 2004, Nathan Myhrvold, who had, five years earlier, at the advanced age of forty, retired from his job as Microsoft’s chief technology officer, began to contribute to the culinary discussion board egullet.org . . . At the time he grew interested in sous vide, there was no book in English on the subject, and he resolved to write one. . . . broadened it further to include information about the basic physics of heating processes, then to include the physics and chemistry of traditional cooking techniques, and then to include the science and practical application of the highly inventive new techniq
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Introduction: As we’ve discussed on occasion, conditional probability (“Boltzmann statistics,” in physics jargon) is false at the atomic level. (It’s false at the macroscopic level too, but with discrepancies too small to be detected directly most of the time.) Occasionally I’ve speculated on how quantum probability (that is, the laws of uncertainty that hold in the real world) might be applied to social science research. I’ve made no progress but remain intrigued by the idea. Chris Zorn told me he recently went to a meeting on applications of non-Kolmogorovian / quantum probability to social & human phenomena. Here’s his paper (with Charles Smith), “Some Quantum-Like Features of Mass Politics in Two-Party Systems,” which begins: We [Smith and Zorn] expand the substantive terrain of QI’s reach by illuminating a body of political theory that to date has been elaborated in strictly classical language and formalisms but has complex features that seem to merit generalizations of the prob
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Introduction: The following should be catnip for Andrew. It combines (a) statistics on baby names, (b) time series, and (c) statistics broken down by state. All in one really fun animated visualization by Reuben Fischer-Baum : Sixty Years of the Most Popular Names for Girls As Mark Liberman commented in his re-post on Language Log , this data cries out for some multilevel modeling.
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