andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1322 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains stable (the “rubber band model”) Solution to question 4 From yesterday : 4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimate
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? [sent-2, score-0.326]
2 Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. [sent-5, score-0.609]
3 Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. [sent-6, score-0.721]
4 Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? [sent-7, score-0.274]
5 See this article by Hadaway, Marler, and Chaves, who write, “We suspect that the actual attendance rate has declined since World War II, despite the fact that the survey rate remained basically stable. [sent-9, score-0.922]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('move', 0.254), ('opinion', 0.246), ('attendance', 0.231), ('church', 0.218), ('average', 0.207), ('liberals', 0.196), ('stable', 0.192), ('conservatives', 0.185), ('remains', 0.172), ('survey', 0.16), ('questions', 0.153), ('chaves', 0.152), ('overreport', 0.152), ('accordion', 0.152), ('disribution', 0.152), ('solution', 0.137), ('sharply', 0.137), ('rubber', 0.128), ('band', 0.125), ('rate', 0.12), ('compensating', 0.12), ('wood', 0.117), ('overstate', 0.115), ('attend', 0.115), ('remained', 0.109), ('tradeoffs', 0.109), ('stability', 0.107), ('declined', 0.106), ('estimates', 0.105), ('directions', 0.103), ('block', 0.101), ('issue', 0.1), ('dynamic', 0.099), ('ii', 0.098), ('swing', 0.098), ('naive', 0.092), ('forth', 0.09), ('uniform', 0.09), ('solid', 0.09), ('religious', 0.087), ('trends', 0.082), ('war', 0.081), ('opinions', 0.081), ('describes', 0.08), ('respondents', 0.079), ('surveys', 0.076), ('despite', 0.076), ('considering', 0.076), ('opposite', 0.076), ('yesterday', 0.074)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1322 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-15-Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains stable (the “rubber band model”) Solution to question 4 From yesterday : 4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimate
2 0.74427259 1323 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-16-Question 6 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 6. A survey of New York City residents is performed using cluster sampling. The design effect is 3.0. From the survey, the estimated proportion who prefer the Mets to the Yankees is 0.42 with a standard error of 0.05. How many people were in the sample? Solution to question 5 From yesterday : 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains st
3 0.34628758 1320 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-14-Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? Solution to question 3 From yesterday : 3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would answer such a question honestly.) Solution: I was talking about the work of Gary Gates, combining an estimate of the percentage of gays in the population with an estimate of the probability that someone is in the military, given that he or she is gay.
4 0.16335702 1371 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Question 28 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: This is it, the last question on the exam! 28. A telephone survey was conducted several years ago, asking people how often they were polled in the past year. I can’t recall the responses, but suppose that 40% of the respondents said they participated in zero surveys in the previous year, 30% said they participated in one survey, 15% said two surveys, 10% said three, and 5% said four. From this it is easy to estimate an average, but there is a worry that this survey will itself overrepresent survey participants and thus overestimate the rate at which the average person is surveyed. Come up with a procedure to use these data to get an improved estimate of the average number of surveys that a randomly-sampled American is polled in a year. Solution to question 27 From yesterday : 27. Which of the following problems were identified with the Burnham et al. survey of Iraq mortality? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The survey used cluster sampling, which is inappropriate for estim
5 0.12434965 288 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-21-Discussion of the paper by Girolami and Calderhead on Bayesian computation
Introduction: Here’s my discussion of this article for the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: I will comment on this paper in my role as applied statistician and consumer of Bayesian computation. In the last few years, my colleagues and I have felt the need to fit predictive survey responses given multiple discrete predictors, for example estimating voting given ethnicity and income within each of the fifty states, or estimating public opinion about gay marriage given age, sex, ethnicity, education, and state. We would like to be able to fit such models with ten or more predictors–for example, religion, religious attendance, marital status, and urban/rural/suburban residence in addition to the factors mentioned above. There are (at least) three reasons for fitting a model with many predictive factors and potentially a huge number of interactions among them: 1. Deep interactions can be of substantive interest. For example, Gelman et al. (2009) discuss the importance of interaction
6 0.1151017 1515 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-29-Jost Haidt
7 0.11301786 1368 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-06-Question 27 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
9 0.1034745 1349 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-28-Question 18 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
10 0.10310236 1367 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-05-Question 26 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
11 0.10291426 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
13 0.10113391 715 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-16-“It doesn’t matter if you believe in God. What matters is if God believes in you.”
14 0.095906563 761 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-A survey’s not a survey if they don’t tell you how they did it
15 0.095620692 142 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-12-God, Guns, and Gaydar: The Laws of Probability Push You to Overestimate Small Groups
16 0.091378443 1473 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-28-Turing chess run update
17 0.090176456 962 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-17-Death!
18 0.088689692 1818 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-22-Goal: Rules for Turing chess
19 0.087369159 2255 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-19-How Americans vote
20 0.087194227 1386 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-21-Belief in hell is associated with lower crime rates
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.125), (1, 0.005), (2, 0.16), (3, -0.036), (4, 0.028), (5, 0.056), (6, -0.028), (7, 0.019), (8, 0.003), (9, -0.078), (10, 0.055), (11, -0.078), (12, -0.055), (13, 0.188), (14, -0.049), (15, -0.06), (16, 0.017), (17, -0.001), (18, 0.015), (19, -0.007), (20, -0.026), (21, -0.063), (22, -0.061), (23, 0.002), (24, -0.002), (25, 0.009), (26, 0.048), (27, -0.03), (28, -0.0), (29, -0.046), (30, 0.046), (31, -0.073), (32, 0.003), (33, 0.02), (34, -0.027), (35, -0.007), (36, -0.044), (37, 0.031), (38, 0.086), (39, 0.017), (40, -0.004), (41, 0.108), (42, 0.018), (43, -0.01), (44, -0.004), (45, 0.001), (46, -0.006), (47, -0.041), (48, 0.109), (49, 0.027)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.98508322 1322 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-15-Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains stable (the “rubber band model”) Solution to question 4 From yesterday : 4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimate
2 0.95968133 1323 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-16-Question 6 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 6. A survey of New York City residents is performed using cluster sampling. The design effect is 3.0. From the survey, the estimated proportion who prefer the Mets to the Yankees is 0.42 with a standard error of 0.05. How many people were in the sample? Solution to question 5 From yesterday : 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains st
3 0.80621582 1320 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-14-Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimates of time trends in religious attendance? Solution to question 3 From yesterday : 3. We discussed in class the best currently available method for estimating the proportion of military servicemembers who are gay. What is that method? (Recall the problems with the direct approach: there is no simple way to survey servicemembers at random, nor is it likely that they would answer such a question honestly.) Solution: I was talking about the work of Gary Gates, combining an estimate of the percentage of gays in the population with an estimate of the probability that someone is in the military, given that he or she is gay.
4 0.7682876 1371 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Question 28 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: This is it, the last question on the exam! 28. A telephone survey was conducted several years ago, asking people how often they were polled in the past year. I can’t recall the responses, but suppose that 40% of the respondents said they participated in zero surveys in the previous year, 30% said they participated in one survey, 15% said two surveys, 10% said three, and 5% said four. From this it is easy to estimate an average, but there is a worry that this survey will itself overrepresent survey participants and thus overestimate the rate at which the average person is surveyed. Come up with a procedure to use these data to get an improved estimate of the average number of surveys that a randomly-sampled American is polled in a year. Solution to question 27 From yesterday : 27. Which of the following problems were identified with the Burnham et al. survey of Iraq mortality? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The survey used cluster sampling, which is inappropriate for estim
5 0.72869027 381 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-30-Sorry, Senator DeMint: Most Americans Don’t Want to Ban Gays from the Classroom
Introduction: Justin Phillips placed some questions on the YouGov Model Politics poll and reports the following: Early this month, Senator Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina) angered gay rights organizations when he said that openly gay people (along with sexually active unmarried women) shouldn’t be teaching in the classroom. This comment was originally reported in the Spartanberg Herald-Journal and subsequently covered by a variety of national media outlets including CBS News. The Senator justified his comments by suggesting that his beliefs are shared by many Americans. DeMint told the Herald Journal “[When I said those things] no one came to my defense. But everyone would come to me and whisper that I shouldn’t back down. They don’t want government purging their rights and their freedom to religion.” So is the Senator correct? Do Americans want openly gay men and women out of the classroom? . . . Most Americans do not share Senator DeMint’s views. Our survey shows that a large majorit
6 0.67889541 1326 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-Question 7 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
7 0.67724055 1356 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-31-Question 21 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
8 0.6711995 1362 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-03-Question 24 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
9 0.6459735 1331 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-19-Question 9 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
11 0.64130116 1978 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-12-Fixing the race, ethnicity, and national origin questions on the U.S. Census
12 0.63239986 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
13 0.63071328 1358 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-01-Question 22 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
14 0.63053399 784 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-01-Weighting and prediction in sample surveys
15 0.63047135 385 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked
16 0.6297769 1345 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-26-Question 16 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
17 0.62940729 1365 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-04-Question 25 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
18 0.62703973 705 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-10-Some interesting unpublished ideas on survey weighting
19 0.62278628 1368 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-06-Question 27 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
20 0.61836016 1437 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-Paying survey respondents
topicId topicWeight
[(16, 0.093), (18, 0.027), (24, 0.121), (35, 0.012), (53, 0.012), (62, 0.018), (66, 0.187), (73, 0.014), (86, 0.066), (89, 0.061), (98, 0.011), (99, 0.273)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
1 0.96033013 1192 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-02-These people totally don’t know what Chance magazine is all about
Introduction: I received the following unsolicited email, subject line “Chance Magazine – Comedy Showcase”: Hi Andrew, Hope you’re doing well. I’m writing to let you know that we will be putting on an industry showcase at the brand new Laughing Devil Comedy Club (4738 Vernon Blvd. Long Island City) on Thursday, February 9th at 8:00 PM. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s one stop on the 7 train from Grand Central. Following the showcase, the club will stay open for an industry mingle/happy hour with drink specials and all the business card exchanging you can hope for. This showcase will feature 9 of our best: Steve Hofstetter’s latest album hit #1 in the world. He’ll be hosting Collin Moulton (Showtime Half Hour Special), Tony Deyo (Aspen Comedy Festival), Tom Simmons (Winner of the SF International Comedy Festival), Marc Ryan (Host of Mudslingers), Mike Trainor (TruTV), Jessi Campbell (CMT), Danny Browning (Bob & Tom), and Joe Zimmerman (Sirius/XM). I would love for you (and anyone you’d like to
same-blog 2 0.9447102 1322 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-15-Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 5. Which of the following better describes changes in public opinion on most issues? (Choose only one.) (a) Dynamic stability: On any given issue, average opinion remains stable but liberals and conservatives move back and forth in opposite directions (the “accordion model”) (b) Uniform swing: Average opinion on an issue can move but the liberals and conservatives don’t move much relative to each other (the disribution of opinions is a “solid block of wood”) (c) Compensating tradeoffs: When considering multiple survey questions on the same general topic, average opinion can move sharply to the left or right on individual questions while the average over all the questions remains stable (the “rubber band model”) Solution to question 4 From yesterday : 4. Researchers have found that survey respondents overreport church attendance. Thus, naive estimates from surveys overstate the percentage of Americans who attend church regularly. Does this have a large impact on estimate
3 0.93598843 680 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-26-My talk at Berkeley on Wednesday
Introduction: Something on Applied Bayesian Statistics April 27, 4:10-5 p.m., 1011 Evans Hall I will deliver one of the following three talks: 1. Of beauty, sex, and power: Statistical challenges in estimating small effects 2. Why we (usually) don’t worry about multiple comparisons 3. Parameterization and Bayesian modeling Whoever shows up on time to the seminar gets to vote, and I’ll give the talk that gets the most votes.
4 0.93006337 1439 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-01-A book with a bunch of simple graphs
Introduction: Howard Friedman sent me a new book, The Measure of a Nation, subtitled How to Regain America’s Competitive Edge and Boost Our Global Standing. Without commenting on the substance of Friedman’s recommendations, I’d like to endorse his strategy of presentation, which is to display graph after graph after graph showing the same message over and over again, which is that the U.S. is outperformed by various other countries (mostly in Europe) on a variety of measures. These aren’t graphs I would ever make—they are scatterplots in which the x-axis conveys no information. But they have the advantage of repetition: once you figure out how to read one of the graphs, you can read the others easily. Here’s an example which I found from a quick Google: I can’t actually figure out what is happening on the x-axis, nor do I understand the “star, middle child, dog” thing. But I like the use of graphics. Lots more fun than bullet points. Seriously. P.S. Just to be clear: I am not trying
5 0.9299041 188 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-06-Fake newspaper headlines
Introduction: I used this convenient site to create some images for a talk I’m preparing. (The competing headlines: “Beautiful parents have more daughters” vs. “No compelling evidence that beautiful parents are more or less likely to have daughters.” The latter gets cut off at “No compelling evidence that,” which actually works pretty well to demonstrate the sort of dull headline that would result if newspapers were to publish null results.)
6 0.92676044 536 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-24-Trends in partisanship by state
8 0.91806281 1010 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-14-“Free energy” and economic resources
9 0.9098767 1200 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-06-Some economists are skeptical about microfoundations
10 0.8939181 1271 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-Education could use some systematic evaluation
11 0.88176095 674 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-21-Handbook of Markov Chain Monte Carlo
12 0.87527293 474 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-18-The kind of frustration we could all use more of
13 0.8747443 1323 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-16-Question 6 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
14 0.87115586 1320 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-14-Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
15 0.86778659 1066 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-17-Ripley on model selection, and some links on exploratory model analysis
16 0.86472303 922 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-24-Economists don’t think like accountants—but maybe they should
17 0.86159432 814 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-21-The powerful consumer?
18 0.85621387 2317 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-04-Honored oldsters write about statistics
19 0.85613549 948 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-10-Combining data from many sources
20 0.85518861 1544 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-22-Is it meaningful to talk about a probability of “65.7%” that Obama will win the election?