andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-985 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: According to Chris Wilson , there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that last phrase, “no matter what the cost.” I have no idea which was actually asked to the survey participants, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of public opinion research—sometimes you don’t even know what question was asked! I’m not implying anything sinister on Schoen’s part, it’s just interesting to see these two documents floating around. P.S. More here from Kaiser Fung on fundamental flaws with Schoen’s poll.
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1 According to Chris Wilson , there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. [sent-1, score-0.904]
2 Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that last phrase, “no matter what the cost. [sent-2, score-0.652]
3 ” I have no idea which was actually asked to the survey participants, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of public opinion research—sometimes you don’t even know what question was asked! [sent-3, score-0.796]
4 I’m not implying anything sinister on Schoen’s part, it’s just interesting to see these two documents floating around. [sent-4, score-0.711]
5 More here from Kaiser Fung on fundamental flaws with Schoen’s poll. [sent-7, score-0.199]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 985 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-01-Doug Schoen has 2 poll reports
Introduction: According to Chris Wilson , there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that last phrase, “no matter what the cost.” I have no idea which was actually asked to the survey participants, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of public opinion research—sometimes you don’t even know what question was asked! I’m not implying anything sinister on Schoen’s part, it’s just interesting to see these two documents floating around. P.S. More here from Kaiser Fung on fundamental flaws with Schoen’s poll.
Introduction: Everybody knows how you can lie with statistics by manipulating numbers, making inappropriate comparisons, misleading graphs, etc. But, as I like to remind students, the simplest way to lie with statistics is to just lie! You see this all the time, advocates who make up numbers or present numbers with such little justification that they might as well be made up (as in this purported survey of the “super-rich”). Here I’m not talking about the innumeracy of a Samantha Power or a David Runciman, or Michael Barone-style confusion or Gregg Easterbrook-style cluelessness or even Tucker Carlson-style asininity . No, I’m talking about flat-out lying by a professional who has the numbers and deliberately chooses to misrepresent them. The culprit is pollster Doug Schoen, and the catch was made by Jay Livingston. Schoen wrote the following based on a survey he took of Occupy Wall Street participants: On Oct. 10 and 11, Arielle Alter Confino, a senior researcher at my polli
3 0.20251866 1579 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-16-Hacks, maps, and moon rocks: Recent items in the sister blog
Introduction: 1. Oh no . . . Obama is doooooomed!!!!!!!!!!! (Don’t worry, it’s just Pat Caddell and Doug Schoen talking) 2. Red-blue maps for different slices of the population 3. Picasso paintings, moon rocks, and hand-written Beatles lyrics
4 0.1874544 1444 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-05-Those darn conservative egalitarians
Introduction: Nadia Hassan writes: In your review of the Jacobs and Page book, you argued that while there was an open question of whether government could give voters what they wanted in light of the tax increases they might accept, Jacobs and Page were pretty persuasive about targeted tax hikes and specific programs especially against the freeloader view. Recent discussions, and some focus groups bear out these points exactly. The link is from a report by Stan Greenberg, James Carville, and Erica Seifert. I suppose if you ask Doug Schoen to make up some data, you’ll get a different story.
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Introduction: No joke. See here (from Kaiser Fung). At the Statistics Forum.
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same-blog 1 0.9684549 985 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-01-Doug Schoen has 2 poll reports
Introduction: According to Chris Wilson , there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that last phrase, “no matter what the cost.” I have no idea which was actually asked to the survey participants, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of public opinion research—sometimes you don’t even know what question was asked! I’m not implying anything sinister on Schoen’s part, it’s just interesting to see these two documents floating around. P.S. More here from Kaiser Fung on fundamental flaws with Schoen’s poll.
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Introduction: Kaiser asks the interesting question: How do you measure what restaurants are “overrated”? You can’t just ask people, right? There’s some sort of social element here, that “overrated” implies that someone’s out there doing the rating.
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Introduction: Answer here (courtesy of Kaiser Fung).
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Introduction: Kaiser Fung tells what it’s really like . Here’s a sample: As soon as I [Kaiser] put the substring-concatenate expression together with two lines of code that generate data tables, it choked. Sorta like Dashiell Hammett without the broads and the heaters. And here’s another take, from a slightly different perspective.
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Introduction: Kaiser nails it . The offending article , by John Tierney, somehow ended up in the Science section rather than the Opinion section. As an opinion piece (or, for that matter, a blog), Tierney’s article would be nothing special. But I agree with Kaiser that it doesn’t work as a newspaper article. As Kaiser notes, this story involves a bunch of statistical and empirical claims that are not well resolved by P.R. and rhetoric.
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Introduction: John Eppley asks what I make of this : Eppley is guessing the negative spikes are searches getting swamped by holiday season shoppers.
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Introduction: According to Chris Wilson , there are two versions of the report of the Occupy Wall Street poll from so-called hack pollster Doug Schoen. Here’s the report that Azi Paybarah says that Schoen sent to him, and here’s the final question from the poll: And here’s what’s on Schoen’s own website: Very similar, except for that last phrase, “no matter what the cost.” I have no idea which was actually asked to the survey participants, but it’s a reminder of the difficulties of public opinion research—sometimes you don’t even know what question was asked! I’m not implying anything sinister on Schoen’s part, it’s just interesting to see these two documents floating around. P.S. More here from Kaiser Fung on fundamental flaws with Schoen’s poll.
3 0.78189039 724 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-21-New search engine for data & statistics
Introduction: Jon Goldhill points us to a new search engine, Zanran , which is for finding data and statistics. Goldhill writes: It’s useful when you’re looking for a graph/table rather than a single number. For example, if you look for ‘teenage births rates in the united states’ in Zanran you’ll see a series of graphs. If you check in Google, there’s plenty of material – but you’d have to open everything up to see if it had any real numbers. (I hope you’ll appreciate Zanran’s preview capability as well – hovering over the icons gives a useful preview of the content.)
4 0.78165776 595 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-28-What Zombies see in Scatterplots
Introduction: This video caught my interest – news video clip (from this post2 ) http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~cook/movabletype/archives/2011/02/on_summarizing.html The news commentator did seem to be trying to point out what a couple of states had to say about the claimed relationship – almost on their own. Some methods have been worked out for zombies to do just this! So I grabbed the data as close as I quickly could, modified the code slightly and here’s the zombie veiw of it. PoliticInt.pdf North Carolina is the bolded red curve, Idaho the bolded green curve. Missisipi and New York are the bolded blue. As ugly as it is this is the Bayasian marginal picture – exactly (given MCMC errror). K? p.s. you will get a very confusing picture if you forget to centre the x (i.e. see chapter 4 of Gelman and Hill book)
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Introduction: I’m already on record as saying that Ronald Reagan was a statistician so I think this is ok too . . . Here’s what Columbo does. He hears the killer’s story and he takes it very seriously (it’s murder, and Columbo never jokes about murder), examines all its implications, and finds where it doesn’t fit the data. Then Columbo carefully examines the discrepancies, tries some model expansion, and eventually concludes that he’s proved there’s a problem. OK, now you’re saying: Yeah, yeah, sure, but how does that differ from any other fictional detective? The difference, I think, is that the tradition is for the detective to find clues and use these to come up with hypotheses, or to trap the killer via internal contradictions in his or her statement. I see Columbo is different—and more in keeping with chapter 6 of Bayesian Data Analysis—in that he is taking the killer’s story seriously and exploring all its implications. That’s the essence of predictive model checking: you t
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