andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1207 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Next time Stephen Wolfram is on the phone , maybe he could call the head of Human Resources at his company and get this guy fired?
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same-blog 1 1.0 1207 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-10-A quick suggestion
Introduction: Next time Stephen Wolfram is on the phone , maybe he could call the head of Human Resources at his company and get this guy fired?
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Introduction: Yair points us to this page full of wonderful graphs from the Stephen Wolfram blog. Here are a few: And some words: People talk less about video games as they get older, and more about politics and the weather. Men typically talk more about sports and technology than women—and, somewhat surprisingly to me, they also talk more about movies, television and music. Women talk more about pets+animals, family+friends, relationships—and, at least after they reach child-bearing years, health. . . . Some of this is rather depressingly stereotypical. And most of it isn’t terribly surprising to anyone who’s known a reasonable diversity of people of different ages. But what to me is remarkable is how we can see everything laid out in such quantitative detail in the pictures above—kind of a signature of people’s thinking as they go through life. Of course, the pictures above are all based on aggregate data, carefully anonymized. But if we start looking at individuals, we’ll s
3 0.18878752 735 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-28-New app for learning intro statistics
Introduction: Carol Cronin writes: The new Wolfram Statistics Course Assistant App, which was released today for the iPhone, iPod touch, and iPad. Optimized for mobile devices, the Wolfram Statistics Course Assistant App helps students understand concepts such as mean, median, mode, standard deviation, probabilities, data points, random integers, random real numbers, and more. To see some examples of how you and your readers can use the app, I’d like to encourage you to check out this post on the Wolfram|Alpha Blog. If anybody out there with an i-phone etc. wants to try this out, please let me know how it works. I’m always looking for statistics-learning tools for students. I’m not really happy with the whole “mean, median, mode” thing (see above), but if the app has good things, then an instructor could pick and choose what to recommend, I assume. P.S. This looks better than the last Wolfram initiative we encountered.
4 0.17022428 1421 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-19-Alexa, Maricel, and Marty: Three cellular automata who got on my nerves
Introduction: I received the following two emails within fifteen minutes of each other. First, from “Alexa Russell,” subject line “An idea for a blog post: The Role, Importance, and Power of Words”: Hi Andrew, I’m a researcher/writer for a resource covering the importance of English proficiency in today’s workplace. I came across your blog andrewgelman.com as I was conducting research and I’m interested in contributing an article to your blog because I found the topics you cover very engaging. I’m thinking about writing an article that looks at how the Internet has changed the way English is used today; not only has its syntax changed as a result of the Internet Revolution, but the amount of job opportunities has also shifted as a result of this shift. I’d be happy to work with you on the topic if you have any insights. Thanks, and I look forward to hearing from you soon. Best, Alexa Second, From “Maricel Anderson,” subject line “An idea for a blog post: Healthcare Management and Geri
5 0.16636997 28 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-12-Alert: Incompetent colleague wastes time of hardworking Wolfram Research publicist
Introduction: Marty McKee at Wolfram Research appears to have a very very stupid colleague. McKee wrote to Christian Robert: Your article, “Evidence and Evolution: A review”, caught the attention of one of my colleagues, who thought that it could be developed into an interesting Demonstration to add to the Wolfram Demonstrations Project. As Christian points out, adapting his book review into a computer demonstration would be quite a feat! I wonder what McKee’s colleague could be thinking? I recommend that Wolfram fire McKee’s colleague immediately: what an idiot! P.S. I’m not actually sure that McKee was the author of this email; I’m guessing this was the case because this other very similar email was written under his name. P.P.S. To head off the inevitable comments: Yes, yes, I know this is no big deal and I shouldn’t get bent out of shape about it. But . . . Wolfram Research has contributed such great things to the world, that I hate to think of them wasting any money paying
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Introduction: This story of a Cindy Sherman impersonator reminded me of some graffiti I saw in a bathroom of the Whitney Museum many years ago. My friend Kenny and I had gone there for the Biennial which had an exhibit featuring Keith Haring and others of the neo-taggers (or whatever they were called). The bathroom walls were all painted over by Kenny Scharf [no relation to my friend] in his characteristically irritating doodle style. On top of the ugly stylized graffiti was a Sharpie’d scrawl: “Kenny Scharf is a pretentious asshole.” I suspected this last bit was added by someone else, but maybe it was Scharf himself? Ira Glass is a bigshot and can get Cindy Sherman on the phone, but I was just some guy, all I could do was write Scharf a letter, c/o the Whitney Museum. I described the situation and asked if he was the one who had written, “Kenny Scharf is a pretentious asshole.” He did not reply.
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Introduction: I just got called by a robo-poll. I really think there should be a law that anyone who wants to call like this should be a real person and supply their home phone number. This sort of one-way contact is nothing more than harassment. As well as poisoning the well by reducing the inclination of people to participate in legitimate surveys.
4 0.62357557 1342 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-24-The Used TV Price is Too Damn High
Introduction: Rohin Dhar points me to this post : At Priceonomics, we’ve learned that our users don’t want to buy used products. Rather, they want to buy inexpensive products, and used items happen to be inexpensive. Let someone else eat the initial depreciation, Priceonomics users will swoop in later and get a good deal. . . . But if you want to buy a used television, you are in for a world of hurt. As you peruse through the Craigslist listings for used TVs, you may notice something surprising – the prices are kind of high. Do a quick check on Amazon and your suspicions will be confirmed; lots of people try to sell their used television for more than that same TV would cost brand new. . . . To test our suspicions that something was amiss in the used television market, we compared used TV prices to the prices of buying them new instead. . . . It turns out, people have very inflated expectations for how much they call sell their used TV. Only 3 of the 26 televisions we analyzed were discounte
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Introduction: This , from Jeremy Duns (previously encountered here ), resonates with me: When I asked Thayer why he hadn’t cited Zeigler, he told me very forcefully that he had cited everything , and accused me of libelling him: this means, presumably, that he accused me of libel without checking his article and seeing the ‘citations’ weren’t there. And when he did finally spot that, why did he not tell me I was right, apologize, get them added and explain to me, on his site, below the article or anywhere else that his editor had accidentally missed out his attributions? It’s so frustrating. The kind of people who cheat also seem to be the kind of people who lie when caught at it, and the kind of people who never ever apologize .
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Introduction: Ossama Hamed writes in with a new dynamic graphing software: I have the pleasure to brief you on our Data Visualization software “Trend Compass”. TC is a new concept in viewing statistics and trends in an animated way by displaying in one chart 5 axis (X, Y, Time, Bubble size & Bubble color) instead of just the traditional X and Y axis. . . .
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Introduction: The National Climatic Data Center has tentatively announced that 2010 is, get this, “tied” for warmest on record. Presumably they mean it’s tied to the precision that they quote (1.12 F above the 20th-century average). The uncertainty in the measurements, as well as some fuzziness about exactly what is being measured (how much of the atmosphere, and the oceans) makes these global-average things really suspect. For instance, if there’s more oceanic turnover one year, that can warm the deep ocean but cool the shallow ocean and atmosphere, so even though the heat content of the atmosphere-ocean system goes up, some of these “global-average” estimates can go down. The reverse can happen too. And of course there are various sources of natural variability that are not, these days, what most people are most interested in. So everybody who knows about the climate professes to hate the emphasis on climate records. And yet, they’re irresistible. I’m sure we’ll see the usual clamor of som
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Introduction: Adrien Friggeri has a lovely visualization of US Senators movement between clusters: You have to click the image and play with it to appreciate it. The methodology isn’t yet published – but I can see how this could be very illuminating. The dynamic clustering aspect hasn’t been researched much – one of the notable pieces is the Blei and Lafferty dynamic topic model of Science . I did a static analysis of the US Senate back in 2005 with Wray Buntine and coauthors. Some additional visualizations and the source code are here . We did a dynamic analysis of US Supreme Court on this blog but there’s also a paper . My knowledge on this topic is out of date, however. Who has been doing good work in this area? I’ll organize the links. [added 4/29/12, via Edo Airoldi ]: Visualizing the Evolution of Community Structures in Dynamic Social Networks by Khairi Reda et al (2011) [ PDF ]. [added 4/29/12, via Allen Riddell ] Joint Analysis of Time-Evolving Binary Matrices an
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Introduction: Kent Osband, author of “Pandora’s Risk: Uncertainty at the Core of Finance,” sent along this paper : Fluids are turbulent when tiny differences in space or time make for gross differences in behavior. The mathematical signature of turbulence is an endless moment or cumulant hierarchy. Bayesian tracking of continuous-time processes turns out to have a similar mathematical structure. As a result, tiny doubts about regime change or tiny errors in estimation or calculation are prone under stress to balloon into gross differences of opinion. In effect, reasonable people are bound to disagree. This finding has profound implications for our understanding of financial markets and other instruments of social learning. In particular it explains forecast degradation, frequent trading, excess volatility, and GARCH behavior without imputing widespread irrationality. Rational learning makes markets turbulent. I have not tried to evaluate Osband’s argument but the general idea is very appealin
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