andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1874 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Saw Argo the other day, was impressed by the way it was filmed in such a 70s style, sorta like that movie The Limey or an episode of the Rockford Files. I also felt nostalgia for that relatively nonviolent era. All those hostages and nobody was killed. It’s a good thing the Ayatollah didn’t have some fundamentalist Shiite equivalent of John Yoo telling him to waterboard everybody. At the time we were all so angry and upset about the hostage-taking, but from the perspective of our suicide-bomber era, that whole hostage episode seems so comfortingly mild.
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same-blog 1 1.0 1874 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-28-Nostalgia
Introduction: Saw Argo the other day, was impressed by the way it was filmed in such a 70s style, sorta like that movie The Limey or an episode of the Rockford Files. I also felt nostalgia for that relatively nonviolent era. All those hostages and nobody was killed. It’s a good thing the Ayatollah didn’t have some fundamentalist Shiite equivalent of John Yoo telling him to waterboard everybody. At the time we were all so angry and upset about the hostage-taking, but from the perspective of our suicide-bomber era, that whole hostage episode seems so comfortingly mild.
2 0.10894722 1001 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-10-Three hours in the life of a statistician
Introduction: Kaiser Fung tells what it’s really like . Here’s a sample: As soon as I [Kaiser] put the substring-concatenate expression together with two lines of code that generate data tables, it choked. Sorta like Dashiell Hammett without the broads and the heaters. And here’s another take, from a slightly different perspective.
3 0.095426157 1742 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-27-What is “explanation”?
Introduction: “Explanation” is this thing that social scientists (or people in their everyday lives, acting like social scientists) do, where some event X happens and we supply a coherent story that concludes with X. Sometimes we speak of an event as “overdetermined,” when we can think of many plausible stories that all lead to X. My question today is: what is explanation, in a statistical sense? To understand why this is a question worth asking at all, compare to prediction. Prediction is another thing that we all to, typically in a qualitative fashion: I think she’s gonna win this struggle, I think he’s probably gonna look for a new job, etc. It’s pretty clear how to map everyday prediction into a statistical framework, and we can think of informal qualitative predictions as approximations to the predictions that could be made by a statistical model (as in the classic work of Meehl and others on clinical vs. statistical prediction). Fitting “explanation” into a statistical framework i
4 0.091905437 840 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-05-An example of Bayesian model averaging
Introduction: Jay Ulfelder writes: I see that you blogged about limitations of Bayesian model averaging. As it happens, I was also blogging about BMA, but with an example where it seems to be working reasonably well, at least for the narrow purpose of forecasting. The topic is the analysis I did for CFR earlier this year on nonviolent uprisings. I don’t have time to look into this one but I wanted to pass it on.
5 0.076187931 1493 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-12-Niall Ferguson, the John Yoo line, and the paradox of influence
Introduction: Life is continuous but we think in discrete terms. In applied statistics there’s the p=.05 line which tells us whether a finding is significant or not. Baseball has the Mendoza line. And academia has what might be called the John Yoo line : the point at which nothing you write gets taken seriously, and so you might as well become a hack because you have no scholarly reputation remaining. John Yoo, of course, became a hack because, I assume, he had nothing left to lose. In contrast, historian Niall Ferguson has reportedly been moved to hackery because he has so much to gain . At least that is the analysis of Stephen Marche ( link from Basbøll): Ferguson’s critics have simply misunderstood for whom Ferguson was writing that piece. They imagine that he is working as a professor or as a journalist, and that his standards slipped below those of academia or the media. Neither is right. Look at his speaking agent’s Web site. The fee: 50 to 75 grand per appearance. . . . Tha
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same-blog 1 0.94746411 1874 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-28-Nostalgia
Introduction: Saw Argo the other day, was impressed by the way it was filmed in such a 70s style, sorta like that movie The Limey or an episode of the Rockford Files. I also felt nostalgia for that relatively nonviolent era. All those hostages and nobody was killed. It’s a good thing the Ayatollah didn’t have some fundamentalist Shiite equivalent of John Yoo telling him to waterboard everybody. At the time we were all so angry and upset about the hostage-taking, but from the perspective of our suicide-bomber era, that whole hostage episode seems so comfortingly mild.
2 0.78900611 661 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-14-NYC 1950
Introduction: Coming back from Chicago we flew right over Manhattan. Very impressive as always, to see all those buildings so densely packed. But think of how impressive it must have seemed in 1950! The world had a lot less of everything back in 1950 (well, we had more oil in the ground, but that’s about it), so Manhattan must have just seemed amazing. I can see how American leaders of that period could’ve been pretty smug. Our #1 city was leading the world by so much, it was decades ahead of its time, still impressive even now after 60 years of decay.
3 0.768543 2197 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Peabody here.
Introduction: I saw the trailer for the new Mr. Peabody movie and it looked terrible. They used that weird animation where everything looks round, also the voice had none of the intonations of the “real” Peabody (for some reason, the trailer had the original English voices, maybe they didn’t get their act together to make a dubbed trailer in time for the release here), also the scenes looked pretty stupid. I went back home and checked out Peabody on wikipedia and it turns out that they made 91 episodes! I had no idea. Anyway, here’s my real question: Why bother making a Mr. Peabody movie if you’re not going to do it well? I understand that lots of moviemakers are hacks and there will always be a huge audience for crap in any case, so I’m certainly not demanding that all movies be “good” (in whatever sense that means, from my perceptions). But there are lots and lots of opportunities to make crap movies, there are a million toys and video games and comic book characters and fairy tales and br
4 0.74923772 2300 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-21-Ticket to Baaaath
Introduction: Ooooooh, I never ever thought I’d have a legitimate excuse to tell this story, and now I do! The story took place many years ago, but first I have to tell you what made me think of it: Rasmus Bååth posted the following comment last month: On airplane tickets a Swedish “å” is written as “aa” resulting in Rasmus Baaaath. Once I bought a ticket online and five minutes later a guy from Lufthansa calls me and asks if I misspelled my name… OK, now here’s my story (which is not nearly as good). A long time ago (but when I was already an adult), I was in England for some reason, and I thought I’d take a day trip from London to Bath. So here I am on line, trying to think of what to say at the ticket counter. I remember that in England, they call Bath, Bahth. So, should I ask for “a ticket to Bahth”? I’m not sure, I’m afraid that it will sound silly, like I’m trying to fake an English accent. So, when I get to the front of the line, I say, hesitantly, “I’d like a ticket to Bath?
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Introduction: Jay Livingston writes : I know that in art, quality and value are two very different things. Still, I had to stop and wonder when I read about Domenico and Eleanore De Sole, who in 2004 paid $8.3 million for a painting attributed to Mark Rothko that they now say is a worthless fake. One day a painting is worth $8.3 million; the next day, the same painting – same quality, same capacity to give aesthetic pleasure or do whatever it is that art does – is “worthless.”* Art forgery also makes me wonder about the buyer’s motive. If the buyer wanted only to have and to gaze upon something beautiful, something with artistic merit, then a fake Rothko is no different than a real Rothko. It seems more likely that what the buyer wants is to own something valuable – i.e., something that costs a lot. Displaying your brokerage account statements is just too crude and obvious. What the high-end art market offers is a kind of money laundering. Objects that are rare and therefore expensive
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same-blog 1 0.83381355 1874 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-28-Nostalgia
Introduction: Saw Argo the other day, was impressed by the way it was filmed in such a 70s style, sorta like that movie The Limey or an episode of the Rockford Files. I also felt nostalgia for that relatively nonviolent era. All those hostages and nobody was killed. It’s a good thing the Ayatollah didn’t have some fundamentalist Shiite equivalent of John Yoo telling him to waterboard everybody. At the time we were all so angry and upset about the hostage-taking, but from the perspective of our suicide-bomber era, that whole hostage episode seems so comfortingly mild.
2 0.75338823 1073 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-20-Not quite getting the point
Introduction: I gave this talk the other day and afterwards, a white guy came up to me and said he thought it was no coincidence that the researcher who made the mistake was “Oriental.” He then went on for about 5 minutes explaining his theory. I couldn’t keep myself from laughing—I had to start coughing into a napkin to hide it.
3 0.72066563 393 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-04-Estimating the effect of A on B, and also the effect of B on A
Introduction: Lei Liu writes: I am working with clinicians in infectious disease and international health to study the (possible causal) relation between malnutrition and virus infection episodes (e.g., diarrhea) in babies in developing countries. Basically the clinicians are interested in two questions: does malnutrition cause more diarrhea episodes? does diarrhea lead to malnutrition? The malnutrition status is indicated by height and weight (adjusted, HAZ and WAZ measures) observed every 3 months from birth to 1 year. They also recorded the time of each diarrhea episode during the 1 year follow-up period. They have very solid datasets for analysis. As you can see, this is almost like a chicken and egg problem. I am a layman to causal inference. The method I use is just to do some simple regression. For example, to study the causal relation from malnutrition to diarrhea episodes, I use binary variable (diarrhea yes/no during months 0-3) as response, and use the HAZ at month 0 as covariate
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Introduction: Discussion by a panel of experts at the Statistics Forum .
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