andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-632 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: “Noyes is one of 103 public schools here that have had erasure rates that surpassed D.C. averages at least once since 2008. That’s more than half of D.C. schools.”
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same-blog 1 1.0 632 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-28-Wobegon on the Potomac
Introduction: “Noyes is one of 103 public schools here that have had erasure rates that surpassed D.C. averages at least once since 2008. That’s more than half of D.C. schools.”
2 0.16451871 1353 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-30-Question 20 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 20. Explain in two sentences why we expect survey respondents to be honest about vote preferences but possibly dishonest about reporting unhealty behaviors. Solution to question 19 From yesterday : 19. A survey is taken of students in a metropolitan area. At the first stage a school is sampled at random. The schools are divided into two strata: 20 private schools and 50 public schools are sampled. At the second stage, 5 classes are sampled within each sampled school. At the third stage, 10 students are sampled within each class. What is the probability that any given student is sampled? Express this in terms of the number of students in the class, number of classes in the school, and number of schools in the area. Define appropriate notation as needed. Solution: Probability a student is sampled is A*B*C, where A = 20/(# private schools) if the student is at a private school, or 50/(# public schools) if the student is at a public school, B = 5/(# classes in the student
3 0.15156907 1352 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-29-Question 19 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 19. A survey is taken of students in a metropolitan area. At the first stage a school is sampled at random. The schools are divided into two strata: 20 private schools and 50 public schools are sampled. At the second stage, 5 classes are sampled within each sampled school. At the third stage, 10 students are sampled within each class. What is the probability that any given student is sampled? Express this in terms of the number of students in the class, number of classes in the school, and number of schools in the area. Define appropriate notation as needed. Solution to question 18 From yesterday : 18. A survey is taken of 100 undergraduates, 100 graduate students, and 100 continuing education students at a university. Assume a simple random sample within each group. Each student is asked to rate his or her satisfaction (on a 1–10 scale) with his or her experiences. Write the estimate and standard error of the average satisfaction of all the students at the university. Introd
Introduction: I was just reading an old post and came across this example which I’d like to share with you again: Here’s a story of R-squared = 1%. Consider a 0/1 outcome with about half the people in each category. For.example, half the people with some disease die in a year and half live. Now suppose there’s a treatment that increases survival rate from 50% to 60%. The unexplained sd is 0.5 and the explained sd is 0.05, hence R-squared is 0.01.
5 0.1097046 944 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-05-How accurate is your gaydar?
Introduction: Sanjay Srivastava reports : In a typical study, half of the targets are gay/lesbian and half are straight, so a purely random guesser (i.e., someone with no gaydar) would be around 50%. The reported accuracy rates in the articles . . . say that people guess correctly about 65% of the time. . . . Let’s assume that the 65% accuracy rate is symmetric — that guessers are just as good at correctly identifying gays/lesbians as they are in identifying straight people. Let’s also assume that 5% of people are actually gay/lesbian. From those numbers, a quick calculation tells us that for a randomly-selected member of the population, if your gaydar says “GAY” there is a 9% chance that you are right. Eerily accurate? Not so much. If you rely too much on your gaydar, you are going to make a lot of dumb mistakes. . . . It’s the classic problem of combining direct evidence with base rates.
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same-blog 1 0.97046083 632 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-28-Wobegon on the Potomac
Introduction: “Noyes is one of 103 public schools here that have had erasure rates that surpassed D.C. averages at least once since 2008. That’s more than half of D.C. schools.”
2 0.71352112 1353 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-30-Question 20 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 20. Explain in two sentences why we expect survey respondents to be honest about vote preferences but possibly dishonest about reporting unhealty behaviors. Solution to question 19 From yesterday : 19. A survey is taken of students in a metropolitan area. At the first stage a school is sampled at random. The schools are divided into two strata: 20 private schools and 50 public schools are sampled. At the second stage, 5 classes are sampled within each sampled school. At the third stage, 10 students are sampled within each class. What is the probability that any given student is sampled? Express this in terms of the number of students in the class, number of classes in the school, and number of schools in the area. Define appropriate notation as needed. Solution: Probability a student is sampled is A*B*C, where A = 20/(# private schools) if the student is at a private school, or 50/(# public schools) if the student is at a public school, B = 5/(# classes in the student
3 0.69322705 1352 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-29-Question 19 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 19. A survey is taken of students in a metropolitan area. At the first stage a school is sampled at random. The schools are divided into two strata: 20 private schools and 50 public schools are sampled. At the second stage, 5 classes are sampled within each sampled school. At the third stage, 10 students are sampled within each class. What is the probability that any given student is sampled? Express this in terms of the number of students in the class, number of classes in the school, and number of schools in the area. Define appropriate notation as needed. Solution to question 18 From yesterday : 18. A survey is taken of 100 undergraduates, 100 graduate students, and 100 continuing education students at a university. Assume a simple random sample within each group. Each student is asked to rate his or her satisfaction (on a 1–10 scale) with his or her experiences. Write the estimate and standard error of the average satisfaction of all the students at the university. Introd
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Introduction: 18. A survey is taken of 100 undergraduates, 100 graduate students, and 100 continuing education students at a university. Assume a simple random sample within each group. Each student is asked to rate his or her satisfaction (on a 1–10 scale) with his or her experiences. Write the estimate and standard error of the average satisfaction of all the students at the university. Introduce notation as necessary for all the information needed to solve the problem. Solution to question 17 From yesterday : 17. In a survey of n people, half are asked if they support “the health care law recently passed by Congress” and half are asked if they support “the law known as Obamacare.” The goal is to estimate the effect of the wording on the proportion of Yes responses. How large must n be for the effect to be estimated within a standard error of 5 percentage points? Solution: se is sqrt(.5*.5/(n/2)+.5*.5/(n/2)) = 1/sqrt(n). Solve 1/sqrt(n) = .05, you get n = (1/.05)^2 = 400.
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Introduction: After reading the Rewarding Strivers book , I had some thoughts about how to make the college admissions system more fair to students from varying socioeconomic backgrounds. Instead of boosting up the disadvantaged students, why not pull down the advantaged students? Here’s the idea. Disadvantaged students are defined typically not by a bad thing that they have, but rather by good things that they don’t have: financial resources, a high-quality education, and so forth. In contrast, advantaged students get all sorts of freebies. So here are my suggestions: 1. All high school grades on a 4-point scale (A=4, B=3, etc). No more of this 5-points-for-an-A-in-an-AP course, which gives the ridiculous outcomes of kids graduating with a 4.3 average, not so fair to kids in schools that don’t offer a lot of AP classes. 2. Subtract points for taking the SAT multiple times. A simple rule would be: You can use your highest SAT score, but you lose 50 points for every other time
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