andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1953 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Would You Accept DNA From A Murderer?
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same-blog 1 1.0 1953 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-24-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Would You Accept DNA From A Murderer?
2 0.10412745 1446 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-06-“And will pardon Paul Claudel, Pardons him for writing well”
Introduction: In our recent discussion of plagiarism and fake quotes, a commenter points to two recent posts by Mark Liberman ( here and here ) where Liberman links to about a zillion cases of journalists publishing quotes that were never said. He goes into some detail about two journalists from the New Yorker: Jared Diamond, who created quotes from a some dude in Papua New Guinea (ironically, one of Diamond’s accusers here is the widow of Stephen Jay Gould), and Janet Malcolm, who not only apparently falsified quotes by a subject of one of her articles, she also may have faked the notes for her interviews. I didn’t know that particular bit about Janet Malcolm, but I’ve felt very uncomfortable about her ever since she her apparent attempt to try to force a mistrial for a convicted killer. Between that case and her earlier The Journalist and the Murderer, Malcolm really does seem to have some sort of sympathy for people who kill their family members. She’s a good writer, but I still find
3 0.089426652 2121 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-02-Should personal genetic testing be regulated? Battle of the blogroll
Introduction: On the side of less regulation is Alex Tabarrok in “Our DNA, Our Selves”: At the same time that the NSA is secretly and illegally obtaining information about Americans the FDA is making it illegal for Americans to obtain information about themselves. In a warning letter the FDA has told Anne Wojcicki, The Most Daring CEO In America, that she “must immediately discontinue” selling 23andMe’s Personal Genome Service . . . Alex clarifies: I am not offended by all regulation of genetic tests. Indeed, genetic tests are already regulated. . . . the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) . . . requires all labs, including the labs used by 23andMe, to be inspected for quality control, record keeping and the qualifications of their personnel. . . . What the FDA wants to do is categorically different. The FDA wants to regulate genetic tests as a high-risk medical device . . . the FDA wants to judge . . . the clinical validity, whether particular identified alleles are cau
4 0.072672747 197 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The last great essayist?
Introduction: I recently read a bizarre article by Janet Malcolm on a murder trial in NYC. What threw me about the article was that the story was utterly commonplace (by the standards of today’s headlines): divorced mom kills ex-husband in a custody dispute over their four-year-old daughter. The only interesting features were (a) the wife was a doctor and the husband were a dentist, the sort of people you’d expect to sue rather than slay, and (b) the wife hired a hitman from within the insular immigrant community that she (and her husband) belonged to. But, really, neither of these was much of a twist. To add to the non-storyness of it all, there were no other suspects, the evidence against the wife and the hitman was overwhelming, and even the high-paid defense lawyers didn’t seem to be making much of an effort to convince anyone of their client’s innocents. (One of the closing arguments was that one aspect of the wife’s story was so ridiculous that it had to be true. In the lawyer’s wo
5 0.07202854 1300 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-05-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
6 0.061601523 53 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-Tumors, on the left, or on the right?
7 0.051325105 1556 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-01-Recently in the sister blogs: special pre-election edition!
8 0.043127522 1444 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-05-Those darn conservative egalitarians
10 0.033748344 504 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-05-For those of you in the U.K., also an amusing paradox involving the infamous hookah story
11 0.030989122 1756 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-10-He said he was sorry
12 0.030326325 2263 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models
13 0.023925539 1273 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-Proposals for alternative review systems for scientific work
14 0.023358349 2127 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-08-The never-ending (and often productive) race between theory and practice
15 0.022197388 834 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-01-I owe it all to the haters
16 0.022013219 1872 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-More spam!
17 0.021602821 88 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-15-What people do vs. what they want to do
18 0.021127192 2177 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-19-“The British amateur who debunked the mathematics of happiness”
19 0.020837495 1137 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-24-Difficulties in publishing non-replications of implausible findings
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same-blog 1 0.81147319 1953 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-24-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Would You Accept DNA From A Murderer?
2 0.4993085 1107 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-08-More on essentialism
Introduction: Matthieu Authier writes: I just read Genetic essentialism is in our genes . Here are a few papers from Kenneth Weiss about this missing heritability problem and genetic essentialism: Evol.Ant.2011 – Weiss – Seeing the forest through the gene-trees Genetics.2011 – Weiss.&.Buchanan – Is life-law-like
3 0.47628337 2121 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-02-Should personal genetic testing be regulated? Battle of the blogroll
Introduction: On the side of less regulation is Alex Tabarrok in “Our DNA, Our Selves”: At the same time that the NSA is secretly and illegally obtaining information about Americans the FDA is making it illegal for Americans to obtain information about themselves. In a warning letter the FDA has told Anne Wojcicki, The Most Daring CEO In America, that she “must immediately discontinue” selling 23andMe’s Personal Genome Service . . . Alex clarifies: I am not offended by all regulation of genetic tests. Indeed, genetic tests are already regulated. . . . the Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments (CLIA) . . . requires all labs, including the labs used by 23andMe, to be inspected for quality control, record keeping and the qualifications of their personnel. . . . What the FDA wants to do is categorically different. The FDA wants to regulate genetic tests as a high-risk medical device . . . the FDA wants to judge . . . the clinical validity, whether particular identified alleles are cau
Introduction: Paul Alper writes: You recently posted on graphs and how to convey information. I don’t believe you have ever posted anything on this dynamite randomized clinical trial of 90,000 (!!) 40-59 year-old women over a 25-year period (also !!). The graphs below are figures 2, 3 and 4 respectively, of http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g366 The control was physical exam only and the treatment was physical exam plus mammography. The graph clearly shows that mammography adds virtually nothing to survival and if anything, decreases survival (and increases cost and provides unnecessary treatment). Note the superfluousness of the p-values. There is an accompanying editorial in the BMJ http://www.bmj.com/content/348/bmj.g1403 which refers to “vested interests” which can override any statistics, no matter how striking: We agree with Miller and colleagues that “the rationale for screening by mammography be urgently reassessed by policy makers.” As time goes
5 0.46372694 1774 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-22-Likelihood Ratio ≠ 1 Journal
Introduction: Dan Kahan writes : The basic idea . . . is to promote identification of study designs that scholars who disagree about a proposition would agree would generate evidence relevant to their competing conjectures—regardless of what studies based on such designs actually find. Articles proposing designs of this sort would be selected for publication and only then be carried out, by the proposing researchers with funding from the journal, which would publish the results too. Now I [Kahan] am aware of a set of real journals that have a similar motivation. One is the Journal of Articles in Support of the Null Hypothesis, which as its title implies publishes papers reporting studies that fail to “reject” the null. Like JASNH, LR ≠1J would try to offset the “file drawer” bias and like bad consequences associated with the convention of publishing only findings that are “significant at p < 0.05." But it would try to do more. By publishing studies that are deemed to have valid designs an
6 0.44882673 2102 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-15-“Are all significant p-values created equal?”
7 0.44078586 1272 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-More proposals to reform the peer-review system
8 0.42679766 1756 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-10-He said he was sorry
9 0.4267754 53 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-26-Tumors, on the left, or on the right?
10 0.41825879 284 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-18-Continuing efforts to justify false “death panels” claim
11 0.41726148 1329 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Those mean psychologists, making fun of dodgy research!
12 0.41554883 985 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-01-Doug Schoen has 2 poll reports
13 0.40907356 562 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-06-Statistician cracks Toronto lottery
14 0.40832528 113 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-28-Advocacy in the form of a “deliberative forum”
15 0.40778893 463 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-11-Compare p-values from privately funded medical trials to those in publicly funded research?
16 0.40505019 1093 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-30-Strings Attached: Untangling the Ethics of Incentives
17 0.40463123 1922 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-02-They want me to send them free material and pay for the privilege
18 0.39867243 1024 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-23-Of hypothesis tests and Unitarians
19 0.39776218 2199 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-04-Widening the goalposts in medical trials
20 0.39505398 2023 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-14-On blogging
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same-blog 1 0.86371028 1953 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-24-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Would You Accept DNA From A Murderer?
2 0.77753067 1685 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-21-Class on computational social science this semester, Fridays, 1:00-3:40pm
Introduction: Sharad Goel, Jake Hofman, and Sergei Vassilvitskii are teaching this awesome class on computational social science this semester in the applied math department at Columbia. Here’s the course info . You should take this course. These guys are amazing.
3 0.66529065 1477 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-30-Visualizing Distributions of Covariance Matrices
Introduction: Since we’ve been discussing prior distributions on covariance matrices, I will recommend this recent article (coauthored with Tomoki Tokuda, Ben Goodrich, Iven Van Mechelen, and Francis Tuerlinckx) on their visualization: We present some methods for graphing distributions of covariance matrices and demonstrate them on several models, including the Wishart, inverse-Wishart, and scaled inverse-Wishart families in different dimensions. Our visualizations follow the principle of decomposing a covariance matrix into scale parameters and correlations, pulling out marginal summaries where possible and using two and three-dimensional plots to reveal multivariate structure. Visualizing a distribution of covariance matrices is a step beyond visualizing a single covariance matrix or a single multivariate dataset. Our visualization methods are available through the R package VisCov.
4 0.66067761 2243 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-11-The myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand
Introduction: Phil pointed me to this paper so I thought I probably better repeat what I wrote a couple years ago: 1. The effects are certainly not zero. We are not machines, and anything that can affect our expectations (for example, our success in previous tries) should affect our performance. 2. The effects I’ve seen are small, on the order of 2 percentage points (for example, the probability of a success in some sports task might be 45% if you’re “hot” and 43% otherwise). 3. There’s a huge amount of variation, not just between but also among players. Sometimes if you succeed you will stay relaxed and focused, other times you can succeed and get overconfidence. 4. Whatever the latest results on particular sports, I can’t see anyone overturning the basic finding of Gilovich, Vallone, and Tversky that players and spectators alike will perceive the hot hand even when it does not exist and dramatically overestimate the magnitude and consistency of any hot-hand phenomenon that does exist.
5 0.63483727 1215 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-16-The “hot hand” and problems with hypothesis testing
Introduction: Gur Yaari writes : Anyone who has ever watched a sports competition is familiar with expressions like “on fire”, “in the zone”, “on a roll”, “momentum” and so on. But what do these expressions really mean? In 1985 when Thomas Gilovich, Robert Vallone and Amos Tversky studied this phenomenon for the first time, they defined it as: “. . . these phrases express a belief that the performance of a player during a particular period is significantly better than expected on the basis of the player’s overall record”. Their conclusion was that what people tend to perceive as a “hot hand” is essentially a cognitive illusion caused by a misperception of random sequences. Until recently there was little, if any, evidence to rule out their conclusion. Increased computing power and new data availability from various sports now provide surprising evidence of this phenomenon, thus reigniting the debate. Yaari goes on to some studies that have found time dependence in basketball, baseball, voll
6 0.55716574 1160 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-09-Familial Linkage between Neuropsychiatric Disorders and Intellectual Interests
7 0.53220135 1756 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-10-He said he was sorry
8 0.53057981 459 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-09-Solve mazes by starting at the exit
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12 0.39254808 1032 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-28-Does Avastin work on breast cancer? Should Medicare be paying for it?
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14 0.28741395 1647 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-01-Neoconservatism circa 1986
15 0.28423169 566 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-09-The boxer, the wrestler, and the coin flip, again
16 0.27825111 1991 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-21-BDA3 table of contents (also a new paper on visualization)
17 0.27147236 623 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-21-Baseball’s greatest fielders
18 0.27026984 1320 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-14-Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
19 0.2612744 1783 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-31-He’s getting ready to write a book
20 0.24987948 593 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-27-Heat map