andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-990 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: There is no increased inequality, unless you look at the top 1% The revolving door of U.S. politics The redistricting song
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same-blog 1 1.0 990 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-04-At the politics blogs . . .
Introduction: There is no increased inequality, unless you look at the top 1% The revolving door of U.S. politics The redistricting song
2 0.15890841 1300 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-05-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
3 0.14855736 495 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-“Threshold earners” and economic inequality
Introduction: Reihan Salam discusses a theory of Tyler Cowen regarding “threshold earners,” a sort of upscale version of a slacker. Here’s Cowen : A threshold earner is someone who seeks to earn a certain amount of money and no more. If wages go up, that person will respond by seeking less work or by working less hard or less often. That person simply wants to “get by” in terms of absolute earning power in order to experience other gains in the form of leisure. Salam continues: This clearly reflects the pattern of wage dispersion among my friends, particularly those who attended elite secondary schools and colleges and universities. I [Salam] know many “threshold earners,” including both high and low earners who could earn much more if they chose to make the necessary sacrifices. But they are satisficers. OK, fine so far. But then the claim is made that “threshold earning” behavior increases income inequality. In Cowen’s words: The funny thing is this: For years, many cultural c
4 0.12528569 1145 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-30-A tax on inequality, or a tax to keep inequality at the current level?
Introduction: My sometime coauthor Aaron Edlin cowrote (with Ian Ayres) an op-ed recommending a clever approach to taxing the rich. In their article they employ a charming bit of economics jargon, using the word “earn” to mean “how much money you make.” They “propose an automatic extra tax on the income of the top 1 percent of earners.” I assume their tax would apply to unearned income as well, but they (or their editor at the Times) are just so used to describing income as “earnings” that they just threw that in. Funny. Also, there’s a part of the article that doesn’t make sense to me. Ayres and Edlin first describe the level of inequality: In 1980 the average 1-percenter made 12.5 times the median income, but in 2006 (the latest year for which data is available) the average income of our richest 1 percent was a whopping 36 times greater than that of the median household. Then they lay out their solution: Enough is enough. . . . we propose an automatic extra tax on the income
5 0.11960053 98 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Further thoughts on happiness and life satisfaction research
Introduction: As part of my continuing research project with Grazia and Roberto, I’ve been reading papers on happiness and life satisfaction research. I’ll share with you my thoughts on some of the published work in this area. Alberto Alesina,, Rafael Di Tella, and Robert MacCulloch published a paper in 2004 called “Inequality and happiness: are Europeans and Americans different?”: We study the effect of the level of inequality in society on individual well-being using a total of 123,668 answers to a survey question about “happiness.” We find that individuals have a lower tendency to report themselves happy when inequality is high, even after controlling for individual income, a large set of personal characteristics, and year and country (or, in the case of the US, state) dummies. The effect, however, is more precisely defined statistically in Europe than in the US. In addition, we find striking differences across groups. In Europe, the poor and those on the left of the political spectru
6 0.11158176 1663 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-09-The effects of fiscal consolidation
7 0.11146368 478 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-20-More on why “all politics is local” is an outdated slogan
8 0.10977703 1079 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-23-Surveys show Americans are populist class warriors, except when they aren’t
9 0.096781954 666 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-18-American Beliefs about Economic Opportunity and Income Inequality
10 0.095657907 926 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-26-NYC
11 0.091007262 1822 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-24-Samurai sword-wielding Mormon bishop pharmaceutical statistician stops mugger
12 0.08045195 475 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-All politics are local — not
13 0.078871779 508 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-08-More evidence of growing nationalization of congressional elections
14 0.077510998 108 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-24-Sometimes the raw numbers are better than a percentage
15 0.067327537 371 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-26-Musical chairs in econ journals
17 0.062300596 2339 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-19-On deck this week
19 0.06086747 1164 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-13-Help with this problem, win valuable prizes
20 0.055331431 1039 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-02-I just flew in from the econ seminar, and boy are my arms tired
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same-blog 1 0.97481477 990 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-04-At the politics blogs . . .
Introduction: There is no increased inequality, unless you look at the top 1% The revolving door of U.S. politics The redistricting song
2 0.66205293 1300 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-05-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Culture war: The rules You can only accept capital punishment if you’re willing to have innocent people executed every now and then The politics of America’s increasing economic inequality
3 0.62153459 1587 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-21-Red state blue state, or, states and counties are not persons
Introduction: Tyler Cowen points to this news article by Lauren Sandler: Stunningly, the postponement of marriage and parenting — the factors that shrink the birth rate — is the very best predictor of a person’s politics in the United States, over even income and education levels, a Belgian demographer named Ron Lesthaeghe [and coauthor Lisa Neidert] has discovered . Larger family size in America correlates to early marriage and childbirth, lower women’s employment, and opposition to gay rights — all social factors that lead voters to see red. All the analysis in the linked paper is at the state and county level. That’s fine but this is not going to tell you what is a “predictor of a person’s politics.” Cowen labels his post “Sentences to ponder,” and what I want to ponder is that people are so quick to jump from aggregate to individual patterns. And, yes, I know that aggregate patterns are related to individual patterns but they’re not the same. In particular, from the evidence we’
4 0.57320404 1169 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-15-Charles Murray on the new upper class
Introduction: The other day I posted some comments on the voting patterns of rich and poor in the context of Charles Murray’s recent book, “Coming Apart.” My graphs on income and voting are just fine, but I mischaracterized Murray’s statements. So I want to fix that right away. After that I have some thoughts on the book itself. In brief: 1. I was unfair to call him a Tucker Carlson. 2. Murray talks a lot about upper-class liberals. That’s fine but I think his discussion would be improved by also considering upper-class conservatives, given that I see the big culture war occurring within the upper class. 3. Using the case of Joe Paterno as an example, I discuss why Murray’s “preach what you practice” advice could be difficult to carry out in practice. Murray on the top 5% David Frum quoted Murray as writing that the top 5% “tends to be liberal—right? There’s no getting around it. Every way of answering this question produces a yes.” In response, Frum and I both pointed out t
5 0.56407148 495 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-31-“Threshold earners” and economic inequality
Introduction: Reihan Salam discusses a theory of Tyler Cowen regarding “threshold earners,” a sort of upscale version of a slacker. Here’s Cowen : A threshold earner is someone who seeks to earn a certain amount of money and no more. If wages go up, that person will respond by seeking less work or by working less hard or less often. That person simply wants to “get by” in terms of absolute earning power in order to experience other gains in the form of leisure. Salam continues: This clearly reflects the pattern of wage dispersion among my friends, particularly those who attended elite secondary schools and colleges and universities. I [Salam] know many “threshold earners,” including both high and low earners who could earn much more if they chose to make the necessary sacrifices. But they are satisficers. OK, fine so far. But then the claim is made that “threshold earning” behavior increases income inequality. In Cowen’s words: The funny thing is this: For years, many cultural c
6 0.55090022 1145 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-30-A tax on inequality, or a tax to keep inequality at the current level?
7 0.53977418 630 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-27-What is an economic “conspiracy theory”?
8 0.53889549 1271 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-20-Education could use some systematic evaluation
9 0.53293902 50 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-25-Looking for Sister Right
10 0.5329228 1325 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-17-More on the difficulty of “preaching what you practice”
12 0.52469373 2060 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-13-New issue of Symposium magazine
13 0.51766354 98 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Further thoughts on happiness and life satisfaction research
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15 0.50321209 97 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Economic Disparities and Life Satisfaction in European Regions
16 0.50192386 1097 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-03-Libertarians in Space
18 0.49713677 1079 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-23-Surveys show Americans are populist class warriors, except when they aren’t
19 0.49709314 636 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-29-The Conservative States of America
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same-blog 1 0.93472433 990 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-04-At the politics blogs . . .
Introduction: There is no increased inequality, unless you look at the top 1% The revolving door of U.S. politics The redistricting song
2 0.76924157 457 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-07-Whassup with phantom-limb treatment?
Introduction: OK, here’s something that is completely baffling me. I read this article by John Colapinto on the neuroscientist V. S. Ramachandran, who’s famous for his innovative treatment for “phantom limb” pain: His first subject was a young man who a decade earlier had crashed his motorcycle and torn from his spinal column the nerves supplying the left arm. After keeping the useless arm in a sling for a year, the man had the arm amputated above the elbow. Ever since, he had felt unremitting cramping in the phantom limb, as though it were immobilized in an awkward position. . . . Ramachandram positioned a twenty-inch-by-twenty-inch drugstore mirror . . . and told him to place his intact right arm on one side of the mirror and his stump on the other. He told the man to arrange the mirror so that the reflection created the illusion that his intact arm was the continuation of the amputated one. The Ramachandran asked the man to move his right and left arms . . . “Oh, my God!” the man began
3 0.66914099 1333 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-20-Question 10 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 10. Out of a random sample of 100 Americans, zero report having ever held political office. From this information, give a 95% confidence interval for the proportion of Americans who have ever held political office. Solution to question 9 From yesterday : 9. Out of a population of 100 medical records, 40 are randomly sampled and then audited. 10 out of the 40 audits reveal fraud. From this information, give an estimate, standard error, and 95% confidence interval for the proportion of audits in the population with fraud. Solution: estimate is p.hat=10/40=0.25. Se is sqrt(1-f)*sqrt(p.hat*(1-.hat)/n)=sqrt(1-0.4)*sqrt(0.25*0.75/40)=0.053. 95% interval is [0.25 +/- 2*0.053] = [0.14,0.36].
4 0.65795445 2063 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-16-My talk 19h this evening
Introduction: Modélisation hiérarchique, pooling partiel et l’interrogation de bases de données virtuelles P.S. Here are the slides . I only got through a few of them. I have to remember that when I speak in another language, I go much slower.
5 0.64173836 1993 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-22-Improvements to Kindle Version of BDA3
Introduction: I let Andrew know about the comments about the defective Kindle version of BDA2 and he wrote to his editor at Chapman and Hall, Rob Calver, who wrote back with this info: I can guarantee that the Kindle version of the third edition will be a substantial improvement. We publish all of our mathematics and statistics books through Kindle now as Print Replica. This means that we send the printer pdf to Amazon and they convert into their Print Replica format, which is essentially just a pdf viewer. We have not experienced very many issues at all with this setup. Unfortunately, there was a period before Amazon launched Print Replica when they converted math/stat books into their Kindle format, and converted them very badly in some cases. Equations were held as images, making them very difficult to read. It appears this was the case with Andrew’s second edition, judging by some of the comments. The third edition [of BDA] will be available through Kindle with a short delay (for Amazo
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12 0.49343237 1365 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-04-Question 25 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
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16 0.47604954 2056 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-09-Mister P: What’s its secret sauce?
17 0.46703488 100 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-19-Unsurprisingly, people are more worried about the economy and jobs than about deficits
18 0.46001124 463 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-11-Compare p-values from privately funded medical trials to those in publicly funded research?
19 0.4552063 1361 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-02-Question 23 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
20 0.4440518 2074 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-23-Can’t Stop Won’t Stop Mister P Beatdown