andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2331 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Mon: “The results (not shown) . . .” Tues: Personally, I’d rather go with Teragram Wed: How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations? Thurs: Bill Easterly vs. Jeff Sachs: What percentage of the recipients didn’t use the free malaria bed nets in Zambia? Fri: Models with constraints Sat: Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection Sun: Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism
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same-blog 1 1.0 2331 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon: “The results (not shown) . . .” Tues: Personally, I’d rather go with Teragram Wed: How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations? Thurs: Bill Easterly vs. Jeff Sachs: What percentage of the recipients didn’t use the free malaria bed nets in Zambia? Fri: Models with constraints Sat: Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection Sun: Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism
2 0.45056894 2320 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-05-On deck this month
Introduction: Can we make better graphs of global temperature history? Priors I don’t believe Cause he thinks he’s so-phisticated Discussion with Steven Pinker on research that is attached to data that are so noisy as to be essentially uninformative Combining forecasts: Evidence on the relative accuracy of the simple average and Bayesian model averaging for predicting social science problems What property is important in a risk prediction model? Discrimination or calibration? “What should you talk about?” Science tells us that fast food lovers are more likely to marry other fast food lovers Personally, I’d rather go with Teragram How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations? Bill Easterly vs. Jeff Sachs: What percentage of the recipients didn’t use the free malaria bed nets in Zambia? Models with constraints Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism M
Introduction: I came across this from Jeff Sachs: [Bill Easterly in his 2006 book] went on to write that “a study of a program to hand out free [malaria bed] nets in Zambia to people … found that 70 percent of the recipients didn’t use the nets.” Yet this particular study, which was conducted by the American Red Cross and CORE, actually showed the program was a success, with high rates of net adoption. Sachs provides a link to this 2004 study . I followed the link and took a quick look at the study, and indeed in the intro it says, “Household ITN coverage increased from 28.9 percent (pre-campaign) to 85 percent (with a greater than 80 percent coverage across all wealth quintiles). . . . At six months post-campaign . . . and 60 percent of the pregnant women and children under 5 years old were reported to have slept under the net the previous night.” 60% of 85% is far from ideal but it’s a lot higher than “70 percent of the recipients didn’t use the nets.” But I am no expert in this area
4 0.24568018 2366 andrew gelman stats-2014-06-09-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon: I hate polynomials Tues: Spring forward, fall back, drop dead? Wed: Bayes in the research conversation Thurs: The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice? Fri: Stroopy names Sat: He’s not so great in math but wants to do statistics and machine learning Sun: Comparing the full model to the partial model
5 0.24558674 2240 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-10-On deck this week: Things people sent me
Introduction: Mon: Preregistration: what’s in it for you? Tues: What if I were to stop publishing in journals? Wed: Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Thurs: An Economist’s Guide to Visualizing Data Fri: The maximal information coefficient Sat: Problematic interpretations of confidence intervals Sun: The more you look, the more you find
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19 0.14114447 2265 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-24-On deck this week
20 0.13696076 717 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-17-Statistics plagiarism scandal
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same-blog 1 0.97443306 2331 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon: “The results (not shown) . . .” Tues: Personally, I’d rather go with Teragram Wed: How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations? Thurs: Bill Easterly vs. Jeff Sachs: What percentage of the recipients didn’t use the free malaria bed nets in Zambia? Fri: Models with constraints Sat: Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection Sun: Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism
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Introduction: Mon : The most-cited statistics papers ever Tues : American Psychological Society announces a new journal Wed : Am I too negative? Thurs : As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake Fri : The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems Sat : Bizarre academic spam Sun : An old discussion of food deserts
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Introduction: Mon: I hate polynomials Tues: Spring forward, fall back, drop dead? Wed: Bayes in the research conversation Thurs: The health policy innovation center: how best to move from pilot studies to large-scale practice? Fri: Stroopy names Sat: He’s not so great in math but wants to do statistics and machine learning Sun: Comparing the full model to the partial model
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Introduction: Mon : Ticket to Baaaath Tues : Ticket to Baaaaarf Wed : Thinking of doing a list experiment? Here’s a list of reasons why you should think again Thurs : An open site for researchers to post and share papers Fri : Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Sat : Sleazy sock puppet can’t stop spamming our discussion of compressed sensing and promoting the work of Xiteng Liu Sun : White stripes and dead armadillos
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Introduction: Mon: Preregistration: what’s in it for you? Tues: What if I were to stop publishing in journals? Wed: Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models Thurs: An Economist’s Guide to Visualizing Data Fri: The maximal information coefficient Sat: Problematic interpretations of confidence intervals Sun: The more you look, the more you find
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same-blog 1 0.89363146 2331 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-12-On deck this week
Introduction: Mon: “The results (not shown) . . .” Tues: Personally, I’d rather go with Teragram Wed: How much can we learn about individual-level causal claims from state-level correlations? Thurs: Bill Easterly vs. Jeff Sachs: What percentage of the recipients didn’t use the free malaria bed nets in Zambia? Fri: Models with constraints Sat: Forum in Ecology on p-values and model selection Sun: Never back down: The culture of poverty and the culture of journalism
2 0.84025383 1935 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-12-“A tangle of unexamined emotional impulses and illogical responses”
Introduction: Tyler Cowen posts the following note from a taxi driver: I learned very early on to never drive someone to their destination if it was a route they drove themselves, say to their home from the airport . . . Everyone prides themselves on driving the shortest route but they rarely do. . . . When I first started driving a cab, I drove the shortest route—always, I’m ethical—but people would accuse me of taking the long way because it wasn’t the way they drove . . . In the end, experts they consider themselves to be, people are a tangle of unexamined emotional impulses and illogical responses. I take a lot of rides to and from the airport, and I can assure you that a lot of taxi drivers don’t know the good routes. Once I had to start screaming from the back seat to stop the guy from getting on the BQE. I don’t “pride myself” on knowing a good route home from the airport, but I prefer the good route. I’m guessing that the taxi driver quoted above is subject to the same illusions
3 0.83485723 737 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-30-Memorial Day question
Introduction: When I was a kid they shifted a bunch of holidays to Monday. (Not all the holidays: they kept New Year’s, Christmas, and July 4th on fixed dates, they kept Thanksgiving on a Thursday, and for some reason the shifted Veterans Day didn’t stick. But they successfully moved Washington’s Birthday, Memorial Day, and Columbus Day. It makes sense to give people a 3-day weekend. I have no idea why they picked Monday rather than Friday, but either one would do, I suppose. My question is: if this Monday holiday thing was such a good idea, why did it take them so long to do it?
4 0.79475081 741 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-02-At least he didn’t prove a false theorem
Introduction: Siobhan Mattison pointed me to this . I’m just disappointed they didn’t use my Fenimore Cooper line. Although I guess that reference wouldn’t resonate much outside the U.S. P.S. My guess was correct See comments below. Actually, the reference probably wouldn’t resonate so well among under-50-year-olds in the U.S. either. Sort of like the Jaycees story.
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Introduction: See paragraphs 13-15 of this article by Dan Balz.
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