andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1113 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Following up on our discussion of professionalism (in which Jonathan Chait argued that “the definition of a professional career track” requires pay differentials and the chance to get fired, and I argued the opposite, that a lot of people go into professional careers specifically because of the job security), Austin Frakt pointed me to this description of professionalism from Go master Toshiro Kageyama. This in turn reminds me of a remark of Bill James when he explained lack of surprise that clutch hitting does not show up in the data. He wrote that the underlying idea of clutch hitting is that a player will play particuarly well in an important situation where the game or the season is on the line. But, James pointed out, these guys are pros, and the true sign of a professional is that he can always stay concentrated. This argument applies particuarly for hitting, maybe less so for pitching, where a pitcher can’t necessarily throw his hardest for 100 pitches in a game.
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1 This in turn reminds me of a remark of Bill James when he explained lack of surprise that clutch hitting does not show up in the data. [sent-2, score-1.126]
2 He wrote that the underlying idea of clutch hitting is that a player will play particuarly well in an important situation where the game or the season is on the line. [sent-3, score-1.582]
3 But, James pointed out, these guys are pros, and the true sign of a professional is that he can always stay concentrated. [sent-4, score-0.617]
4 This argument applies particuarly for hitting, maybe less so for pitching, where a pitcher can’t necessarily throw his hardest for 100 pitches in a game. [sent-5, score-0.981]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 1113 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-11-Toshiro Kageyama on professionalism
Introduction: Following up on our discussion of professionalism (in which Jonathan Chait argued that “the definition of a professional career track” requires pay differentials and the chance to get fired, and I argued the opposite, that a lot of people go into professional careers specifically because of the job security), Austin Frakt pointed me to this description of professionalism from Go master Toshiro Kageyama. This in turn reminds me of a remark of Bill James when he explained lack of surprise that clutch hitting does not show up in the data. He wrote that the underlying idea of clutch hitting is that a player will play particuarly well in an important situation where the game or the season is on the line. But, James pointed out, these guys are pros, and the true sign of a professional is that he can always stay concentrated. This argument applies particuarly for hitting, maybe less so for pitching, where a pitcher can’t necessarily throw his hardest for 100 pitches in a game.
2 0.28393313 173 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-31-Editing and clutch hitting
Introduction: Regarding editing : The only serious editing I’ve ever received has been for my New York Times op-eds and my article in the American Scientist. My book editors have all been nice people, and they’ve helped me with many things (including suggestions of what my priorities should be in communicating with readers)–they’ve been great–but they’ve not given (nor have I expected or asked for) serious editing. Maybe I should’ve asked for it, I don’t know. I’ve had time-wasting experiences with copy editors and a particularly annoying experience with a production editor (who was so difficult that my coauthors and I actually contacted our agent and a lawyer about the possibility of getting out of our contract), but that’s another story. Regarding clutch hitting , Bill James once noted that it’s great when a Bucky Dent hits an unexpected home run, but what’s really special is being able to get the big hit when it’s expected of you. The best players can do their best every time they come t
3 0.26162669 874 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-27-What’s “the definition of a professional career”?
Introduction: Last month I expressed disagreement the following statement from New Republic columnist Jonathan Chait, who wrote: The old liberal slogan always demanded that we “treat teachers like professionals.” That entails some measure of accountability—we can debate the metrics—which allows both that very bad teachers be fired and that very good ones can obtain greater pay and recognition. That’s the definition of a professional career track . . . I was surprised to find the option of being fired as part of the definition of professionalism, and I conjectured that journalists, who currently have little job security could feel resentful toward teachers and other workers who have the expectation of jobs for life. (As Mark Palko notes , “we’re talking about reneging on assurances of job security that were contractual agreed upon and came after a period of proven performance.”) In an update ( link from Palko), Chait writes : Being a professional, to most people, means having the o
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Introduction: Robert Bell points me to this blog by Austin Frakt explaining problems in interpreting regressions that control for intermediate outcomes. As Robert notes, we discuss these issues in chapters 9 and 10. But Frakt’s example is a good one.
5 0.13121967 942 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-04-45% hitting, 25% fielding, 25% pitching, and 100% not telling us how they did it
Introduction: A University of Delaware press release reports : This month, the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports will feature the article “An Estimate of How Hitting, Pitching, Fielding, and Base-stealing Impact Team Winning Percentages in Baseball.” In it, University of Delaware Prof. Charles Pavitt of the Department of Communication defines the perfect “formula” for Major League Baseball (MLB) teams to use to build the ultimate winning team. Pavitt found hitting accounts for more than 45 percent of teams’ winning records, fielding for 25 percent and pitching for 25 percent. And that the impact of stolen bases is greatly overestimated. He crunched hitting, pitching, fielding and base-stealing records for every MLB team over a 48-year period from 1951-1998 with a method no other researcher has used in this area. In statistical parlance, he used a conceptual decomposition of offense and defense into its component parts and then analyzed recombinations of the parts in intuitively mea
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same-blog 1 0.97721279 1113 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-11-Toshiro Kageyama on professionalism
Introduction: Following up on our discussion of professionalism (in which Jonathan Chait argued that “the definition of a professional career track” requires pay differentials and the chance to get fired, and I argued the opposite, that a lot of people go into professional careers specifically because of the job security), Austin Frakt pointed me to this description of professionalism from Go master Toshiro Kageyama. This in turn reminds me of a remark of Bill James when he explained lack of surprise that clutch hitting does not show up in the data. He wrote that the underlying idea of clutch hitting is that a player will play particuarly well in an important situation where the game or the season is on the line. But, James pointed out, these guys are pros, and the true sign of a professional is that he can always stay concentrated. This argument applies particuarly for hitting, maybe less so for pitching, where a pitcher can’t necessarily throw his hardest for 100 pitches in a game.
Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Probably not blog-worthy/blog-appropriate, but have you heard Bill James discussing the Sandusky & Paterno stuff? I think you discussed once his stance on the Dowd Report, and this seems to be from the same part of his personality—which goes beyond contrarian . . . I have in fact blogged on James ( many times ) and on Paterno , so yes I think this is blogworthy. On the other hand, most readers of this blog probably don’t care about baseball, football, or William James, so I’ll put the rest below the fold. What is legendary baseball statistician Bill James doing, defending the crime-coverups of legendary coach Joe Paterno? As I wrote in my earlier blog on Paterno, it isn’t always easy to do the right thing, and I have no idea if I’d behave any better if I were in such a situation. The characteristics of a good coach do not necessarily provide what it takes to make good decisions off the field. In this sense even more of the blame should go
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Introduction: Daniel Drezner takes on Bill James.
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Introduction: I was recently rereading and enjoying Bill James’s Historical Baseball Abstract (the second edition, from 2001). But even the Master is not perfect. Here he is, in the context of the all-time 20th-greatest shortstop (in his reckoning): Are athletes special people? In general, no, but occasionally, yes. Johnny Pesky at 75 was trim, youthful, optimistic, and practically exploding with energy. You rarely meet anybody like that who isn’t an ex-athlete–and that makes athletes seem special. [italics in the original] Hey, I’ve met 75-year-olds like that–and none of them are ex-athletes! That’s probably because I don’t know a lot of ex-athletes. But Bill James . . . he knows a lot of athletes. He went to the bathroom with Tim Raines once! The most I can say is that I saw Rickey Henderson steal a couple bases when he was playing against the Orioles once. Cognitive psychologists talk about the base-rate fallacy , which is the mistake of estimating probabilities without accou
5 0.72337008 942 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-04-45% hitting, 25% fielding, 25% pitching, and 100% not telling us how they did it
Introduction: A University of Delaware press release reports : This month, the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports will feature the article “An Estimate of How Hitting, Pitching, Fielding, and Base-stealing Impact Team Winning Percentages in Baseball.” In it, University of Delaware Prof. Charles Pavitt of the Department of Communication defines the perfect “formula” for Major League Baseball (MLB) teams to use to build the ultimate winning team. Pavitt found hitting accounts for more than 45 percent of teams’ winning records, fielding for 25 percent and pitching for 25 percent. And that the impact of stolen bases is greatly overestimated. He crunched hitting, pitching, fielding and base-stealing records for every MLB team over a 48-year period from 1951-1998 with a method no other researcher has used in this area. In statistical parlance, he used a conceptual decomposition of offense and defense into its component parts and then analyzed recombinations of the parts in intuitively mea
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same-blog 1 0.92042464 1113 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-11-Toshiro Kageyama on professionalism
Introduction: Following up on our discussion of professionalism (in which Jonathan Chait argued that “the definition of a professional career track” requires pay differentials and the chance to get fired, and I argued the opposite, that a lot of people go into professional careers specifically because of the job security), Austin Frakt pointed me to this description of professionalism from Go master Toshiro Kageyama. This in turn reminds me of a remark of Bill James when he explained lack of surprise that clutch hitting does not show up in the data. He wrote that the underlying idea of clutch hitting is that a player will play particuarly well in an important situation where the game or the season is on the line. But, James pointed out, these guys are pros, and the true sign of a professional is that he can always stay concentrated. This argument applies particuarly for hitting, maybe less so for pitching, where a pitcher can’t necessarily throw his hardest for 100 pitches in a game.
2 0.81362504 1935 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-12-“A tangle of unexamined emotional impulses and illogical responses”
Introduction: Tyler Cowen posts the following note from a taxi driver: I learned very early on to never drive someone to their destination if it was a route they drove themselves, say to their home from the airport . . . Everyone prides themselves on driving the shortest route but they rarely do. . . . When I first started driving a cab, I drove the shortest route—always, I’m ethical—but people would accuse me of taking the long way because it wasn’t the way they drove . . . In the end, experts they consider themselves to be, people are a tangle of unexamined emotional impulses and illogical responses. I take a lot of rides to and from the airport, and I can assure you that a lot of taxi drivers don’t know the good routes. Once I had to start screaming from the back seat to stop the guy from getting on the BQE. I don’t “pride myself” on knowing a good route home from the airport, but I prefer the good route. I’m guessing that the taxi driver quoted above is subject to the same illusions
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Introduction: I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned .
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Introduction: See paragraphs 13-15 of this article by Dan Balz.
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