andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1907 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Bill Harris writes: Speaking of strange graphics, http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-part-2.html shows an example of text (gnuplot’s dumb terminal) graphics of data from MCSim (code and other material available from http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-table-of.html). At another extreme, slide 20 of https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid;=sites&srcid;=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx3c2hhcnJpczEzfGd4OjZkNGFjZWZhOTAyYTFkMDg shows a stereogram of more MCSim output (I was a bit more naive back then). I included the stereogram as a bit of humor just to show what could be done with J graphics. Surprisingly, one person in the audience focused intently on that slide and, after a moment, said “Got it!” We spoke afterwards, and it turned out that he was on the board or at least a volunteer at the Portland (OR) 3D Center of Art & Photography (http://www.3dcenterusa.com/index.html). Regarding mcsim, the
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1 html shows an example of text (gnuplot’s dumb terminal) graphics of data from MCSim (code and other material available from http://makingsense. [sent-4, score-0.406]
2 At another extreme, slide 20 of https://docs. [sent-8, score-0.173]
3 a=v&pid;=sites&srcid;=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx3c2hhcnJpczEzfGd4OjZkNGFjZWZhOTAyYTFkMDg shows a stereogram of more MCSim output (I was a bit more naive back then). [sent-11, score-0.509]
4 I included the stereogram as a bit of humor just to show what could be done with J graphics. [sent-12, score-0.331]
5 Surprisingly, one person in the audience focused intently on that slide and, after a moment, said “Got it! [sent-13, score-0.173]
6 ” We spoke afterwards, and it turned out that he was on the board or at least a volunteer at the Portland (OR) 3D Center of Art & Photography (http://www. [sent-14, score-0.156]
7 It was missing the ability to do tabular nonlinearities, and so I wrote Frederic. [sent-19, score-0.252]
8 He quickly added inline code ability, which lets me use the GSL and its interpolation routines. [sent-20, score-0.522]
9 I’m looking forward to your adding that capability to Stan soon (especially since I no longer know how to install MCSim on Windows! [sent-21, score-0.182]
10 Incidentally, the quick reference card mentioned at that link is now available on the MCSim home page and shows how I use the inline code feature. [sent-23, score-0.646]
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same-blog 1 0.99999982 1907 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-20-Amazing retro gnu graphics!
Introduction: Bill Harris writes: Speaking of strange graphics, http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-part-2.html shows an example of text (gnuplot’s dumb terminal) graphics of data from MCSim (code and other material available from http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-table-of.html). At another extreme, slide 20 of https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid;=sites&srcid;=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx3c2hhcnJpczEzfGd4OjZkNGFjZWZhOTAyYTFkMDg shows a stereogram of more MCSim output (I was a bit more naive back then). I included the stereogram as a bit of humor just to show what could be done with J graphics. Surprisingly, one person in the audience focused intently on that slide and, after a moment, said “Got it!” We spoke afterwards, and it turned out that he was on the board or at least a volunteer at the Portland (OR) 3D Center of Art & Photography (http://www.3dcenterusa.com/index.html). Regarding mcsim, the
2 0.16717355 1141 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-28-Using predator-prey models on the Canadian lynx series
Introduction: The “Canadian lynx data” is one of the famous examples used in time series analysis. And the usual models that are fit to these data in the statistics time-series literature, don’t work well. Cavan Reilly and Angelique Zeringue write : Reilly and Zeringue then present their analysis. Their simple little predator-prey model with a weakly informative prior way outperforms the standard big-ass autoregression models. Check this out: Or, to put it into numbers, when they fit their model to the first 80 years and predict to the next 34, their root mean square out-of-sample error is 1480 (see scale of data above). In contrast, the standard model fit to these data (the SETAR model of Tong, 1990) has more than twice as many parameters but gets a worse-performing root mean square error of 1600, even when that model is fit to the entire dataset. (If you fit the SETAR or any similar autoregressive model to the first 80 years and use it to predict the next 34, the predictions
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Introduction: Bill Harris writes with two interesting questions involving time series analysis: I used to work in an organization that designed and made signal processing equipment. Antialiasing and windowing of time series was a big deal in performing analysis accurately. Now I’m in a place where I have to make inferences about human-scaled time series. It has dawned on me that the two are related. I’m not sure we often have data sampled at a rate at least twice the highest frequency present (not just the highest frequency of interest). The only articles I’ve seen about aliasing as applied to social science series are from Hinich or from related works . Box and Jenkins hint at it in section 13.3 of Time Series Analysis, but the analysis seems to be mostly heuristic. Yet I can imagine all sorts of time series subject to similar problems, from analyses of stock prices based on closing prices (mentioned in the latter article) to other economic series measured on a monthly basis to en
4 0.080791906 198 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-11-Multilevel modeling in R on a Mac
Introduction: Peter Goff wrote: I’m using your text, Data Analysis Using Regression & Multilevel/Hierarchical Models as the basis for an independent study class this fall. I am fairly adapt with Stata, however I have no expertise in R (changing this condition is a goal of the independent study!). I’m working to get up and running with the examples from the book, but I’m running into several problems, all apparently stemming from my having a Mac as opposed to a PC. Specifically I cannot load the “arm” library because I cannot install the lme4 library as lme4 is not available for Macs. Yu-Sung replied: Here are steps for you to install lme4: 1. update your x11 code for Mac system (so that you have gcc and g77 complier) 2. download source code for lme4 from the CRAN. 3. install lme4 from the source you just downloaded. I am not a Mac user. I am adapting steps from installing lme4 in a linux OS. But we have colleagues here following the same instructions and make lme4 working on
5 0.077915147 1240 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-02-Blogads update
Introduction: A few months ago I reported on someone who wanted to insert text links into the blog. I asked her how much they would pay and got no answer. Yesterday, though, I received this reply: Hello Andrew, I am sorry for the delay in getting back to you. I’d like to make a proposal for your site. Please refer below. We would like to place a simple text link ad on page http://andrewgelman.com/2011/07/super_sam_fuld/ to link to *** with the key phrase ***. We will incorporate the key phrase into a sentence so it would read well. Rest assured it won’t sound obnoxious or advertorial. We will then process the final text link code as soon as you agree to our proposal. We can offer you $200 for this with the assumption that you will keep the link “live” on that page for 12 months or longer if you prefer. Please get back to us with a quick reply on your thoughts on this and include your Paypal ID for payment process. Hoping for a positive response from you. I wrote back: Hi,
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Introduction: Bill Harris writes: Speaking of strange graphics, http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-part-2.html shows an example of text (gnuplot’s dumb terminal) graphics of data from MCSim (code and other material available from http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-table-of.html). At another extreme, slide 20 of https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid;=sites&srcid;=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx3c2hhcnJpczEzfGd4OjZkNGFjZWZhOTAyYTFkMDg shows a stereogram of more MCSim output (I was a bit more naive back then). I included the stereogram as a bit of humor just to show what could be done with J graphics. Surprisingly, one person in the audience focused intently on that slide and, after a moment, said “Got it!” We spoke afterwards, and it turned out that he was on the board or at least a volunteer at the Portland (OR) 3D Center of Art & Photography (http://www.3dcenterusa.com/index.html). Regarding mcsim, the
2 0.72972918 211 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-17-Deducer update
Introduction: A year ago we blogged about Ian Fellows’s R Gui called Deducer (oops, my bad, I meant to link to this ). Fellows sends in this update: Since version 0.1, I [Fellows] have added: 1. A nice plug-in interface, so that people can extend Deducer’s capability without leaving the comfort of R. (see: http://www.deducer.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php?n=Main.Development ) 2. Several new dialogs. 3. A one-step installer for windows. 4. A plug-in package (DeducerExtras) which extends the scope of analyses covered. 5. A plotting GUI that can create anything from simple histograms to complex custom graphics. Deducer is designed to be a free easy to use alternative to proprietary data analysis software such as SPSS, JMP, and Minitab. It has a menu system to do common data manipulation and analysis tasks, and an excel-like spreadsheet in which to view and edit data frames. The goal of the project is two fold. Provide an intuitive interface so that non-technical users can learn and p
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Introduction: Factual collects data on a variety of topics, organizes them, and allows easy access. If you ever wanted to do a histogram of calorie content in Starbucks coffees or plot warnings with a live feed of earthquake data – your life should be a bit simpler now. Also see DataMarket , InfoChimps , and a few older links in The Future of Data Analysis . If you access the data through the API, you can build live visualizations like this: Of course, you could just go to the source. Roy Mendelssohn writes (with minor edits): Since you are both interested in data access, please look at our service ERDDAP: http://coastwatch.pfel.noaa.gov/erddap/index.html http://upwell.pfeg.noaa.gov/erddap/index.html Please do not be fooled by the web pages. Everything is a service (including search and graphics) and the URL completely defines the request, and response formats are easily changed just by changing the “file extension”. The web pages are just html and javascript that u
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Introduction: Richard Van Noorden reports in Nature that 95% of the authors submitting to the Nature Publishing Group choose more restrictive open-source licenses, CC-BY-NC-SA or CC-BY-NC-ND, even when given the opportunity to use a much more open license, CC-BY. (I include their data below.) How open should papers be? Should authors own their work or should universities? What if they’re paid for by a government research grant? For instance, should NIH go further in requiring openness than it already has? Personally, I don’t mind publishers trying to make a buck off my papers. But I don’t want to write something and then hand them the copyright, because then they’ll try to restrict the distribution. Creative Commons Licenses Here’s the license cheat sheet, straight from Creative Commons : CC-BY : This license lets others distribute, remix, tweak, and build upon your work, even commercially, as long as they credit you for the original creation. This is the most accommodating of
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Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Here’s something that may be of interest and useful to your readers, and which I [Tassone] am just now checking out myself. It links R and the Google Visualization API/Google Chart Tools to make Motion Charts (as used in the well known Hans Rosling TED talk) easier to create directly in R. The website is here , and here ‘s a blog about how to use it, including some R code that actually works (if the user has all the requisite libraries, of course) in your own browser.
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Introduction: Bill Harris writes: Speaking of strange graphics, http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-part-2.html shows an example of text (gnuplot’s dumb terminal) graphics of data from MCSim (code and other material available from http://makingsense.facilitatedsystems.com/2007/03/making-musical-sense-by-email-table-of.html). At another extreme, slide 20 of https://docs.google.com/viewer?a=v&pid;=sites&srcid;=ZGVmYXVsdGRvbWFpbnx3c2hhcnJpczEzfGd4OjZkNGFjZWZhOTAyYTFkMDg shows a stereogram of more MCSim output (I was a bit more naive back then). I included the stereogram as a bit of humor just to show what could be done with J graphics. Surprisingly, one person in the audience focused intently on that slide and, after a moment, said “Got it!” We spoke afterwards, and it turned out that he was on the board or at least a volunteer at the Portland (OR) 3D Center of Art & Photography (http://www.3dcenterusa.com/index.html). Regarding mcsim, the
2 0.85967708 268 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-10-Fighting Migraine with Multilevel Modeling
Introduction: Hal Pashler writes: Ed Vul and I are working on something that, although less exciting than the struggle against voodoo correlations in fMRI :-) might interest you and your readers. The background is this: we have been struck for a long time by how many people get frustrated and confused trying to figure out whether something they are doing/eating/etc is triggering something bad, whether it be migraine headaches, children’s tantrums, arthritis pains, or whatever. It seems crazy to try to do such computations in one’s head–and the psychological literature suggests people must be pretty bad at this kind of thing–but what’s the alternative? We are trying to develop one alternative approach–starting with migraine as a pilot project. We created a website that migraine sufferers can sign up for. The users select a list of factors that they think might be triggering their headaches (eg drinking red wine, eating stinky cheese, etc.–the website suggests a big list of candidates drawn
3 0.85806167 1789 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-05-Elites have alcohol problems too!
Introduction: Speaking of Tyler Cowen, I’m puzzled by this paragraph of his: Guns, like alcohol, have many legitimate uses, and they are enjoyed by many people in a responsible manner. In both cases, there is an elite which has absolutely no problems handling the institution in question, but still there is the question of whether the nation really can have such bifurcated social norms, namely one set of standards for the elite and another set for everybody else. I don’t know anything about guns so I’ll set that part aside. My bafflement is with the claim that “there is an elite which has absolutely no problem handling [alcohol].” Is he kidding? Unless Cowen is circularly defining “an elite” as the subset of elites who don’t have an alcohol problem, I don’t buy this claim. And I actually think it’s a serious problem, that various “elites” are so sure that they have “absolutely no problem” that they do dangerous, dangerous things. Consider the notorious incident when Dick Cheney shot a
4 0.85460556 500 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-03-Bribing statistics
Introduction: I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned .
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Introduction: In her essay on Margaret Mitchell and Gone With the Wind, Claudia Roth Pierpoint writes: The much remarked “readability” of the book must have played a part in this smooth passage from the page to the screen, since “readability” has to do not only with freedom from obscurity but, paradoxically, with freedom from the actual sensation of reading [emphasis added]—of the tug and traction of words as they move thoughts into place in the mind. Requiring, in fact, the least reading, the most “readable” book allows its characters to slip easily through nets of words and into other forms. Popular art has been well defined by just this effortless movement from medium to medium, which is carried out, as Leslie Fiedler observed in relation to Uncle Tom’s Cabin, “without loss of intensity or alteration of meaning.” Isabel Archer rises from the page only in the hanging garments of Henry James’s prose, but Scarlett O’Hara is a free woman. Well put. I wish Pierpoint would come out with ano
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