andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-611 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Hey, here’s a book I’m not planning to read any time soon! As Bill James wrote, the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,” it’s bad statistics. (I wouldn’t have bothered to bring this one up, but I noticed it on one of our sister blogs.)
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same-blog 1 1.0000001 611 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-14-As the saying goes, when they argue that you’re taking over, that’s when you know you’ve won
Introduction: Hey, here’s a book I’m not planning to read any time soon! As Bill James wrote, the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,” it’s bad statistics. (I wouldn’t have bothered to bring this one up, but I noticed it on one of our sister blogs.)
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Introduction: At the sister blog .
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Introduction: I’ve said it here so often, this time I put it on the sister blog. . . .
Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Probably not blog-worthy/blog-appropriate, but have you heard Bill James discussing the Sandusky & Paterno stuff? I think you discussed once his stance on the Dowd Report, and this seems to be from the same part of his personality—which goes beyond contrarian . . . I have in fact blogged on James ( many times ) and on Paterno , so yes I think this is blogworthy. On the other hand, most readers of this blog probably don’t care about baseball, football, or William James, so I’ll put the rest below the fold. What is legendary baseball statistician Bill James doing, defending the crime-coverups of legendary coach Joe Paterno? As I wrote in my earlier blog on Paterno, it isn’t always easy to do the right thing, and I have no idea if I’d behave any better if I were in such a situation. The characteristics of a good coach do not necessarily provide what it takes to make good decisions off the field. In this sense even more of the blame should go
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Introduction: Ben Lindbergh invited me to write an article for Baseball Prospectus. I first sent him this item on the differences between baseball and politics but he said it was too political for them. I then sent him this review of a book on baseball’s greatest fielders but he said they already had someone slotted to review that book. Then I sent him some reflections on the great Bill James and he published it ! If anybody out there knows Bill James, please send this on to him: I have some questions at the end that I’m curious about. Here’s how it begins: I read my first Bill James book in 1984, took my first statistics class in 1985, and began graduate study in statistics the next year. Besides giving me the opportunity to study with the best applied statistician of the late 20th century (Don Rubin) and the best theoretical statistician of the early 21st (Xiao-Li Meng), going to graduate school at Harvard in 1986 gave me the opportunity to sit in a basement room one evening that
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same-blog 1 0.96233106 611 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-14-As the saying goes, when they argue that you’re taking over, that’s when you know you’ve won
Introduction: Hey, here’s a book I’m not planning to read any time soon! As Bill James wrote, the alternative to good statistics is not “no statistics,” it’s bad statistics. (I wouldn’t have bothered to bring this one up, but I noticed it on one of our sister blogs.)
Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Probably not blog-worthy/blog-appropriate, but have you heard Bill James discussing the Sandusky & Paterno stuff? I think you discussed once his stance on the Dowd Report, and this seems to be from the same part of his personality—which goes beyond contrarian . . . I have in fact blogged on James ( many times ) and on Paterno , so yes I think this is blogworthy. On the other hand, most readers of this blog probably don’t care about baseball, football, or William James, so I’ll put the rest below the fold. What is legendary baseball statistician Bill James doing, defending the crime-coverups of legendary coach Joe Paterno? As I wrote in my earlier blog on Paterno, it isn’t always easy to do the right thing, and I have no idea if I’d behave any better if I were in such a situation. The characteristics of a good coach do not necessarily provide what it takes to make good decisions off the field. In this sense even more of the blame should go
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Introduction: Daniel Drezner takes on Bill James.
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Introduction: Ben Lindbergh invited me to write an article for Baseball Prospectus. I first sent him this item on the differences between baseball and politics but he said it was too political for them. I then sent him this review of a book on baseball’s greatest fielders but he said they already had someone slotted to review that book. Then I sent him some reflections on the great Bill James and he published it ! If anybody out there knows Bill James, please send this on to him: I have some questions at the end that I’m curious about. Here’s how it begins: I read my first Bill James book in 1984, took my first statistics class in 1985, and began graduate study in statistics the next year. Besides giving me the opportunity to study with the best applied statistician of the late 20th century (Don Rubin) and the best theoretical statistician of the early 21st (Xiao-Li Meng), going to graduate school at Harvard in 1986 gave me the opportunity to sit in a basement room one evening that
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Introduction: Recently in the sister blog . Yet another chapter in the continuing saga, Don’t Trust Polynomials. P.S. More here .
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Introduction: Paul Pudaite writes in response to my discussion with Bartels regarding effect sizes and measurement error models: You [Gelman] wrote: “I actually think there will be some (non-Gaussian) models for which, as y gets larger, E(x|y) can actually go back toward zero.” I [Pudaite] encountered this phenomenon some time in the ’90s. See this graph which shows the conditional expectation of X given Z, when Z = X + Y and the probability density functions of X and Y are, respectively, exp(-x^2) and 1/(y^2+1) (times appropriate constants). As the magnitude of Z increases, E[X|Z] shrinks to zero. I wasn’t sure it was worth the effort to try to publish a two paragraph paper. I suspect that this is true whenever the tail of one distribution is ‘sufficiently heavy’ with respect to the tail of the other. Hmm, I suppose there might be enough substance in a paper that attempted to characterize this outcome for, say, unimodal symmetric distributions. Maybe someone can do this? I think i
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Introduction: Bill Harris writes: On pp. 250-251 of BDA second edition, you write about multiple comparisons, and you write about stepwise regression on p. 405. How would you look at stepwise regression analyses in light of the multiple comparisons problem? Is there an issue? My reply: In this case I think the right approach is to keep all the coefs but partially pool them toward 0 (after suitable transformation). But then the challenge is coming up with a general way to construct good prior distributions. I’m still thinking about that one! Yet another approach is to put something together purely nonparametrically as with Bart.
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Introduction: Dan Goldstein asks what I think of this : My reply: It’s hard for me to imagine a compelling reason for anyone to go to London, Ontario–but, hey, I guess there’s all kinds of people in this world! More seriously, I see the appeal of the graph but it’s a bit busy for my taste. Over the years I’ve moved toward small multiples rather than single busy graphs. That’s one reason why I prefer Tufte’s second book to his first book. The Napoleon-in-Russia graph is a bad model, in that inspires people to try to cram lots of variables on a single graph. Dan wrote back: I [Dan] like it as a travel planning graph, it gives you what you want to know (how how will the days be, how cold will the nights be, will it rain) but is a bit easier on the brain than a table of highs and lows. Also makes it easy to see the trend. I agree the 2nd axis doesn’t help.
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Introduction: Mark Palko writes : We’ll define freshwater economics as the theory that economic behavior (and perhaps most non-economic behavior) can be explained using the concepts of rational actors and efficient markets and auteur theory as the idea that most films (particularly great films) represent the artistic vision of a single author (almost always the director) and the best way to approach one of those films is through the body of work of its author. Both of these definitions are oversimplified and a bit unfair but they will get the discussion started. . . . Compared to their nearest neighbors, film criticism and economics (particularly macroeconomics) are both difficult, messy fields. Films are collaborative efforts where individual contributions defy attribution and creative decisions often can’t be distinguished from accidents of filming. Worse yet, most films are the product of large corporations which means that dozens of VPs and executives might have played a role (sometimes
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Introduction: Chris Schmid is a statistician at New England Medical Center who is an expert on evidence-based medicine. I invited him to present an introductory overview lecture on the topic at last year’s Joint Statistical Meetings, and here are his slides . All 123 of them. I don’t know how he expected to go though all of these in an hour. You could teach a semester-long course based on this material. Good stuff, I recommend you all read it.
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