andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1467 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Here . (Background here .) P.S. Just a thought: is it possible that one reason for the effectiveness of relief pitchers is that, by the end of the game, the starting players (that is, the hitters who have been playing all game) are getting tired? I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this.
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2 I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this. [sent-6, score-0.729]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 1467 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-23-The pinch-hitter syndrome again
Introduction: Here . (Background here .) P.S. Just a thought: is it possible that one reason for the effectiveness of relief pitchers is that, by the end of the game, the starting players (that is, the hitters who have been playing all game) are getting tired? I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this.
2 0.14009252 1847 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-08-Of parsing and chess
Introduction: Gary Marcus writes , An algorithm that is good at chess won’t help parsing sentences, and one that parses sentences likely won’t be much help playing chess. That is soooo true. I’m excellent at parsing sentences but I’m not so great at chess. And, worse than that, my chess ability seems to be declining from year to year. Which reminds me: I recently read Frank Brady’s much lauded Endgame , a biography of Bobby Fischer. The first few chapters were great, not just the Cinderella story of his steps to the world championship, but also the background on his childhood and the stories of the games and tournaments that he lost along the way. But after Fischer beats Spassky in 1972, the book just dies. Brady has chapter after chapter on Fisher’s life, his paranoia, his girlfriends, his travels. But, really, after the chess is over, it’s just sad and kind of boring. I’d much rather have had twice as much detail on the first part of the life and then had the post-1972 era compr
3 0.13437843 218 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-20-I think you knew this already
Introduction: I was playing out a chess game from the newspaper and we reminded how the best players use the entire board in their game. In my own games (I’m not very good, I’m guessing my “rating” would be something like 1500?), the action always gets concentrated on one part of the board. Grandmaster games do get focused on particular squares of the board, of course, but, meanwhile, there are implications in other places and the action can suddenly shift.
4 0.11598593 813 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-21-Scrabble!
Introduction: AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. . . . I’m proud (relieved?) to say that I’ve finally finished the first draft of this work for two-player head-to-head games, with a duplication method that ensures that if the game were repeated, each player would receive tiles from the reserve in the same sequence: think of the tiles being laid out in order (but unseen to the players), so that one player draws from the front and the other draws from the back. . . . One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. It turns out to be about half-bag, half-board . . . Some other findings from the simulations: The blank
5 0.10228359 1930 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-09-Symposium Magazine
Introduction: Symposium is a new online magazine subtitled “Where academia meets public life.” You can think of it as a sort of Slate magazine without Mickey Kaus, or as the Atlantic without the stylish writing. Here are the articles in the first issue, which has just been posted: Why Write the History of Capitalism? Louis Hyman A new generation of scholars is rewriting the story of capitalism by shaking off the old assumptions of both the Left and Right. Sorry, Wrong Number Andrew Gelman How do bad numbers get into circulation in our political discourse, and how do they stay there, even after being refuted? Historians and the Problem of Miracles Scott K. Taylor Historians, like most academics, are a secular lot. Is this a bias that prevents a deeper understanding of religious history? The Rebirth of Viewing Pleasure Jill Dolan By taking a fresh look at popular culture, students are breathing new life into feminist theories of a generation ago. Game Theory is Useful, E
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Introduction: Here . (Background here .) P.S. Just a thought: is it possible that one reason for the effectiveness of relief pitchers is that, by the end of the game, the starting players (that is, the hitters who have been playing all game) are getting tired? I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this.
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Introduction: I was playing out a chess game from the newspaper and we reminded how the best players use the entire board in their game. In my own games (I’m not very good, I’m guessing my “rating” would be something like 1500?), the action always gets concentrated on one part of the board. Grandmaster games do get focused on particular squares of the board, of course, but, meanwhile, there are implications in other places and the action can suddenly shift.
3 0.84238952 615 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-16-Chess vs. checkers
Introduction: Mark Palko writes : Chess derives most of its complexity through differentiated pieces; with checkers the complexity comes from the interaction between pieces. The result is a series of elegant graph problems where the viable paths change with each move of your opponent. To draw an analogy with chess, imagine if moving your knight could allow your opponent’s bishop to move like a rook. Add to that the potential for traps and manipulation that come with forced capture and you have one of the most remarkable games of all time. . . . It’s not unusual to hear masters of both chess and checkers (draughts) to admit that they prefer the latter. So why does chess get all the respect? Why do you never see a criminal mastermind or a Bond villain playing in a checkers tournament? Part of the problem is that we learn the game as children so we tend to think of it as a children’s game. We focus on how simple the rules are and miss how much complexity and subtlety you can get out of those ru
4 0.81594366 1638 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-25-Diving chess
Introduction: Knowing of my interest in Turing run-around-the-house chess , David Lockhart points me to this : Diving Chess is a chess variant, which is played in a swimming pool. Instead of using chess clocks, each player must submerge themselves underwater during their turn, only to resurface when they are ready to make a move. Players must make a move within 5 seconds of resurfacing (they will receive a warning if not, and three warnings will result in a forfeit). Diving Chess was invented by American Chess Master Etan Ilfeld; the very first exhibition game took place between Ilfeld and former British Chess Champion William Hartston at the Thirdspace gym in Soho on August 2nd, 2011. Hartston won the match which lasted almost two hours such that each player was underwater for an entire hour.
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Introduction: AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. . . . I’m proud (relieved?) to say that I’ve finally finished the first draft of this work for two-player head-to-head games, with a duplication method that ensures that if the game were repeated, each player would receive tiles from the reserve in the same sequence: think of the tiles being laid out in order (but unseen to the players), so that one player draws from the front and the other draws from the back. . . . One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. It turns out to be about half-bag, half-board . . . Some other findings from the simulations: The blank
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Introduction: A couple years ago we had an amazing all-star session at the Joint Statistical Meetings. The topic was new approaches to survey weighting (which is a mess , as I’m sure you’ve heard). Xiao-Li Meng recommended shrinking weights by taking them to a fractional power (such as square root) instead of trimming the extremes. Rod Little combined design-based and model-based survey inference. Michael Elliott used mixture models for complex survey design. And here’s my introduction to the session.
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Introduction: Here . (Background here .) P.S. Just a thought: is it possible that one reason for the effectiveness of relief pitchers is that, by the end of the game, the starting players (that is, the hitters who have been playing all game) are getting tired? I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this.
3 0.86591613 2314 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-01-Heller, Heller, and Gorfine on univariate and multivariate information measures
Introduction: Malka Gorfine writes: We noticed that the important topic of association measures and tests came up again in your blog, and we have few comments in this regard. It is useful to distinguish between the univariate and multivariate methods. A consistent multivariate method can recognise dependence between two vectors of random variables, while a univariate method can only loop over pairs of components and check for dependency between them. There are very few consistent multivariate methods. To the best of our knowledge there are three practical methods: 1) HSIC by Gretton et al. (http://www.gatsby.ucl.ac.uk/~gretton/papers/GreBouSmoSch05.pdf) 2) dcov by Szekely et al. (http://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aoas/1267453933) 3) A method we introduced in Heller et al (Biometrika, 2013, 503—510, http://biomet.oxfordjournals.org/content/early/2012/12/04/biomet.ass070.full.pdf+html, and an R package, HHG, is available as well http://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/HHG/index.html). A
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Introduction: Robert Neumann writes: in the JEP 24(3), page18, Daron Acemoglu states: Why Development Economics Needs Theory There is no general agreement on how much we should rely on economic theory in motivating empirical work and whether we should try to formulate and estimate “structural parameters.” I (Acemoglu) argue that the answer is largely “yes” because otherwise econometric estimates would lack external validity, in which case they can neither inform us about whether a particular model or theory is a useful approximation to reality, nor would they be useful in providing us guidance on what the effects of similar shocks and policies would be in different circumstances or if implemented in different scales. I therefore define “structural parameters” as those that provide external validity and would thus be useful in testing theories or in policy analysis beyond the specific environment and sample from which they are derived. External validity becomes a particularly challenging t
5 0.83811623 1230 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-26-Further thoughts on nonparametric correlation measures
Introduction: Malka Gorfine, Ruth Heller, and Yair Heller write a comment on the paper of Reshef et al. that we discussed a few months ago. Just to remind you what’s going on here, here’s my quick summary from December: Reshef et al. propose a new nonlinear R-squared-like measure. Unlike R-squared, this new method depends on a tuning parameter that controls the level of discretization, in a “How long is the coast of Britain” sort of way. The dependence on scale is inevitable for such a general method. Just consider: if you sample 1000 points from the unit bivariate normal distribution, (x,y) ~ N(0,I), you’ll be able to fit them perfectly by a 999-degree polynomial fit to the data. So the scale of the fit matters. The clever idea of the paper is that, instead of going for an absolute measure (which, as we’ve seen, will be scale-dependent), they focus on the problem of summarizing the grid of pairwise dependences in a large set of variables. As they put it: “Imagine a data set with hundreds
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