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623 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-21-Baseball’s greatest fielders


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Introduction: Someone just stopped by and dropped off a copy of the book Wizardry: Baseball’s All-time Greatest Fielders Revealed, by Michael Humphreys. I don’t have much to say about the topic–I did see Brooks Robinson play, but I don’t remember any fancy plays. I must have seen Mark Belanger but I don’t really recall. Ozzie Smith was cool but I saw only him on TV. The most impressive thing I ever saw live was Rickey Henderson stealing a base. The best thing about that was that everyone was expecting him to steal the base, and he still was able to do it. But that wasn’t fielding either. Anyway, Humphreys was nice enough to give me a copy of his book, and since I can’t say much (I didn’t have it in me to study the formulas in detail, nor do I know enough to be able to evaluate them), I might as well say what I can say right away. (Note: Humphreys replies to some of these questions in a comment .) 1. Near the beginning, Humphreys says that 10 runs are worth about 1 win. I’ve always b


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Anyway, Humphreys was nice enough to give me a copy of his book, and since I can’t say much (I didn’t have it in me to study the formulas in detail, nor do I know enough to be able to evaluate them), I might as well say what I can say right away. [sent-8, score-0.299]

2 Near the beginning, Humphreys says that 10 runs are worth about 1 win. [sent-11, score-0.217]

3 If a team scores 700 runs in 162 games, then an extra 10 runs is 710, and Bill James’s prediction is Games. [sent-13, score-0.654]

4 Winning 1 extra game gives you an 82-80 record, for a ratio of 82/80=1. [sent-17, score-0.147]

5 As I understand it, Humphreys is proposing two methods to evaluate fielders: - The full approach, given knowledge of where all the balls are hit when a player is in the field. [sent-24, score-0.125]

6 For example, Bill James has his A*B/C formula for evaluating offensive effectiveness. [sent-27, score-0.153]

7 But there’s also on-base percentage and slugging average, both of which give a pretty good sense of what’s going on and serve as a bridge between the basic statistics (1B, 2B, 3B, BB, etc) and the ultimate goal of runs scored. [sent-28, score-0.337]

8 Similarly, I think Humphreys would make many a baseball fan happy if he could give a sense of the meaning of some basic fielding statistics–not just fielding average but also #assists, #double plays, etc. [sent-29, score-0.909]

9 Humphreys makes the case that fielding is more important, as a contribution to winning, than we’ve thought. [sent-34, score-0.406]

10 Are there other aspects of strong (or weak) fielding not captured in the data? [sent-36, score-0.479]

11 For example, suppose you have a team such as the ’80s Cardinals with a fast infield, a fast outfield, and a pitching staff that throws a lot of low pitches leading to ground balls. [sent-37, score-0.319]

12 In this case, the fielders are getting more chances because the manager trusts them enough to get ground-ball pitchers. [sent-39, score-0.427]

13 Conversely, a team with bad fielders perhaps will adjust their pitching accordingly, taking more chances with the BB and HR. [sent-40, score-0.579]

14 Perhaps start with something simple like some graphs of (estimated) offensive ability vs. [sent-50, score-0.138]

15 Then some time series of fielding statistics, both the raw data of putouts, chances, assists, etc. [sent-52, score-0.406]

16 Humphreys talks a lot about different eras of baseball and argues persuasively that players are much better now than in the old days. [sent-59, score-0.403]

17 This motivates some adjustment for the years in which a player was active, just as with statistics for offense and pitching. [sent-60, score-0.2]

18 The one thing I’m worried about in the comparison of players from different eras is that I assume that fielding as a whole has been more important in some periods (e. [sent-61, score-0.707]

19 If you’re fielding in an era where fielding matters more, you can actually save more runs and win more games through fielding. [sent-64, score-1.273]

20 Basically, in comparing fielders in different eras, you have a choice between evaluating what they did or what they could do . [sent-66, score-0.332]


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Introduction: Someone just stopped by and dropped off a copy of the book Wizardry: Baseball’s All-time Greatest Fielders Revealed, by Michael Humphreys. I don’t have much to say about the topic–I did see Brooks Robinson play, but I don’t remember any fancy plays. I must have seen Mark Belanger but I don’t really recall. Ozzie Smith was cool but I saw only him on TV. The most impressive thing I ever saw live was Rickey Henderson stealing a base. The best thing about that was that everyone was expecting him to steal the base, and he still was able to do it. But that wasn’t fielding either. Anyway, Humphreys was nice enough to give me a copy of his book, and since I can’t say much (I didn’t have it in me to study the formulas in detail, nor do I know enough to be able to evaluate them), I might as well say what I can say right away. (Note: Humphreys replies to some of these questions in a comment .) 1. Near the beginning, Humphreys says that 10 runs are worth about 1 win. I’ve always b

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