andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-813 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. . . . I’m proud (relieved?) to say that I’ve finally finished the first draft of this work for two-player head-to-head games, with a duplication method that ensures that if the game were repeated, each player would receive tiles from the reserve in the same sequence: think of the tiles being laid out in order (but unseen to the players), so that one player draws from the front and the other draws from the back. . . . One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. It turns out to be about half-bag, half-board . . . Some other findings from the simulations: The blank
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1 AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. [sent-1, score-0.888]
2 One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. [sent-10, score-1.197]
3 Some other findings from the simulations: The blank is worth about 30 points to a good player, each S about 10. [sent-14, score-0.321]
4 The Q is a burden to whichever player receives it, effectively serving as a 5 point penalty for having to deal with it due to its effect in reducing bingo opportunities, needing either a U or a blank for a chance at a bingo and a 50-point bonus. [sent-15, score-1.998]
5 The X and the Z are each worth about 3-5 extra points to the player who receives them. [sent-17, score-0.795]
6 Their difficulty in playing in bingoes is mitigated by their usefulness in other short words. [sent-18, score-0.226]
7 I [AT] have yet to make any other conclusions about how I think the game should be modified . [sent-19, score-0.281]
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Introduction: AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. . . . I’m proud (relieved?) to say that I’ve finally finished the first draft of this work for two-player head-to-head games, with a duplication method that ensures that if the game were repeated, each player would receive tiles from the reserve in the same sequence: think of the tiles being laid out in order (but unseen to the players), so that one player draws from the front and the other draws from the back. . . . One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. It turns out to be about half-bag, half-board . . . Some other findings from the simulations: The blank
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Introduction: Matt Selove writes: My question is about Bayesian analysis of the linear regression model. It seems to me that in some cases this approach throws out useful information. As an example, imagine you have two basketball players randomly drawn from the pool of NBA players (which provides the prior). You’d like to estimate how many free throws each can make out of 100. You have two pieces of information: - Session 1: Each player shoots 100 shots, and you learn player A’s total minus player B’s total - Session 2: Player A does another session where he shoots 100 shots alone, and you learn his total If we take the regression approach: y_i = number of shots made beta_A = player A’s expected number out of 100 beta_B = player B’s expected number out of 100 x_i = vector of zeros and ones showing which player took shots In the above example, our datapoints are: y_1 (first number reported) = beta_A * 1 + beta_B * (-1) + epsilon_1 y_2 (second number reported) = beta_A * 1 +
3 0.17473102 1473 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-28-Turing chess run update
Introduction: In honor of the Olympics , I got my butt over to the park and played run-around-the-house chess for the first time ever. As was discussed in the comments thread awhile ago , there seem to be three possible ways to play Turing chess: 1. You make your move and run around the house. The other player has to move before you return. Once you sit down to the table, the other player runs around the house. Then you have to move, etc. You lose if you are checkmated or if you fail to move before your opponent returns to his chair. 2. You make your move and run around the house. The other player has to move before you return, but he does not have to wait until you return to start running. He can start running once he’s moved. Then when you get back you have to move before he gets back, but you can start to run once you’ve moved, etc. 3. You make your move and run around the house. The other player takes as long as he wants and makes his move, then he runs. When you return, yo
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Introduction: Theodore Vasiloudis writes: I’d like to bring your attention to this article by Benjamin Morris discussing the value of steals for the NBA. The author argues that a steal should be a highly sought after statistic as it equates to higher chances of victory and is very hard to replace when a player is injured. I would argue that the reason behind the correlations showing this data is the fact that steals are much more rare in an NBA game than any of the other stats examined so their contribution is exaggerated. I looked at Morris’s article and it looks like he’s running a regression of players’ plus-minus statistics on points, rebounds, assists, blocks, steals and turnovers. He writes, “A marginal steal is weighted nine times more heavily when predicting a player’s impact than a marginal point. For example, a player who averages 16 points and two steals per game is predicted (assuming all else is equal) to have a similar impact on his team’s success as one who averages 25 poi
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Introduction: Here . (Background here .) P.S. Just a thought: is it possible that one reason for the effectiveness of relief pitchers is that, by the end of the game, the starting players (that is, the hitters who have been playing all game) are getting tired? I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this.
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Introduction: AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. . . . I’m proud (relieved?) to say that I’ve finally finished the first draft of this work for two-player head-to-head games, with a duplication method that ensures that if the game were repeated, each player would receive tiles from the reserve in the same sequence: think of the tiles being laid out in order (but unseen to the players), so that one player draws from the front and the other draws from the back. . . . One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. It turns out to be about half-bag, half-board . . . Some other findings from the simulations: The blank
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Introduction: I was playing out a chess game from the newspaper and we reminded how the best players use the entire board in their game. In my own games (I’m not very good, I’m guessing my “rating” would be something like 1500?), the action always gets concentrated on one part of the board. Grandmaster games do get focused on particular squares of the board, of course, but, meanwhile, there are implications in other places and the action can suddenly shift.
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Introduction: Knowing of my interest in Turing run-around-the-house chess , David Lockhart points me to this : Diving Chess is a chess variant, which is played in a swimming pool. Instead of using chess clocks, each player must submerge themselves underwater during their turn, only to resurface when they are ready to make a move. Players must make a move within 5 seconds of resurfacing (they will receive a warning if not, and three warnings will result in a forfeit). Diving Chess was invented by American Chess Master Etan Ilfeld; the very first exhibition game took place between Ilfeld and former British Chess Champion William Hartston at the Thirdspace gym in Soho on August 2nd, 2011. Hartston won the match which lasted almost two hours such that each player was underwater for an entire hour.
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Introduction: Here . (Background here .) P.S. Just a thought: is it possible that one reason for the effectiveness of relief pitchers is that, by the end of the game, the starting players (that is, the hitters who have been playing all game) are getting tired? I’m pretty sure that lots of baseball-statistics experts will know the answer to this.
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Introduction: Mark Palko writes : Chess derives most of its complexity through differentiated pieces; with checkers the complexity comes from the interaction between pieces. The result is a series of elegant graph problems where the viable paths change with each move of your opponent. To draw an analogy with chess, imagine if moving your knight could allow your opponent’s bishop to move like a rook. Add to that the potential for traps and manipulation that come with forced capture and you have one of the most remarkable games of all time. . . . It’s not unusual to hear masters of both chess and checkers (draughts) to admit that they prefer the latter. So why does chess get all the respect? Why do you never see a criminal mastermind or a Bond villain playing in a checkers tournament? Part of the problem is that we learn the game as children so we tend to think of it as a children’s game. We focus on how simple the rules are and miss how much complexity and subtlety you can get out of those ru
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Introduction: My talks at Cambridge this Wed and Thurs in the department of Machine Learning . Powerpoints are here and here . Also some videos are here (but no videos of the “Nothing is Linear, Nothing is Additive” talk).
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Introduction: Perhaps because of these discussions , I was pointed toward an article on “Rethinking Darfur” by Marc Gustafson, which was written up in a news story here . From the publicity email: This paper is intended to challenge the conventional wisdom about the causes and levels of violence in Darfur during the conflict there. Gustafson, a Marshall Scholar at Oxford, draws on historical analysis, explores mortality surveys, and dissects six years of American budgetary allocations in Sudan, contending that while the war in Darfur has had horrific results, it has been mischaracterized persistently in terms of the scale and causes of the conflict. Gustafson argues that these mischaracterizations had negative effects on elite and public understanding of the conflict, and consequently had a rather dubious effect on policy choices. I don’t have time to look at this and so offer no comment one way or the other, but I thought it might be of interest to some of you, so I’m posting it her
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Introduction: AT writes : Sitting on my [AT's] to-do list for a while now has been an exploration of Scrabble from an experimental design point of view; how to better design a tournament to make the variance as small as possible while still preserving the appearance of the home game to its players. . . . I’m proud (relieved?) to say that I’ve finally finished the first draft of this work for two-player head-to-head games, with a duplication method that ensures that if the game were repeated, each player would receive tiles from the reserve in the same sequence: think of the tiles being laid out in order (but unseen to the players), so that one player draws from the front and the other draws from the back. . . . One goal of this was to figure out how much of the variance in score comes from the tile order and how much comes from the board, given that a tile order would be expected. It turns out to be about half-bag, half-board . . . Some other findings from the simulations: The blank
4 0.74964273 633 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-28-“The New Tyranny: Carbon Monoxide Detectors?”
Introduction: This story reminds me that, when I was in grad school, the state of Massachusetts instituted a seat-belt law which became a big controversy. A local talk show host made it his pet project to shoot down the law, and he succeeded! There was a ballot initiative and the voters repealed the seat belt law. A few years later the law returned (it was somehow tied in with Federal highway funding, I think, the same way they managed to get all the states to up the drinking age to 21), and, oddly enough, nobody seemed to care the second time around. It’s funny how something can be a big political issue one year and nothing the next. I have no deep insights on the matter, but it’s worth remembering that these sorts of panics are nothing new. Recall E.S. Turner’s classic book, Roads to Ruin. I think there’s a research project in here, to understand what gets an issue to be a big deal and how it is that some controversies just fade away.
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Introduction: Interesting mini-memoir from John Podhoretz about the Upper West Side, in his words, “the most affluent shtetl the world has ever seen.” The only part I can’t quite follow is his offhand remark, “It is an expensive place to live, but then it always was.” I always thought that, before 1985 or so, the Upper West Side wasn’t so upscale. People at Columbia tell all sorts of stories about how things used to be in the bad old days. I have one other comment. Before giving it, let me emphasize that enjoyed reading Podhoretz’s article and, by making the comment below, I’m not trying to shoot Podhoretz down; rather, I’m trying to help out by pointing out a habit in his writing that might be getting in the way of his larger messages. Podhoretz writes the following about slum clearance: Over the course of the next four years, 20 houses on the block would be demolished and replaced with a high school named for Louis Brandeis and a relocated elementary school. Of the 35 brownstones t
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