andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-500 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned .
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1 I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. [sent-1, score-0.983]
2 These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. [sent-2, score-1.394]
3 Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . [sent-3, score-0.294]
4 While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. [sent-4, score-0.148]
5 For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . [sent-5, score-1.085]
6 Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. [sent-6, score-0.946]
7 Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned . [sent-7, score-0.393]
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same-blog 1 0.99999988 500 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-03-Bribing statistics
Introduction: I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned .
2 0.1073391 1101 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-05-What are the standards for reliability in experimental psychology?
Introduction: An experimental psychologist was wondering about the standards in that field for “acceptable reliability” (when looking at inter-rater reliability in coding data). He wondered, for example, if some variation on signal detectability theory might be applied to adjust for inter-rater differences in criteria for saying some code is present. What about Cohen’s kappa? The psychologist wrote: Cohen’s kappa does adjust for “guessing,” but its assumptions are not well motivated, perhaps not any more than adjustments for guessing versus the application of signal detectability theory where that can be applied. But one can’t do a straightforward application of signal detectability theory for reliability in that you don’t know whether the signal is present or not. I think measurement issues are important but I don’t have enough experience in this area to answer the question without knowing more about the problem that this researcher is working on. I’m posting it here because I imagine t
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Introduction: Andrew and I have been discussing how we’re going to define functions in Stan for defining systems of differential equations; see our evolving ode design doc ; comments welcome, of course. About Scope I mentioned to Andrew I would prefer pure lexical, static scoping, as found in languages like C++ and Java. If you’re not familiar with the alternatives, there’s a nice overview in the Wikipedia article on scope . Let me call out a few passages that will help set the context. A fundamental distinction in scoping is what “context” means – whether name resolution depends on the location in the source code (lexical scope, static scope, which depends on the lexical context) or depends on the program state when the name is encountered (dynamic scope, which depends on the execution context or calling context). Lexical resolution can be determined at compile time, and is also known as early binding, while dynamic resolution can in general only be determined at run time, and thus
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Introduction: Good stuff.
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Introduction: By “free energy” I don’t mean perpetual motion machines, cars that run on water and get 200 mpg, or the latest cold-fusion hype. No, I’m referring to the term from physics. The free energy of a system is, roughly, the amount of energy that can be directly extracted from it. For example, a rock at room temperature is just full of energy—not just the energy locked in its nuclei, but basic thermal energy—but at room temperature you can’t extract any of it. To the physicists in the audience: Yes, I realize that free energy has a technical meaning in statistical mechanics and that my above definition is sloppy. Please bear with me. And, to the non-physicists: feel free to head to Wikipedia or a physics textbook for a more careful treatment. I was thinking about free energy the other day when hearing someone on the radio say something about China bailing out the E.U. I did a double-take. Huh? The E.U. is rich, China’s not so rich. How can a middle-income country bail out a
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same-blog 1 0.94091499 500 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-03-Bribing statistics
Introduction: I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned .
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Introduction: Jason Roos sends along this article : On election days many of us see a colorful map of the U.S. where each tiny county has a color on the continuum between red and blue. So far we have not used such data to improve the effectiveness of marketing models. In this study, we show that we should. We demonstrate the usefulness of political data via an interesting application–the demand for movies. Using boxoffice data from 25 counties in the U.S. Midwest (21 quarters between 2000 and 2005) we show that by including political data one can improve out-of-sample predictions significantly. Specifically, we estimate the improvement in forecasts due to the addition of political data to be around $43 million per year for the entire U.S. theatrical market. Furthermore, when it comes to movies we depart from previous work in another way. While previous studies have relied on pre-determined movie genres, we estimate perceived movie attributes in a latent space and formulate viewers’ tastes as
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Introduction: In an article headlined, “Hollywood moves away from middlebrow,” Brooks Barnes writes : As Hollywood plowed into 2010, there was plenty of clinging to the tried and true: humdrum remakes like “The Wolfman” and “The A-Team”; star vehicles like “Killers” with Ashton Kutcher and “The Tourist” with Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp; and shoddy sequels like “Sex and the City 2.” All arrived at theaters with marketing thunder intended to fill multiplexes on opening weekend, no matter the quality of the film. . . . But the audience pushed back. One by one, these expensive yet middle-of-the-road pictures delivered disappointing results or flat-out flopped. Meanwhile, gambles on original concepts paid off. “Inception,” a complicated thriller about dream invaders, racked up more than $825 million in global ticket sales; “The Social Network” has so far delivered $192 million, a stellar result for a highbrow drama. . . . the message that the year sent about quality and originality is real enoug
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Introduction: With all this data floating around, there are some interesting analyses one can do. I came across “The Association of Tree Pollen Concentration Peaks and Allergy Medication Sales in New York City: 2003-2008″ by Perry Sheffield . There they correlate pollen counts with anti-allergy medicine sales – and indeed find that two days after high pollen counts, the medicine sales are the highest. Of course, it would be interesting to play with the data to see *what* tree is actually causing the sales to increase the most. Perhaps this would help the arborists what trees to plant. At the moment they seem to be following a rather sexist approach to tree planting: Ogren says the city could solve the problem by planting only female trees, which don’t produce pollen like male trees do. City arborists shy away from females because many produce messy – or in the case of ginkgos, smelly – fruit that litters sidewalks. In Ogren’s opinion, that’s a mistake. He says the females only pro
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Introduction: A New York Times article reports the opening of a half-mile section of bike path, recently built along the west side of Manhattan at a cost of $16M, or roughly $30 million per mile. That’s about $5700 per linear foot. Kinda sounds like a lot, doesn’t it? Well, $30 million per mile for about one car-lane mile is a lot, but it’s not out of line compared to other urban highway construction costs. The Doyle Drive project in San Francisco — a freeway to replace the current old and deteriorating freeway approach to the Golden Gate Bridge — is currently under way at $1 billion for 1.6 miles…but hey, it will have six lanes each way, so that isn’t so bad, at $50 million per lane-mile. And there are other components to the project, too, not just building the highway (there will also be bike paths, landscaping, on- and off-ramps, and so on). All in all it seems roughly in line with the New York bike lane project. Speaking of the Doyle Drive project, one expense was the cost of movin
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Introduction: Tyler Cowen posts the following note from a taxi driver: I learned very early on to never drive someone to their destination if it was a route they drove themselves, say to their home from the airport . . . Everyone prides themselves on driving the shortest route but they rarely do. . . . When I first started driving a cab, I drove the shortest route—always, I’m ethical—but people would accuse me of taking the long way because it wasn’t the way they drove . . . In the end, experts they consider themselves to be, people are a tangle of unexamined emotional impulses and illogical responses. I take a lot of rides to and from the airport, and I can assure you that a lot of taxi drivers don’t know the good routes. Once I had to start screaming from the back seat to stop the guy from getting on the BQE. I don’t “pride myself” on knowing a good route home from the airport, but I prefer the good route. I’m guessing that the taxi driver quoted above is subject to the same illusions
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Introduction: “ Poker Web Site Cheated Users, U.S. Suit Says “ Shocking. Who’d have thought the developers of an online poker site would cheat??
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Introduction: I Paid a Bribe by Janaagraha, a Bangalore based not-for-profit, harnesses the collective energy of citizens and asks them to report on the nature, number, pattern, types, location, frequency and values of corruption activities. These reports would be used to argue for improving governance systems and procedures, tightening law enforcement and regulation and thereby reduce the scope for corruption. Here’s a presentation of data from the application: Transparency International could make something like this much more widely available around the world . While awareness is good, follow-up is even better. For example, it’s known that New York’s subway signal inspections were being falsified . Signal inspections are pretty serious stuff, as failures lead to disasters , such as the one in Washington. Nothing much happened after: the person responsible (making $163k a year) was merely reassigned .
4 0.86040437 190 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-07-Mister P makes the big jump from the New York Times to the Washington Post
Introduction: See paragraphs 13-15 of this article by Dan Balz.
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Introduction: When I was a kid they shifted a bunch of holidays to Monday. (Not all the holidays: they kept New Year’s, Christmas, and July 4th on fixed dates, they kept Thanksgiving on a Thursday, and for some reason the shifted Veterans Day didn’t stick. But they successfully moved Washington’s Birthday, Memorial Day, and Columbus Day. It makes sense to give people a 3-day weekend. I have no idea why they picked Monday rather than Friday, but either one would do, I suppose. My question is: if this Monday holiday thing was such a good idea, why did it take them so long to do it?
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