andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-768 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.
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same-blog 1 1.0 768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique
Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.
2 0.46276253 689 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-01-Is that what she said?
Introduction: Eric Booth cozies up to this article by Chloe Kiddon and Yuriy Brun (software here ). I think they make their point in a gentle yet forceful manner.
Introduction: Delia Baldassarri and Amir Goldberg write : Americans’ political beliefs present a long observed paradox. Whereas the mainstream political discourse is structured on a clearly defined polarity between conservative and liberal views, in practice, most people exhibit ideologically incoherent belief patterns. This paper challenges the notion that political beliefs are necessarily defined by a singular ideological continuum. It applies a new, network-based method for detecting heterogeneity in collective patterns of opinion, relational class analysis (RCA), to Americans’ political attitudes as captured by the American National Election Studies. By refraining from making a-priori assumptions about how beliefs are interconnected, RCA looks for opinion structures, belief networks, that are not necessarily congruent with received wisdom. It finds that in the twenty years between 1984 and 2004 Americans’ political attitudes were consistently structured by two alternative belief systems: one
4 0.0 2 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-23-Modeling heterogenous treatment effects
Introduction: Don Green and Holger Kern write on one of my favorite topics , treatment interactions (see also here ): We [Green and Kern] present a methodology that largely automates the search for systematic treatment effect heterogeneity in large-scale experiments. We introduce a nonparametric estimator developed in statistical learning, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), to model treatment effects that vary as a function of covariates. BART has several advantages over commonly employed parametric modeling strategies, in particular its ability to automatically detect and model relevant treatment-covariate interactions in a flexible manner. To increase the reliability and credibility of the resulting conditional treatment effect estimates, we suggest the use of a split sample design. The data are randomly divided into two equally-sized parts, with the first part used to explore treatment effect heterogeneity and the second part used to confirm the results. This approach permits a re
5 0.0 3 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Bayes in the news…in a somewhat frustrating way
Introduction: I’m not sure how the New York Times defines a blog versus an article, so perhaps this post should be called “Bayes in the blogs.” Whatever. A recent NY Times article/blog post discusses a classic Bayes’ Theorem application — probability that the patient has cancer, given a “positive” mammogram — and purports to give a solution that is easy for students to understand because it doesn’t require Bayes’ Theorem, which is of course complicated and confusing. You can see my comment (#17) here.
6 0.0 4 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Prolefeed
7 0.0 5 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Ethical and data-integrity problems in a study of mortality in Iraq
8 0.0 6 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Jelte Wicherts lays down the stats on IQ
10 0.0 8 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-Advice to help the rich get richer
12 0.0 10 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Alternatives to regression for social science predictions
13 0.0 11 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Auto-Gladwell, or Can fractals be used to predict human history?
14 0.0 12 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-More on problems with surveys estimating deaths in war zones
15 0.0 13 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-Things I learned from the Mickey Kaus for Senate campaign
16 0.0 14 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-01-Imputing count data
17 0.0 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform
18 0.0 16 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling
19 0.0 17 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-05-Taking philosophical arguments literally
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same-blog 1 1.0 768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique
Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.
2 0.491961 689 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-01-Is that what she said?
Introduction: Eric Booth cozies up to this article by Chloe Kiddon and Yuriy Brun (software here ). I think they make their point in a gentle yet forceful manner.
3 0.34683275 1057 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-14-Hey—I didn’t know that!
Introduction: From Wikipedia (via Jay Livingston ): Newsweek sells only about 40,000 newsstand copies compared with 1.5 million subscriptions. (Both figures are substantially lower than they were a decade ago.) The figures for Time are about double those of Newsweek, but the ratio of newsstand sales to subscriptions is about the same. I guess I’m not surprised that most of the sales are from subscriptions, but I’m surprised the fraction is so close to 100%.
Introduction: Following up on our recent discussion of visually-weighted displays of uncertainty in regression curves, Lucas Leeman sent in the following two graphs: First, the basic spaghetti-style plot showing inferential uncertainty in the E(y|x) curve: Then, a version using even lighter intensities for the lines that go further from the center, to further de-emphasize the edges: P.S. More (including code!) here .
5 0.33727971 1006 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-12-Val’s Number Scroll: Helping kids visualize math
Introduction: This looks cool.
6 0.32817337 1514 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-28-AdviseStat 47% Campaign Ad
7 0.32465529 497 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-02-Hipmunk update
8 0.31803152 573 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-14-Hipmunk < Expedia, again
9 0.30384776 1736 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-24-Rcpp class in Sat 9 Mar in NYC
10 0.29428828 426 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-22-Postdoc opportunity here at Columbia — deadline soon!
11 0.28686973 356 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Ranking on crime rankings
12 0.27806759 354 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak
13 0.27687332 2238 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-09-Hipmunk worked
15 0.2731497 1698 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-30-The spam just gets weirder and weirder
16 0.27194926 971 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-25-Apply now for Earth Institute postdoctoral fellowships at Columbia University
17 0.26897383 1464 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-20-Donald E. Westlake on George W. Bush
18 0.26581076 353 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-The violent crime rate was about 75% higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis in 2009
19 0.26352826 1452 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-09-Visually weighting regression displays
20 0.26313296 74 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Extreme views weakly held”
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same-blog 1 1.0 768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique
Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.
2 0.49995935 473 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Why a bonobo won’t play poker with you
Introduction: Sciencedaily has posted an article titled Apes Unwilling to Gamble When Odds Are Uncertain : The apes readily distinguished between the different probabilities of winning: they gambled a lot when there was a 100 percent chance, less when there was a 50 percent chance, and only rarely when there was no chance In some trials, however, the experimenter didn’t remove a lid from the bowl, so the apes couldn’t assess the likelihood of winning a banana The odds from the covered bowl were identical to those from the risky option: a 50 percent chance of getting the much sought-after banana. But apes of both species were less likely to choose this ambiguous option. Like humans, they showed “ambiguity aversion” — preferring to gamble more when they knew the odds than when they didn’t. Given some of the other differences between chimps and bonobos, Hare and Rosati had expected to find the bonobos to be more averse to ambiguity, but that didn’t turn out to be the case. Thanks to Sta
3 0.40108174 80 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-11-Free online course in multilevel modeling
Introduction: George Leckie points to this free online course from the Centre for Multilevel Modelling (approx 600 pages of materials covering theory and implementation in MLwiN and Stata).
4 0.3853229 881 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-30-Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos, together again
Introduction: Today I was reminded of a riddle from junior high: Q: What do you get when you cross an elephant with peanut butter? A: Peanut butter that never forgets, or an elephant that sticks to the roof of your mouth. The occasion was a link from Tyler Cowen to a new book by Garry Kasparov and . . . Peter Thiel. Kasparov we all know about. I still remember how he pulled out a victory in the last game of his tournament with Karpov. Just amazing: he had to win the game, a draw would not be enough. Both players knew that Kasparov had to win. And he did it. A feat as impressive as Kirk Gibson’s off-the-bench game-winning home run in the 1987 Series. Peter Theil is a more obscure figure. He’s been featured a couple of times on this blog and comes across as your typical overconfident rich dude. It’s an odd combination, sort of like what you might get if Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos were to write a book about how to reform baseball. Cowen writes, “How can I not pre-orde
5 0.37549171 837 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-04-Is it rational to vote?
Introduction: Hear me interviewed on the topic here . P.S. The interview was fine but I don’t agree with everything on the linked website. For example, this bit: Global warming is not the first case of a widespread fear based on incomplete knowledge turned out to be false or at least greatly exaggerated. Global warming has many of the characteristics of a popular delusion, an irrational fear or cause that is embraced by millions of people because, well, it is believed by millions of people! All right, then.
6 0.30631632 942 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-04-45% hitting, 25% fielding, 25% pitching, and 100% not telling us how they did it
7 0.27827314 895 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-08-How to solve the Post Office’s problems?
8 0.25636271 1443 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-04-Bayesian Learning via Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics
10 0.22168252 2049 andrew gelman stats-2013-10-03-On house arrest for p-hacking
11 0.20448899 1516 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-30-Computational problems with glm etc.
12 0.20003463 296 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-26-A simple semigraphic display
13 0.19754006 388 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-01-The placebo effect in pharma
14 0.19220512 1130 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-20-Prior beliefs about locations of decision boundaries
15 0.17451076 1926 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-05-More plain old everyday Bayesianism
16 0.17299397 2185 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-25-Xihong Lin on sparsity and density
17 0.16822889 2253 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-17-On deck this week: Revisitings
18 0.15589973 1264 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-14-Learning from failure
19 0.13782653 476 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-Google’s word count statistics viewer
20 0.13431202 2209 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-13-CmdStan, RStan, PyStan v2.2.0