andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-768 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique


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Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.


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same-blog 1 1.0 768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique

Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.

2 0.46276253 689 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-01-Is that what she said?

Introduction: Eric Booth cozies up to this article by Chloe Kiddon and Yuriy Brun (software here ). I think they make their point in a gentle yet forceful manner.

3 0.0 1 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-22-Political Belief Networks: Socio-cognitive Heterogeneity in American Public Opinion

Introduction: Delia Baldassarri and Amir Goldberg write : Americans’ political beliefs present a long observed paradox. Whereas the mainstream political discourse is structured on a clearly defined polarity between conservative and liberal views, in practice, most people exhibit ideologically incoherent belief patterns. This paper challenges the notion that political beliefs are necessarily defined by a singular ideological continuum. It applies a new, network-based method for detecting heterogeneity in collective patterns of opinion, relational class analysis (RCA), to Americans’ political attitudes as captured by the American National Election Studies. By refraining from making a-priori assumptions about how beliefs are interconnected, RCA looks for opinion structures, belief networks, that are not necessarily congruent with received wisdom. It finds that in the twenty years between 1984 and 2004 Americans’ political attitudes were consistently structured by two alternative belief systems: one

4 0.0 2 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-23-Modeling heterogenous treatment effects

Introduction: Don Green and Holger Kern write on one of my favorite topics , treatment interactions (see also here ): We [Green and Kern] present a methodology that largely automates the search for systematic treatment effect heterogeneity in large-scale experiments. We introduce a nonparametric estimator developed in statistical learning, Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART), to model treatment effects that vary as a function of covariates. BART has several advantages over commonly employed parametric modeling strategies, in particular its ability to automatically detect and model relevant treatment-covariate interactions in a flexible manner. To increase the reliability and credibility of the resulting conditional treatment effect estimates, we suggest the use of a split sample design. The data are randomly divided into two equally-sized parts, with the first part used to explore treatment effect heterogeneity and the second part used to confirm the results. This approach permits a re

5 0.0 3 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Bayes in the news…in a somewhat frustrating way

Introduction: I’m not sure how the New York Times defines a blog versus an article, so perhaps this post should be called “Bayes in the blogs.” Whatever. A recent NY Times article/blog post discusses a classic Bayes’ Theorem application — probability that the patient has cancer, given a “positive” mammogram — and purports to give a solution that is easy for students to understand because it doesn’t require Bayes’ Theorem, which is of course complicated and confusing. You can see my comment (#17) here.

6 0.0 4 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-26-Prolefeed

7 0.0 5 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Ethical and data-integrity problems in a study of mortality in Iraq

8 0.0 6 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Jelte Wicherts lays down the stats on IQ

9 0.0 7 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Should Mister P be allowed-encouraged to reside in counter-factual populations?

10 0.0 8 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-Advice to help the rich get richer

11 0.0 9 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-28-But it all goes to pay for gas, car insurance, and tolls on the turnpike

12 0.0 10 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Alternatives to regression for social science predictions

13 0.0 11 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-29-Auto-Gladwell, or Can fractals be used to predict human history?

14 0.0 12 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-More on problems with surveys estimating deaths in war zones

15 0.0 13 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-Things I learned from the Mickey Kaus for Senate campaign

16 0.0 14 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-01-Imputing count data

17 0.0 15 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-03-Public Opinion on Health Care Reform

18 0.0 16 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-04-Burgess on Kipling

19 0.0 17 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-05-Taking philosophical arguments literally

20 0.0 18 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?


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same-blog 1 1.0 768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique

Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.

2 0.491961 689 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-01-Is that what she said?

Introduction: Eric Booth cozies up to this article by Chloe Kiddon and Yuriy Brun (software here ). I think they make their point in a gentle yet forceful manner.

3 0.34683275 1057 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-14-Hey—I didn’t know that!

Introduction: From Wikipedia (via Jay Livingston ): Newsweek sells only about 40,000 newsstand copies compared with 1.5 million subscriptions. (Both figures are substantially lower than they were a decade ago.) The figures for Time are about double those of Newsweek, but the ratio of newsstand sales to subscriptions is about the same. I guess I’m not surprised that most of the sales are from subscriptions, but I’m surprised the fraction is so close to 100%.

4 0.34039941 1461 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-17-Graphs showing uncertainty using lighter intensities for the lines that go further from the center, to de-emphasize the edges

Introduction: Following up on our recent discussion of visually-weighted displays of uncertainty in regression curves, Lucas Leeman sent in the following two graphs: First, the basic spaghetti-style plot showing inferential uncertainty in the E(y|x) curve: Then, a version using even lighter intensities for the lines that go further from the center, to further de-emphasize the edges: P.S. More (including code!) here .

5 0.33727971 1006 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-12-Val’s Number Scroll: Helping kids visualize math

Introduction: This looks cool.

6 0.32817337 1514 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-28-AdviseStat 47% Campaign Ad

7 0.32465529 497 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-02-Hipmunk update

8 0.31803152 573 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-14-Hipmunk < Expedia, again

9 0.30384776 1736 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-24-Rcpp class in Sat 9 Mar in NYC

10 0.29428828 426 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-22-Postdoc opportunity here at Columbia — deadline soon!

11 0.28686973 356 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-20-Ranking on crime rankings

12 0.27806759 354 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-There’s only one Amtrak

13 0.27687332 2238 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-09-Hipmunk worked

14 0.27395472 1650 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-03-Did Steven Levitt really believe in 2008 that Obama “would be the greatest president in history”?

15 0.2731497 1698 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-30-The spam just gets weirder and weirder

16 0.27194926 971 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-25-Apply now for Earth Institute postdoctoral fellowships at Columbia University

17 0.26897383 1464 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-20-Donald E. Westlake on George W. Bush

18 0.26581076 353 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-19-The violent crime rate was about 75% higher in Detroit than in Minneapolis in 2009

19 0.26352826 1452 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-09-Visually weighting regression displays

20 0.26313296 74 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-08-“Extreme views weakly held”


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same-blog 1 1.0 768 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-15-Faux-antique

Introduction: Isabella, Ava, and Chloe.

2 0.49995935 473 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Why a bonobo won’t play poker with you

Introduction: Sciencedaily has posted an article titled Apes Unwilling to Gamble When Odds Are Uncertain : The apes readily distinguished between the different probabilities of winning: they gambled a lot when there was a 100 percent chance, less when there was a 50 percent chance, and only rarely when there was no chance In some trials, however, the experimenter didn’t remove a lid from the bowl, so the apes couldn’t assess the likelihood of winning a banana The odds from the covered bowl were identical to those from the risky option: a 50 percent chance of getting the much sought-after banana. But apes of both species were less likely to choose this ambiguous option. Like humans, they showed “ambiguity aversion” — preferring to gamble more when they knew the odds than when they didn’t. Given some of the other differences between chimps and bonobos, Hare and Rosati had expected to find the bonobos to be more averse to ambiguity, but that didn’t turn out to be the case. Thanks to Sta

3 0.40108174 80 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-11-Free online course in multilevel modeling

Introduction: George Leckie points to this free online course from the Centre for Multilevel Modelling (approx 600 pages of materials covering theory and implementation in MLwiN and Stata).

4 0.3853229 881 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-30-Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos, together again

Introduction: Today I was reminded of a riddle from junior high: Q: What do you get when you cross an elephant with peanut butter? A: Peanut butter that never forgets, or an elephant that sticks to the roof of your mouth. The occasion was a link from Tyler Cowen to a new book by Garry Kasparov and . . . Peter Thiel. Kasparov we all know about. I still remember how he pulled out a victory in the last game of his tournament with Karpov. Just amazing: he had to win the game, a draw would not be enough. Both players knew that Kasparov had to win. And he did it. A feat as impressive as Kirk Gibson’s off-the-bench game-winning home run in the 1987 Series. Peter Theil is a more obscure figure. He’s been featured a couple of times on this blog and comes across as your typical overconfident rich dude. It’s an odd combination, sort of like what you might get if Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos were to write a book about how to reform baseball. Cowen writes, “How can I not pre-orde

5 0.37549171 837 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-04-Is it rational to vote?

Introduction: Hear me interviewed on the topic here . P.S. The interview was fine but I don’t agree with everything on the linked website. For example, this bit: Global warming is not the first case of a widespread fear based on incomplete knowledge turned out to be false or at least greatly exaggerated. Global warming has many of the characteristics of a popular delusion, an irrational fear or cause that is embraced by millions of people because, well, it is believed by millions of people! All right, then.

6 0.30631632 942 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-04-45% hitting, 25% fielding, 25% pitching, and 100% not telling us how they did it

7 0.27827314 895 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-08-How to solve the Post Office’s problems?

8 0.25636271 1443 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-04-Bayesian Learning via Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics

9 0.2413611 591 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-25-Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences M.A.: Innovative, interdisciplinary social science research program for a data-rich world

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11 0.20448899 1516 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-30-Computational problems with glm etc.

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18 0.15589973 1264 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-14-Learning from failure

19 0.13782653 476 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-19-Google’s word count statistics viewer

20 0.13431202 2209 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-13-CmdStan, RStan, PyStan v2.2.0