andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1581 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: Basbøll writes: In re your recent post : Can you make sense of this ? My reply: This is not the kind of thing that I like at all. But for some reason it doesn’t bother me enough for me to want to mock it. Perhaps because I sense that the people who write this sort of thing have very little power or influence. Then again, a check of Wikipedia reveals that the author of the above article is “currently Professor and Bill Daniels Ethics Fellow, a past endowed Bank of America professor of management at New Mexico State University.” The connection between “Ethics Fellow” and “Bank of America professor of management,” that’s a bit creepy.
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1 Basbøll writes: In re your recent post : Can you make sense of this ? [sent-1, score-0.316]
2 My reply: This is not the kind of thing that I like at all. [sent-2, score-0.222]
3 But for some reason it doesn’t bother me enough for me to want to mock it. [sent-3, score-0.482]
4 Perhaps because I sense that the people who write this sort of thing have very little power or influence. [sent-4, score-0.539]
5 Then again, a check of Wikipedia reveals that the author of the above article is “currently Professor and Bill Daniels Ethics Fellow, a past endowed Bank of America professor of management at New Mexico State University. [sent-5, score-1.311]
6 ” The connection between “Ethics Fellow” and “Bank of America professor of management,” that’s a bit creepy. [sent-6, score-0.483]
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same-blog 1 1.0000001 1581 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-17-Horrible but harmless?
Introduction: Basbøll writes: In re your recent post : Can you make sense of this ? My reply: This is not the kind of thing that I like at all. But for some reason it doesn’t bother me enough for me to want to mock it. Perhaps because I sense that the people who write this sort of thing have very little power or influence. Then again, a check of Wikipedia reveals that the author of the above article is “currently Professor and Bill Daniels Ethics Fellow, a past endowed Bank of America professor of management at New Mexico State University.” The connection between “Ethics Fellow” and “Bank of America professor of management,” that’s a bit creepy.
2 0.13927494 891 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-05-World Bank data now online
Introduction: Wayne Folta writes that the World Bank is opening up some of its data for researchers.
3 0.13041194 1237 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-30-Statisticians: When We Teach, We Don’t Practice What We Preach
Introduction: My new Chance ethics column (cowritten with Eric Loken). Click through and take a look. It’s a short article and I really like it. And here’s more Chance.
4 0.11497681 1099 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-05-Approaching harmonic convergence
Introduction: Check out comment #9 here . All we need is for Steven Levitt, David Runciman, and some Reader in Management somewhere to weigh in and we’ll be all set.
Introduction: Tapen Sinha writes: Living in Mexico, I have been witness to many strange (and beautiful) things. Perhaps the strangest happened during the first outbreak of A(H1N1) in Mexico City. We had our university closed, football (soccer) was played in empty stadiums (or should it be stadia) because the government feared a spread of the virus. The Metro was operating and so were the private/public buses and taxis. Since the university was closed, we took the opportunity to collect data on facemask use in the public transport systems. It was a simple (but potentially deadly!) exercise in first hand statistical data collection that we teach our students (Although I must admit that I did not dare sending my research assistant to collect data – what if she contracted the virus?). I believe it was a unique experiment never to be repeated. The paper appeared in the journal Health Policy. From the abstract: At the height of the influenza epidemic in Mexico City in the spring of 2009, the f
6 0.11154491 1590 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-26-I need a title for my book on ethics and statistics!!
7 0.096316814 1117 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-13-What are the important issues in ethics and statistics? I’m looking for your input!
8 0.094503917 1269 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-19-Believe your models (up to the point that you abandon them)
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10 0.087741017 1238 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-31-Dispute about ethics of data sharing
11 0.081835538 2234 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-05-Plagiarism, Arizona style
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20 0.072254866 1671 andrew gelman stats-2013-01-13-Preregistration of Studies and Mock Reports
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same-blog 1 0.95436466 1581 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-17-Horrible but harmless?
Introduction: Basbøll writes: In re your recent post : Can you make sense of this ? My reply: This is not the kind of thing that I like at all. But for some reason it doesn’t bother me enough for me to want to mock it. Perhaps because I sense that the people who write this sort of thing have very little power or influence. Then again, a check of Wikipedia reveals that the author of the above article is “currently Professor and Bill Daniels Ethics Fellow, a past endowed Bank of America professor of management at New Mexico State University.” The connection between “Ethics Fellow” and “Bank of America professor of management,” that’s a bit creepy.
2 0.66745502 1269 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-19-Believe your models (up to the point that you abandon them)
Introduction: In a discussion of his variant of the write-a-thousand-words-a-day strategy (as he puts it, “a system for the production of academic results in writing”), Thomas Basbøll writes : Believe the claims you are making. That is, confine yourself to making claims you believe. I always emphasize this when I [Basbøll] define knowledge as “justified, true belief”. . . . I think if there is one sure way to undermine your sense of your own genius it is to begin to say things you know to be publishable without being sure they are true. Or even things you know to be “true” but don’t understand well enough to believe. He points out that this is not so easy: In times when there are strong orthodoxies it can sometimes be difficult to know what to believe. Or, rather, it is all too easy to know what to believe (what the “right belief” is). It is therefore difficult to stick to statements of one’s own belief. I sometimes worry that our universities, which are systems of formal education and for
Introduction: I’ve recently started a regular column on ethics, appearing every three months in Chance magazine . My first column, “Open Data and Open Methods,” is here , and my second column, “Statisticians: When we teach, we don’t practice what we preach” (coauthored with Eric Loken) will be appearing in the next issue. Statistical ethics is a wide-open topic, and I’d be very interested in everyone’s thoughts, questions, and stories. I’d like to get beyond generic questions such as, Is it right to do a randomized trial when you think the treatment is probably better than the control?, and I’d also like to avoid the really easy questions such as, Is it ethical to copy Wikipedia entries and then sell the resulting publication for $2800 a year? [Note to people who are sick of hearing about this particular story: I'll consider stopping my blogging on it, the moment that the people involved consider apologizing for their behavior.] Please insert your thoughts, questions, stories, links, et
4 0.6596238 873 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-26-Luck or knowledge?
Introduction: Joan Ginther has won the Texas lottery four times. First, she won $5.4 million, then a decade later, she won $2million, then two years later $3million and in the summer of 2010, she hit a $10million jackpot. The odds of this has been calculated at one in eighteen septillion and luck like this could only come once every quadrillion years. According to Forbes, the residents of Bishop, Texas, seem to believe God was behind it all. The Texas Lottery Commission told Mr Rich that Ms Ginther must have been ‘born under a lucky star’, and that they don’t suspect foul play. Harper’s reporter Nathanial Rich recently wrote an article about Ms Ginther, which calls the the validity of her ‘luck’ into question. First, he points out, Ms Ginther is a former math professor with a PhD from Stanford University specialising in statistics. More at Daily Mail. [Edited Saturday] In comments, C Ryan King points to the original article at Harper’s and Bill Jefferys to Wired .
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Introduction: My econ dept colleague Joseph Stiglitz suggests that financial fraudsters be sent to prison. He points out that the usual penalty–million-dollar fines–just isn’t enough for crimes whose rewards can be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That all makes sense, but why do the options have to be: 1. No punishment 2. A fine with little punishment or deterrent value 3. Prison. What’s the point of putting nonviolent criminals in prison? As I’ve said before , I’d prefer if the government just took all these convicted thieves’ assets along with 95% of their salary for several years, made them do community service (sorting bottles and cans at the local dump, perhaps; a financier should be good at this sort of thing, no?), etc. If restriction of personal freedom is judged be part of the sentence, they could be given some sort of electronic tag that would send a message to the police if you are ever more than 3 miles from your home. And a curfew so you have to stay home bet
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1 0.95462048 1505 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-20-“Joseph Anton”
Introduction: I only read the review , not the book. What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. Rushdie’s new memoir . . . comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations.
same-blog 2 0.89399564 1581 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-17-Horrible but harmless?
Introduction: Basbøll writes: In re your recent post : Can you make sense of this ? My reply: This is not the kind of thing that I like at all. But for some reason it doesn’t bother me enough for me to want to mock it. Perhaps because I sense that the people who write this sort of thing have very little power or influence. Then again, a check of Wikipedia reveals that the author of the above article is “currently Professor and Bill Daniels Ethics Fellow, a past endowed Bank of America professor of management at New Mexico State University.” The connection between “Ethics Fellow” and “Bank of America professor of management,” that’s a bit creepy.
3 0.87204182 149 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Demographics: what variable best predicts a financial crisis?
Introduction: A few weeks ago I wrote about the importance of demographics in political trends . Today I’d like to show you how demographics help predict financial crises. Here are a few examples of countries with major crises. The working-age population in Japan peaked in the 1995 census . The 1995 Financial Crisis in Japan The working-age USA population growth slows down to unprecedented levels in 2008 (see figure below) Financial crisis of 2007-2010 . (Also, notice previous dips in 2001, 1991 and 1981, and consider the list of recessions .) China’s working-age population, age 15 to 64, has grown continuously. The labor pool will peak in 2015 and then decline. There are more charts in Demography and Growth report by the Reserve Bank of Australia: Wikipedia surveys the causes of the financial crisis, such as “liquidity shortfall in the United States banking system caused by the overvaluation of assets”. Oh my! Slightly better than the usu
4 0.87001324 1198 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-05-A cloud with a silver lining
Introduction: For the past few weeks I’ve been in pain much of the time, some sort of spasms in my neck and shoulder. Things are mostly better now, but last night I woke up at 5am and my neck was killing me. On the upside, I’d just been having a dream about multiple imputation and in the dream I had a brilliant idea of how to reconcile conditional and joint model specifications. Amazingly enough, when I awoke, I remembered the idea from the dream, and, even more amazingly, it really was a good idea. And, I was in pain and couldn’t fall back asleep. That was good news because that meant I didn’t forget the idea. I mentioned it to Jingchen in our midday meeting today and he didn’t shoot it down. At this point, I don’t really know what will happen. Sometimes I have a sudden inspiration and is works out just as planned or even better than anticipated ; other times, what seems like a brilliant plan goes nowhere. For this new idea, the next step is the hard work of pushing it through and seei
5 0.84639066 243 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-30-Computer models of the oil spill
Introduction: Chris Wilson points me to this visualizatio n of three physical models of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Cool (and scary) stuff. Wilson writes: One of the major advantages is that the models are 3D and show the plumes and tails beneath the surface. One of the major disadvantages is that they’re still just models.
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15 0.73785847 2034 andrew gelman stats-2013-09-23-My talk Tues 24 Sept at 12h30 at Université de Technologie de Compiègne
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