andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-2096 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: OK, fine . Maybe they could work Stan on to the show next? I thought I could retire once I’d successfully inserted the phrase “multilevel regression and poststratification” into the NYT, but now I want more more more. Maybe a cage match between Stan and Mister P on the Itchy and Scratchy show?
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 2096 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-10-Schiminovich is on The Simpsons
Introduction: OK, fine . Maybe they could work Stan on to the show next? I thought I could retire once I’d successfully inserted the phrase “multilevel regression and poststratification” into the NYT, but now I want more more more. Maybe a cage match between Stan and Mister P on the Itchy and Scratchy show?
Introduction: Elsewhere: 1. They asked me to write about my “favorite election- or campaign-related movie, novel, or TV show” (Salon) 2. The shopping period is over; the time for buying has begun (NYT) 3. If anybody’s gonna be criticizing my tax plan, I want it to be this guy (Monkey Cage) 4. The 4 key qualifications to be a great president; unfortunately George W. Bush satisfies all four, and Ronald Reagan doesn’t match any of them (Monkey Cage) 5. The politics of eyeliner (Monkey Cage)
3 0.20017976 1475 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-30-A Stan is Born
Introduction: Stan 1.0.0 and RStan 1.0.0 It’s official. The Stan Development Team is happy to announce the first stable versions of Stan and RStan. What is (R)Stan? Stan is an open-source package for obtaining Bayesian inference using the No-U-Turn sampler, a variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. It’s sort of like BUGS, but with a different language for expressing models and a different sampler for sampling from their posteriors. RStan is the R interface to Stan. Stan Home Page Stan’s home page is: http://mc-stan.org/ It links everything you need to get started running Stan from the command line, from R, or from C++, including full step-by-step install instructions, a detailed user’s guide and reference manual for the modeling language, and tested ports of most of the BUGS examples. Peruse the Manual If you’d like to learn more, the Stan User’s Guide and Reference Manual is the place to start.
4 0.19068216 2161 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-07-My recent debugging experience
Introduction: OK, so this sort of thing happens sometimes. I was working on a new idea (still working on it; if it ultimately works out—or if it doesn’t—I’ll let you know) and as part of it I was fitting little models in Stan, in a loop. I thought it would make sense to start with linear regression with normal priors and known data variance, because then the exact solution is Gaussian and I can also work with the problem analytically. So I programmed up the algorithm and, no surprise, it didn’t work. I went through my R code, put in print statements here and there, and cleared out bug after bug until at least it stopped crashing. But the algorithm still wasn’t doing what it was supposed to do. So I decided to do something simpler, and just check that the Stan linear regression gave the same answer as the analytic posterior distribution: I ran Stan for tons of iterations, then computed the sample mean and variance of the simulations. It was an example with two coefficients—I’d originally cho
5 0.18922023 1748 andrew gelman stats-2013-03-04-PyStan!
Introduction: Stan is written in C++ and can be run from the command line and from R. We’d like for Python users to be able to run Stan as well. If anyone is interested in doing this, please let us know and we’d be happy to work with you on it. Stan, like Python, is completely free and open-source. P.S. Because Stan is open-source, it of course would also be possible for people to translate Stan into Python, or to take whatever features they like from Stan and incorporate them into a Python package. That’s fine too. But we think it would make sense in addition for users to be able to run Stan directly from Python, in the same way that it can be run from R.
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same-blog 1 0.98471504 2096 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-10-Schiminovich is on The Simpsons
Introduction: OK, fine . Maybe they could work Stan on to the show next? I thought I could retire once I’d successfully inserted the phrase “multilevel regression and poststratification” into the NYT, but now I want more more more. Maybe a cage match between Stan and Mister P on the Itchy and Scratchy show?
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Introduction: Stan is written in C++ and can be run from the command line and from R. We’d like for Python users to be able to run Stan as well. If anyone is interested in doing this, please let us know and we’d be happy to work with you on it. Stan, like Python, is completely free and open-source. P.S. Because Stan is open-source, it of course would also be possible for people to translate Stan into Python, or to take whatever features they like from Stan and incorporate them into a Python package. That’s fine too. But we think it would make sense in addition for users to be able to run Stan directly from Python, in the same way that it can be run from R.
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Introduction: Stan will make a total lifetime profit of $0, so we can’t be sued !
4 0.83070755 2124 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-05-Stan (quietly) passes 512 people on the users list
Introduction: Stan is alive and well. We’re up to 523 people on the users list . [We're sure there are many more than 523 actual users, since it's easy to download and use Stan directly without joining the list.] We’re working on a v2.1.0 release now and we hope to release it in within the next couple of weeks.
5 0.81056225 1475 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-30-A Stan is Born
Introduction: Stan 1.0.0 and RStan 1.0.0 It’s official. The Stan Development Team is happy to announce the first stable versions of Stan and RStan. What is (R)Stan? Stan is an open-source package for obtaining Bayesian inference using the No-U-Turn sampler, a variant of Hamiltonian Monte Carlo. It’s sort of like BUGS, but with a different language for expressing models and a different sampler for sampling from their posteriors. RStan is the R interface to Stan. Stan Home Page Stan’s home page is: http://mc-stan.org/ It links everything you need to get started running Stan from the command line, from R, or from C++, including full step-by-step install instructions, a detailed user’s guide and reference manual for the modeling language, and tested ports of most of the BUGS examples. Peruse the Manual If you’d like to learn more, the Stan User’s Guide and Reference Manual is the place to start.
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same-blog 1 0.93924928 2096 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-10-Schiminovich is on The Simpsons
Introduction: OK, fine . Maybe they could work Stan on to the show next? I thought I could retire once I’d successfully inserted the phrase “multilevel regression and poststratification” into the NYT, but now I want more more more. Maybe a cage match between Stan and Mister P on the Itchy and Scratchy show?
2 0.85283172 643 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-02-So-called Bayesian hypothesis testing is just as bad as regular hypothesis testing
Introduction: Steve Ziliak points me to this article by the always-excellent Carl Bialik, slamming hypothesis tests. I only wish Carl had talked with me before so hastily posting, though! I would’ve argued with some of the things in the article. In particular, he writes: Reese and Brad Carlin . . . suggest that Bayesian statistics are a better alternative, because they tackle the probability that the hypothesis is true head-on, and incorporate prior knowledge about the variables involved. Brad Carlin does great work in theory, methods, and applications, and I like the bit about the prior knowledge (although I might prefer the more general phrase “additional information”), but I hate that quote! My quick response is that the hypothesis of zero effect is almost never true! The problem with the significance testing framework–Bayesian or otherwise–is in the obsession with the possibility of an exact zero effect. The real concern is not with zero, it’s with claiming a positive effect whe
Introduction: Dan Lakeland asks : When are statistical graphics potentially life threatening? When they’re poorly designed, and used to make decisions on potentially life threatening topics, like medical decision making, engineering design, and the like. The American Academy of Pediatrics has dropped the ball on communicating to physicians about infant jaundice. Another message in this post is that bad decisions can compound each other. It’s an interesting story (follow the link above for the details), would be great for a class in decision analysis or statistical communication. I have no idea how to get from A to B here, in the sense of persuading hospitals to do this sort of thing better. I’d guess the first step is to carefully lay out costs and benefits. When doctors and nurses make extra precautions for safety, it could be useful to lay out the ultimate goals and estimate the potential costs and benefits of different approaches.
4 0.85023844 240 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-ARM solutions
Introduction: People sometimes email asking if a solution set is available for the exercises in ARM. The answer, unfortunately, is no. Many years ago, I wrote up 50 solutions for BDA and it was a lot of work–really, it was like writing a small book in itself. The trouble is that, once I started writing them up, I wanted to do it right, to set a good example. That’s a lot more effort than simply scrawling down some quick answers.
5 0.84988874 545 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-30-New innovations in spam
Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email today: Hello Andrew, I’m interested in whether you are accepting guest article submissions for your site Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science? I’m the owner of the recently created nonprofit site OnlineEngineeringDegree.org and am interested in writing / submitting an article for your consideration to be published on your site. Is that something you’d be willing to consider, and if so, what specs in terms of topics or length requirements would you be looking for? Thanks you for your time, and if you have any questions or are interested, I’d appreciate you letting me know. Sincerely, Samantha Rhodes Huh? P.S. My vote for most obnoxious spam remains this one , which does its best to dilute whatever remains of the reputation of Wolfram Research. Or maybe that particular bit of spam was written by a particularly awesome cellular automaton that Wolfram discovered? I guess in the world of big-time software
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