andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-531 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Who are the only major politicians who are viewed more positively than negatively by the American public? (See page 3 of this report .)
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same-blog 1 1.0 531 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-22-Third-party Dream Ticket
Introduction: Who are the only major politicians who are viewed more positively than negatively by the American public? (See page 3 of this report .)
Introduction: See page 179 here for Gowa’s review from 1986. And here’s my version (from 2008).
Introduction: Tyler Cowen hypothesizes a “dogmatism portfolio” or a “quota of dogmatism”: in his words, If you’re very dogmatic in one area, you may be less dogmatic in others. OK, well “may be” is pretty vague. There’s not really anything to disagree with, yet. But then Cowen continues: There’s a lesson here. If you wish to be a more open-minded thinker, adhere to some extreme and perhaps unreasonable fandoms, the more firmly believed the better and the more obscure the area the better. This will help fulfill your dogmatism quota, yet without much skewing your more important beliefs. He seems to be making a testable prediction here, that levels of dogmatism on two randomly chosen issues should be negatively correlated. I guess I should call this “almost testable,” as it still requires an issue-by-issue measure of dogmatism. (Is it dogmatic to believe that there was this guy called Jesus who walked on water . . . or is it dogmatic to say that Jesus didn’t walk on water and
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Introduction: Don’t be so quick to place politicians’ views of “national interests” above the mood of the public More on those pollsters who apparently throw away completed survey responses A theory of the importance of Very Serious People in the Democratic Party Mother–child conversations about pictures and objects: Referring to categories and individuals
5 0.097328804 539 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-26-Lies, Damn Lies…that’s pretty much it.
Introduction: This post is by Phil Price. We’re all used to distortions and misleading statements in political discourse — the use of these methods one thing on which politicians are fairly nonpartisan. But I think it’s rare to see an outright lie, especially about a really major issue. We had a doozy yesterday, when Congresswoman Michelle Bachmann presented a graphic that attributed the 2009 federal budget to the Obama administration. Oddly, most of the other facts and figures she presented were correct, although some of them seem calculatedly misleading. If you’re going to lie about something really big, why not just lie about everything?
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same-blog 1 0.96853435 531 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-22-Third-party Dream Ticket
Introduction: Who are the only major politicians who are viewed more positively than negatively by the American public? (See page 3 of this report .)
Introduction: See page 179 here for Gowa’s review from 1986. And here’s my version (from 2008).
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Introduction: Ido Rosen pointed me to this page by Mike Kamermans.
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Introduction: Jeremy Miles writes: Are you familiar with Miller and Chapman’s (2001) article : Misunderstanding Analysis of Covariance saying that ANCOVA (and therefore, I suppose regression) should not be used when groups differ on a covariate. It has caused a moderate splash in psychology circles. I wondered if you had any thoughts on it. I had not heard of the article so I followed the link . . . ugh! Already on the very first column of the very first page they confuse nonadditivity with nonlinearity. I could probably continue with, “and it gets worse,” but since nobody’s paying me to read this one, I’ll stop reading right there on the first page! I prefer when people point me to good papers to read. . . .
5 0.56640148 1328 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-18-Question 8 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: 8. Which of the following statements accurately characterize the National Election Studies? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The NES began in 1960. (b) Since 1980, the NES has mostly relied on telephone interviews. (c) The NES typically has a sample size of about 1000–2000 people. (d) The NES uses a sampling design that ensures they get respondents from all fifty states and D.C. Solution to question 7 From yesterday : 7. Which of the following statements accurately summarize claims made by Page and Shapiro in The Rational Public and their associated research articles? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) Americans’ attitudes on policy alternatives are highly unstable over time, reflecting a rational response to unstable political conditions. (b) When studying public opinion, question-wording is less important than scholars have traditionally thought. (c) Attitudes about foreign policy change more abruptly than attitudes on domestic issues. (d) The contents of the mass
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Introduction: Who are the only major politicians who are viewed more positively than negatively by the American public? (See page 3 of this report .)
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Introduction: Of Beauty, Sex, and Power: Statistical Challenges in Estimating Small Effects. Tues 26 Apr, 12-1 in the Graham Stuart Lounge, 4th Floor, Encina West.
Introduction: Neil Malhotra writes: I just wanted to alert to this completely misinformed Politico article by Roger Simon, equating sampling theory with “magic.” Normally, I wouldn’t send you this, but I sent him a helpful email and he was a complete jerk about it. Wow—this is really bad. It’s so bad I refuse to link to it. I don’t know who this dude is, but it’s pitiful. Andy Rooney could do better. And I don’t mean Andy Rooney in his prime, I mean Andy Rooney right now. The piece appears to be an attempt at jocularity, but it’s about 10 million times worse than whatever the worst thing is that Dave Barry has ever written. My question to Neil Malhotra is . . . what made you click on this in the first place? P.S. John Sides piles on with some Gallup quotes.
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Introduction: Felipe Osorio made the above video to help people use the General Social Survey and R to answer research questions in social science. Go for it! Meanwhile, Tom Smith reports: The initial release of the General Social Survey (GSS), cumulative file for 1972-2012 is now on our website . Codebooks and copies of questionnaires will be posted shortly. Later additional files including the GSS reinterview panels and additional variables in the cumulative file will be added. P.S. R scripts are here .
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Introduction: Sanjay Kaul wrotes: By statute (“the least burdensome” pathway), the approval standard for devices by the US FDA is lower than for drugs. Before a new drug can be marketed, the sponsor must show “substantial evidence of effectiveness” as based on two or more well-controlled clinical studies (which literally means 2 trials, each with a p value of <0.05, or 1 large trial with a robust p value <0.00125). In contrast, the sponsor of a new device, especially those that are designated as high-risk (Class III) device, need only demonstrate "substantial equivalence" to an FDA-approved device via the 510(k) exemption or a "reasonable assurance of safety and effectiveness", evaluated through a pre-market approval and typically based on a single study. What does “reasonable assurance” or “substantial equivalence” imply to you as a Bayesian? These are obviously qualitative constructs, but if one were to quantify them, how would you go about addressing it? The regulatory definitions for
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