andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1115 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Jonathan Cantor points to this poll estimating rifle-armed QB Tim Tebow as America’s favorite pro athlete: In an ESPN survey of 1,502 Americans age 12 or older, three percent identified Tebow as their favorite professional athlete. Tebow finished in front of Kobe Bryant (2 percent), Aaron Rodgers (1.9 percent), Peyton Manning (1.8 percent), and Tom Brady (1.5 percent). Amusing. What this survey says to me is that there are no super-popular athletes who are active in America today. Which actually sounds about right. No Tiger Woods, no Magic Johnson, Muhammed Ali, John Elway, Pete Rose, Billie Jean King, etc etc. Tebow is an amusing choice, people might as well pick him now while he’s still on top. As a sports celeb, he’s like Bill Lee or the Refrigerator: colorful and a solid pro athlete, but no superstar. When you think about all the colorful superstar athletes of times gone by, it’s perhaps surprising that there’s nobody out there right now to play the role. I supp
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1 Jonathan Cantor points to this poll estimating rifle-armed QB Tim Tebow as America’s favorite pro athlete: In an ESPN survey of 1,502 Americans age 12 or older, three percent identified Tebow as their favorite professional athlete. [sent-1, score-1.225]
2 Tebow finished in front of Kobe Bryant (2 percent), Aaron Rodgers (1. [sent-2, score-0.164]
3 What this survey says to me is that there are no super-popular athletes who are active in America today. [sent-7, score-0.378]
4 Tebow is an amusing choice, people might as well pick him now while he’s still on top. [sent-10, score-0.142]
5 As a sports celeb, he’s like Bill Lee or the Refrigerator: colorful and a solid pro athlete, but no superstar. [sent-11, score-0.586]
6 When you think about all the colorful superstar athletes of times gone by, it’s perhaps surprising that there’s nobody out there right now to play the role. [sent-12, score-0.743]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1115 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-12-Where are the larger-than-life athletes?
Introduction: Jonathan Cantor points to this poll estimating rifle-armed QB Tim Tebow as America’s favorite pro athlete: In an ESPN survey of 1,502 Americans age 12 or older, three percent identified Tebow as their favorite professional athlete. Tebow finished in front of Kobe Bryant (2 percent), Aaron Rodgers (1.9 percent), Peyton Manning (1.8 percent), and Tom Brady (1.5 percent). Amusing. What this survey says to me is that there are no super-popular athletes who are active in America today. Which actually sounds about right. No Tiger Woods, no Magic Johnson, Muhammed Ali, John Elway, Pete Rose, Billie Jean King, etc etc. Tebow is an amusing choice, people might as well pick him now while he’s still on top. As a sports celeb, he’s like Bill Lee or the Refrigerator: colorful and a solid pro athlete, but no superstar. When you think about all the colorful superstar athletes of times gone by, it’s perhaps surprising that there’s nobody out there right now to play the role. I supp
2 0.17669347 1830 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-29-Giving credit where due
Introduction: Gregg Easterbrook may not always be on the ball, but I 100% endorse the last section of his recent column (scroll down to “Absurd Specificity Watch”). Earlier in the column, Easterbrook has a plug for Tim Tebow. I’d forgotten about Tim Tebow.
3 0.1345592 529 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-21-“City Opens Inquiry on Grading Practices at a Top-Scoring Bronx School”
Introduction: Sharon Otterman reports : When report card grades were released in the fall for the city’s 455 high schools, the highest score went to a small school in a down-and-out section of the Bronx . . . A stunning 94 percent of its seniors graduated, more than 30 points above the citywide average. . . . “When I interviewed for the school,” said Sam Buchbinder, a history teacher, “it was made very clear: this is a school that doesn’t believe in anyone failing.” That statement was not just an exhortation to excellence. It was school policy. By order of the principal, codified in the school’s teacher handbook, all teachers should grade their classes in the same way: 30 percent of students should earn a grade in the A range, 40 percent B’s, 25 percent C’s, and no more than 5 percent D’s. As long as they show up, they should not fail. Hey, that sounds like Harvard and Columbia^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H^H various selective northeastern colleges I’ve known. Of course, we^H^H
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Introduction: Catherine Rampell highlights this stunning Gallup Poll result: 6 percent of Americans in households earning over $250,000 a year think their taxes are “too low.” Of that same group, 26 percent said their taxes were “about right,” and a whopping 67 percent said their taxes were “too high.” OK, fine. Most people don’t like taxes. No surprise there. But get this next part: And yet when this same group of high earners was asked whether “upper-income people” paid their fair share in taxes, 30 percent said “upper-income people” paid too little, 30 percent said it was a “fair share,” and 38 percent said it was too much. 30 percent of these upper-income people say that upper-income people pay too little, but only 6 percent say that they personally pay too little. 38% say that upper-income people pay too much, but 67% say they personally pay too much. Rampell attributes this to people’s ignorance about population statistics–these 250K+ families just don’t realize t
5 0.1048328 853 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-14-Preferential admissions for children of elite colleges
Introduction: Jenny Anderson reports on a discussion of the practice of colleges preferential admission of children of alumni: [Richard] Kahlenberg citing research from his book “Affirmative Action for the Rich: Legacy Preferences in College Admissions” made the case that getting into good schools matters — 12 institutions making up less than 1 percent of the U.S. population produced 42 percent of government leaders and 54 percent of corporate leaders. And being a legacy helps improve an applicant’s chances of getting in, with one study finding that being a primary legacy — the son or daughter of an undergraduate alumnus or alumna — increases one’s chance of admission by 45.1 percent. I’d call that 45 percent but I get the basic idea. But then Jeffrey Brenzel of the Yale admissions office replied: “We turn away 80 percent of our legacies, and we feel it every day,” Mr. Brenzel said, adding that he rejected more offspring of the school’s Sterling donors than he accepted this year (
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Introduction: Jonathan Cantor points to this poll estimating rifle-armed QB Tim Tebow as America’s favorite pro athlete: In an ESPN survey of 1,502 Americans age 12 or older, three percent identified Tebow as their favorite professional athlete. Tebow finished in front of Kobe Bryant (2 percent), Aaron Rodgers (1.9 percent), Peyton Manning (1.8 percent), and Tom Brady (1.5 percent). Amusing. What this survey says to me is that there are no super-popular athletes who are active in America today. Which actually sounds about right. No Tiger Woods, no Magic Johnson, Muhammed Ali, John Elway, Pete Rose, Billie Jean King, etc etc. Tebow is an amusing choice, people might as well pick him now while he’s still on top. As a sports celeb, he’s like Bill Lee or the Refrigerator: colorful and a solid pro athlete, but no superstar. When you think about all the colorful superstar athletes of times gone by, it’s perhaps surprising that there’s nobody out there right now to play the role. I supp
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Introduction: I found a $5 bill on the street today.
Introduction: A University of Delaware press release reports : This month, the Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports will feature the article “An Estimate of How Hitting, Pitching, Fielding, and Base-stealing Impact Team Winning Percentages in Baseball.” In it, University of Delaware Prof. Charles Pavitt of the Department of Communication defines the perfect “formula” for Major League Baseball (MLB) teams to use to build the ultimate winning team. Pavitt found hitting accounts for more than 45 percent of teams’ winning records, fielding for 25 percent and pitching for 25 percent. And that the impact of stolen bases is greatly overestimated. He crunched hitting, pitching, fielding and base-stealing records for every MLB team over a 48-year period from 1951-1998 with a method no other researcher has used in this area. In statistical parlance, he used a conceptual decomposition of offense and defense into its component parts and then analyzed recombinations of the parts in intuitively mea
Introduction: Eric Tassone writes: Probably not blog-worthy/blog-appropriate, but have you heard Bill James discussing the Sandusky & Paterno stuff? I think you discussed once his stance on the Dowd Report, and this seems to be from the same part of his personality—which goes beyond contrarian . . . I have in fact blogged on James ( many times ) and on Paterno , so yes I think this is blogworthy. On the other hand, most readers of this blog probably don’t care about baseball, football, or William James, so I’ll put the rest below the fold. What is legendary baseball statistician Bill James doing, defending the crime-coverups of legendary coach Joe Paterno? As I wrote in my earlier blog on Paterno, it isn’t always easy to do the right thing, and I have no idea if I’d behave any better if I were in such a situation. The characteristics of a good coach do not necessarily provide what it takes to make good decisions off the field. In this sense even more of the blame should go
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Introduction: Cassie Murdoch points to a report from a corporate survey: Sixty-two percent of U.S. employees say it’s not likely they or a family member will be diagnosed with a serious illness like cancer, a survey indicates. The Aflac WorkForces Report, a survey of nearly 1,900 benefits decision-makers and more than 6,100 U.S. workers, also indicated 55 percent said they were not very or not at all likely to be diagnosed with a chronic illness, such as heart disease or diabetes. Here are some actual statistics: The American Cancer Society, Cancer Facts & Figures 2012, said 1-in-3 women and 1-in-2 men will be diagnosed with cancer at some point in their lives, and the National Safety Council, Injury Facts 2011 edition, says more than 38.9 million injuries occur in a year requiring medical treatment. The American Heart Association, Heart Disease & Stroke Statistics 2012, said 1-in-6 U.S. deaths were caused by coronary heart disease, Tillman said. And some details on the survey:
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Introduction: Cathy O’Neil organized this visualization project with NYPD stop-and-frisk data. It’s part of the Data Without Borders project. Unfortunately, because of legal restrictions I couldn’t send them the data Jeff, Alex, and I used in our project several years ago.
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Introduction: I checked and somebody went in and screwed up my fixes to the wikipedia page on Bayesian inference. I give up.
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Introduction: Malecki asks: Is this the worst infographic ever to appear in NYT? USA Today is not something to aspire to. To connect to some of our recent themes , I agree this is a pretty horrible data display. But it’s not bad as a series of images. Considering the competition to be a cartoon or series of photos, these images aren’t so bad. One issue, I think, is that designers get credit for creativity and originality (unusual color combinations! Histogram bars shaped like mosques!) , which is often the opposite of what we want in a clear graph. It’s Martin Amis vs. George Orwell all over again.
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Introduction: Jonathan Cantor points to this poll estimating rifle-armed QB Tim Tebow as America’s favorite pro athlete: In an ESPN survey of 1,502 Americans age 12 or older, three percent identified Tebow as their favorite professional athlete. Tebow finished in front of Kobe Bryant (2 percent), Aaron Rodgers (1.9 percent), Peyton Manning (1.8 percent), and Tom Brady (1.5 percent). Amusing. What this survey says to me is that there are no super-popular athletes who are active in America today. Which actually sounds about right. No Tiger Woods, no Magic Johnson, Muhammed Ali, John Elway, Pete Rose, Billie Jean King, etc etc. Tebow is an amusing choice, people might as well pick him now while he’s still on top. As a sports celeb, he’s like Bill Lee or the Refrigerator: colorful and a solid pro athlete, but no superstar. When you think about all the colorful superstar athletes of times gone by, it’s perhaps surprising that there’s nobody out there right now to play the role. I supp
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Introduction: Tyler Cowen links a blog by Samuel Arbesman mocking people who are so lazy that they take the elevator from 1 to 2. This reminds me of my own annoyance about a guy who worked in my building and did not take the elevator. (For the full story, go here and search on “elevator.”)
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