andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1437 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: I agree with Casey Mulligan that participants in government surveys should be paid, and I think it should be part of the code of ethics for commercial pollsters to compensate their respondents also. As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. P.S. Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. P.P.S. More rant here .
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2 As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. [sent-2, score-1.069]
3 Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. [sent-5, score-1.258]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 1437 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-Paying survey respondents
Introduction: I agree with Casey Mulligan that participants in government surveys should be paid, and I think it should be part of the code of ethics for commercial pollsters to compensate their respondents also. As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. P.S. Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. P.P.S. More rant here .
Introduction: In the interview we discussed a couple months ago, Steven Levitt said: I [Levitt] voted for Obama [in 2008] because I wanted to tell my grandchildren that I voted for Obama. And I thought that he would be the greatest president in history. This surprised me. I’d assumed Levitt was a McCain supporter! Why? Because in October, 2008, he wrote that he “loved” the claim by conservative University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan that “the current unemployment rate of 6.1 percent is not alarming.” I’d read that at the time, perhaps incorrectly, as Mulligan making an election-season pitch that the economy was doing just fine (Mulligan: “if you are not employed by the financial industry (94 percent of you are not), don’t worry”) hence implicitly an argument for a Republican vote in that year (given the usual rules of retrospective voting that the incumbent party gets punished by a poor economy). And I correspondingly (and, it seems, incorrectly) read Levitt’s endorsement of Mu
3 0.15821542 1371 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Question 28 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: This is it, the last question on the exam! 28. A telephone survey was conducted several years ago, asking people how often they were polled in the past year. I can’t recall the responses, but suppose that 40% of the respondents said they participated in zero surveys in the previous year, 30% said they participated in one survey, 15% said two surveys, 10% said three, and 5% said four. From this it is easy to estimate an average, but there is a worry that this survey will itself overrepresent survey participants and thus overestimate the rate at which the average person is surveyed. Come up with a procedure to use these data to get an improved estimate of the average number of surveys that a randomly-sampled American is polled in a year. Solution to question 27 From yesterday : 27. Which of the following problems were identified with the Burnham et al. survey of Iraq mortality? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The survey used cluster sampling, which is inappropriate for estim
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Introduction: See here for latest rant.
5 0.13716072 627 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-24-How few respondents are reasonable to use when calculating the average by county?
Introduction: Sam Stroope writes: I’m creating county-level averages based on individual-level respondents. My question is, how few respondents are reasonable to use when calculating the average by county? My end model will be a county-level (only) SEM model. My reply: Any number of respondents should work. If you have very few respondents, you should just end up with large standard errors which will propagate through your analysis. P.S. I must have deleted my original reply by accident so I reconstructed something above.
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same-blog 1 0.96734738 1437 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-Paying survey respondents
Introduction: I agree with Casey Mulligan that participants in government surveys should be paid, and I think it should be part of the code of ethics for commercial pollsters to compensate their respondents also. As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. P.S. Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. P.P.S. More rant here .
2 0.75288785 761 andrew gelman stats-2011-06-13-A survey’s not a survey if they don’t tell you how they did it
Introduction: Since we’re on the topic of nonreplicable research . . . see here (link from here ) for a story of a survey that’s so bad that the people who did it won’t say how they did it. I know too many cases where people screwed up in a survey when they were actually trying to get the right answer, for me to trust any report of a survey that doesn’t say what they did. I’m reminded of this survey which may well have been based on a sample of size 6 (again, the people who did it refused to release any description of methodology).
3 0.74834394 1371 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Question 28 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
Introduction: This is it, the last question on the exam! 28. A telephone survey was conducted several years ago, asking people how often they were polled in the past year. I can’t recall the responses, but suppose that 40% of the respondents said they participated in zero surveys in the previous year, 30% said they participated in one survey, 15% said two surveys, 10% said three, and 5% said four. From this it is easy to estimate an average, but there is a worry that this survey will itself overrepresent survey participants and thus overestimate the rate at which the average person is surveyed. Come up with a procedure to use these data to get an improved estimate of the average number of surveys that a randomly-sampled American is polled in a year. Solution to question 27 From yesterday : 27. Which of the following problems were identified with the Burnham et al. survey of Iraq mortality? (Indicate all that apply.) (a) The survey used cluster sampling, which is inappropriate for estim
4 0.73534566 1455 andrew gelman stats-2012-08-12-Probabilistic screening to get an approximate self-weighted sample
Introduction: Sharad had a survey sampling question: We’re trying to use mechanical turk to conduct some surveys, and have quickly discovered that turkers tend to be quite young. We’d really like a representative sample of the U.S., or at the least be able to recruit a diverse enough sample from turk that we can post-stratify to adjust the estimates. The approach we ended up taking is to pay turkers a small amount to answer a couple of screening questions (age & sex), and then probabilistically recruit individuals to complete the full survey (for more money) based on the estimated turk population parameters and our desired target distribution. We use rejection sampling, so the end result is that individuals who are invited to take the full survey look as if they came from a representative sample, at least in terms of age and sex. I’m wondering whether this sort of technique—a two step design in which participants are first screened and then probabilistically selected to mimic a target distributio
5 0.72247648 385 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked
Introduction: Maria Wolters writes: The parenting club Bounty, which distributes their packs through midwives, hospitals, and large UK supermarket and pharmacy chains, commissioned a fun little survey for Halloween from the company OnePoll . Theme: Mothers as tricksters – tricking men into fathering their babies. You can find a full smackdown courtesy of UK-based sex educator and University College London psychologist Petra Boynton here . (One does wonder how a parenting club with such close links to the UK National Health Service thought a survey on this topic was at all appropriate, but that’s another rant.) So far, so awful, but what I [Wolters] thought might grab your attention was the excuse OnePoll offered for their work in their email to Petra. (Petra is very well known in the UK, and so was able to get a statement from the polling company.) Here it is in its full glory, taken from Petra’s post: As the agency which commissioned this research and distributed the resulting new
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1 0.99731427 59 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-Extended Binary Format Support for Mac OS X
Introduction: Rodney Sparapani writes: My Windows buddies have been bugging me about BRUGS and how great it is. Now, running BRUGS on OS X may be possible. Check out this new amazing software by Amit Singh. Personally, I’d go with R2jags , but I thought I’d pass this on in case others are interested.
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Introduction: I have agreed to do a local art exhibition in February. An excuse to think about form, colour and style for plotting almost individual observation likelihoods – while invoking the artists privilege of refusing to give interpretations of their own work. In order to make it possibly less dry I’ll try to use intuitive suggestive captions like in this example TheTyranyof13.pdf thereby side stepping the technical discussions like here RadfordNealBlog Suggested models and data sets (or even submissions) would be most appreciated. I likely be sticking to realism i.e. plots that represent ‘statistical reality’ faithfully. K?
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Introduction: I agree with Casey Mulligan that participants in government surveys should be paid, and I think it should be part of the code of ethics for commercial pollsters to compensate their respondents also. As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. P.S. Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. P.P.S. More rant here .
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Introduction: This is pretty amazing.
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Introduction: Stan will make a total lifetime profit of $0, so we can’t be sued !
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