andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1220 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Daniel Gerlanc asks: I’ve been reading your Regression and Multilevel Modeling book. Do you have a set of example solutions for the problems in the book? Henning Piezunka, Adam Lynton, and others have asked the same question. My universal response: I’m glad you like our book. Unfortunately, we have no solution sets. I made a bunch of solutions for my earlier book but it was so much work that I decided not to do it a second time!
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3 Henning Piezunka, Adam Lynton, and others have asked the same question. [sent-3, score-0.229]
4 My universal response: I’m glad you like our book. [sent-4, score-0.475]
5 I made a bunch of solutions for my earlier book but it was so much work that I decided not to do it a second time! [sent-6, score-1.407]
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Introduction: Daniel Gerlanc asks: I’ve been reading your Regression and Multilevel Modeling book. Do you have a set of example solutions for the problems in the book? Henning Piezunka, Adam Lynton, and others have asked the same question. My universal response: I’m glad you like our book. Unfortunately, we have no solution sets. I made a bunch of solutions for my earlier book but it was so much work that I decided not to do it a second time!
2 0.3389065 896 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-09-My homework success
Introduction: A friend writes to me: You will be amused to know that students in our Bayesian Inference paper at 4th year found solutions to exercises from your book on-line. The amazing thing was that some of them were dumb enough to copy out solutions verbatim. However, I thought you might like to know you have done well in this class! I’m happy to hear this. I worked hard on those solutions!
3 0.27455658 42 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-19-Updated solutions to Bayesian Data Analysis homeworks
Introduction: Here are solutions to about 50 of the exercises from Bayesian Data Analysis. The solutions themselves haven’t been updated; I just cleaned up the file: some change in Latex had resulted in much of the computer code running off the page, so I went in and cleaned up the files. I wrote most of these in 1996, and I like them a lot. I think several of them would’ve made good journal articles, and in retrospect I wish I’d published them as such. Original material that appears first in a book (or, even worse, in homework solutions) can easily be overlooked.
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Introduction: People sometimes email asking if a solution set is available for the exercises in ARM. The answer, unfortunately, is no. Many years ago, I wrote up 50 solutions for BDA and it was a lot of work–really, it was like writing a small book in itself. The trouble is that, once I started writing them up, I wanted to do it right, to set a good example. That’s a lot more effort than simply scrawling down some quick answers.
5 0.1248232 2143 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-22-The kluges of today are the textbook solutions of tomorrow.
Introduction: From a response on the Stan help list: Yes, indeed, I think it would be a good idea to reduce the scale on priors of the form U(0,100) or N(0,100^2). This won’t solve all problems but it can’t hurt. If the issue is that the variance parameter can be very small in the estimation, yes, one approach would be to put in a prior that keeps the variance away from 0 (lognormal, gamma, whatever), another approach would be to use the Matt trick. Some mixture of these ideas might help. And, by the way: when you do these things it might feel like an awkward bit of kluging to play around with the model to get it to convert properly. But the kluges of today are the textbook solutions of tomorrow. When it comes to statistical modeling, we’re living in beta-test world; we should appreciate the opportunities this gives us!
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Introduction: Daniel Gerlanc asks: I’ve been reading your Regression and Multilevel Modeling book. Do you have a set of example solutions for the problems in the book? Henning Piezunka, Adam Lynton, and others have asked the same question. My universal response: I’m glad you like our book. Unfortunately, we have no solution sets. I made a bunch of solutions for my earlier book but it was so much work that I decided not to do it a second time!
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Introduction: Vlad Kogan writes: I’ve using your book on regression and multilevel modeling and have a quick R question for you. Do you happen to know if there is any R package that can estimate a two-stage (instrumental variable) multi-level model? My reply: I don’t know. I’ll post on blog and maybe there will be a response. You could also try the R help list.
3 0.69619352 517 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-14-Bayes in China update
Introduction: Some clarification on the Bayes-in-China issue raised last week : 1. We heard that the Chinese publisher cited the following pages that might contain politically objectionable materials: 3, 5, 21, 73, 112, 201. 2. It appears that, as some commenters suggested, the objection was to some of the applications, not to the Bayesian methods. 3. Our book is not censored in China. In fact, as some commenters mentioned, it is possible to buy it there, and it is also available in university libraries there. The edition of the book which was canceled was intended to be a low-cost reprint of the book. The original book is still available. I used the phrase “Banned in China” as a joke and I apologize if it was misinterpreted. 4. I have no quarrel with the Chinese government or with any Chinese publishers. They can publish whatever books they would like. I found this episode amusing only because I do not think my book on regression and multilevel models has any strong political co
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Introduction: Ben Hansen recommended to me this book and course by Daniel Kaplan. It looks pretty good. I’ve only looked at the website, not the book itself, and I’m sure I’d find lots of places to disagree with it on details, but the general flow seemed reasonable, also I liked that there’s lots of course materials to go with it. Does anyone have any experience with this book? Is it the way to go (for now)?
5 0.63140965 127 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-04-Inequality and health
Introduction: Several people asked me for my thoughts on Richard Wilkinson and Kate Pickett’s book, “The Spirit Level: Why Greater Equality Makes Societies Stronger.” I’ve outsourced my thinking on the topic to Lane Kenworthy .
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Introduction: Mark Chaves sent me this great article on religion and religious practice: After reading a book or article in the scientific study of religion, I [Chaves] wonder if you ever find yourself thinking, “I just don’t believe it.” I have this experience uncomfortably often, and I think it’s because of a pervasive problem in the scientific study of religion. I want to describe that problem and how to overcome it. The problem is illustrated in a story told by Meyer Fortes. He once asked a rainmaker in a native culture he was studying to perform the rainmaking ceremony for him. The rainmaker refused, replying: “Don’t be a fool, whoever makes a rain-making ceremony in the dry season?” The problem is illustrated in a different way in a story told by Jay Demerath. He was in Israel, visiting friends for a Sabbath dinner. The man of the house, a conservative rabbi, stopped in the middle of chanting the prayers to say cheerfully: “You know, we don’t believe in any of this. But then in Judai
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Introduction: Steven Pinker writes : Human beings live in groups, are affected by the fortunes of their groups, and sometimes make sacrifices that benefit their groups. Does this mean that the human brain has been shaped by natural selection to promote the welfare of the group in competition with other groups, even when it damages the welfare of the person and his or her kin? . . . Several scientists whom I [Pinker] greatly respect have said so in prominent places. And they have gone on to use the theory of group selection to make eye-opening claims about the human condition. They have claimed that human morailty, particularly our willingness to engage in acts of altruism, can be explained as an adaptation to group-against-group competition. As E. O. Wilson explains, “In a group, selfish individuals beat altruistic individuals. But, groups of altruistic individuals beat groups of selfish individuals.” . . . I [Pinker] am often asked whether I agree with the new group selectionists, and the q
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Introduction: Daniel Gerlanc asks: I’ve been reading your Regression and Multilevel Modeling book. Do you have a set of example solutions for the problems in the book? Henning Piezunka, Adam Lynton, and others have asked the same question. My universal response: I’m glad you like our book. Unfortunately, we have no solution sets. I made a bunch of solutions for my earlier book but it was so much work that I decided not to do it a second time!
4 0.96964467 107 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-24-PPS in Georgia
Introduction: Lucy Flynn writes: I’m working at a non-profit organization called CRRC in the Republic of Georgia. I’m having a methodological problem and I saw the syllabus for your sampling class online and thought I might be able to ask you about it? We do a lot of complex surveys nationwide; our typical sample design is as follows: - stratify by rural/urban/capital - sub-stratify the rural and urban strata into NE/NW/SE/SW geographic quadrants - select voting precincts as PSUs - select households as SSUs - select individual respondents as TSUs I’m relatively new here, and past practice has been to sample voting precincts with probability proportional to size. It’s desirable because it’s not logistically feasible for us to vary the number of interviews per precinct with precinct size, so it makes the selection probabilities for households more even across precinct sizes. However, I have a complex sampling textbook (Lohr 1999), and it explains how complex it is to calculate sel
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Introduction: Dave Berri writes: Saw you had a post on the research I did with Rob Simmons on the NFL draft. I have attached the article. This article has not officially been published, so please don’t post this on-line. The post you linked to states the following: “On his blog, Berri says he restricts the analysis to QBs who have played more than 500 downs, or for 5 years. He also looks at per-play statistics, like touchdowns per game, to counter what he considers an opportunity bias.” Two points: First of all, we did not look at touchdowns per game (that is not a per play stat). More importantly — as this post indicates — we did far more than just look at data after five years. We did mention the five year result, but directly below that discussion (and I mean, directly below), the following sentences appear. Our data set runs from 1970 to 2007 (adjustments were made for how performance changed over time). We also looked at career performance after 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, and 8 years
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