andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1978 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: In his new book, “What is Your Race? The Census and Our Flawed Efforts to Classify Americans,” former Census Bureau director Ken Prewitt recommends taking the race question off the decennial census: He recommends gradual changes, integrating the race and national origin questions while improving both. In particular, he would replace the main “race” question by a “race or origin” question, with the instruction to “Mark one or more” of the following boxes: “White,” “Black, African Am., or Negro,” “Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin,” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” “Asian”, “Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander,” and “Some other race or origin.” Then the next question is to write in “specific race, origin, or enrolled or principal tribe.” Prewitt writes: His suggestion is to go with these questions in 2020 and 2030, then in 2040 “drop the race question and use only the national origin question.” He’s also relying on the American Community Survey to gather a lo
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 The Census and Our Flawed Efforts to Classify Americans,” former Census Bureau director Ken Prewitt recommends taking the race question off the decennial census: He recommends gradual changes, integrating the race and national origin questions while improving both. [sent-2, score-2.763]
2 In particular, he would replace the main “race” question by a “race or origin” question, with the instruction to “Mark one or more” of the following boxes: “White,” “Black, African Am. [sent-3, score-0.344]
3 , or Negro,” “Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin,” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” “Asian”, “Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander,” and “Some other race or origin. [sent-4, score-0.528]
4 ” Then the next question is to write in “specific race, origin, or enrolled or principal tribe. [sent-5, score-0.317]
5 ” Prewitt writes: His suggestion is to go with these questions in 2020 and 2030, then in 2040 “drop the race question and use only the national origin question. [sent-6, score-1.383]
6 ” He’s also relying on the American Community Survey to gather a lot of the demographic information that is useful for so many purposes. [sent-7, score-0.226]
wordName wordTfidf (topN-words)
[('race', 0.528), ('origin', 0.48), ('prewitt', 0.256), ('census', 0.213), ('recommends', 0.174), ('native', 0.169), ('question', 0.138), ('decennial', 0.117), ('islander', 0.117), ('pacific', 0.11), ('integrating', 0.105), ('latino', 0.105), ('alaska', 0.102), ('enrolled', 0.099), ('indian', 0.099), ('classify', 0.099), ('african', 0.096), ('hispanic', 0.096), ('national', 0.094), ('gradual', 0.094), ('instruction', 0.092), ('boxes', 0.092), ('spanish', 0.09), ('ken', 0.089), ('bureau', 0.085), ('american', 0.084), ('asian', 0.082), ('director', 0.081), ('principal', 0.08), ('relying', 0.08), ('questions', 0.078), ('gather', 0.074), ('flawed', 0.074), ('purposes', 0.074), ('demographic', 0.072), ('improving', 0.069), ('replace', 0.069), ('drop', 0.069), ('suggestion', 0.065), ('black', 0.063), ('efforts', 0.063), ('former', 0.061), ('community', 0.059), ('white', 0.057), ('americans', 0.052), ('changes', 0.052), ('mark', 0.05), ('specific', 0.049), ('main', 0.045), ('taking', 0.042)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 1.0 1978 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-12-Fixing the race, ethnicity, and national origin questions on the U.S. Census
Introduction: In his new book, “What is Your Race? The Census and Our Flawed Efforts to Classify Americans,” former Census Bureau director Ken Prewitt recommends taking the race question off the decennial census: He recommends gradual changes, integrating the race and national origin questions while improving both. In particular, he would replace the main “race” question by a “race or origin” question, with the instruction to “Mark one or more” of the following boxes: “White,” “Black, African Am., or Negro,” “Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin,” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” “Asian”, “Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander,” and “Some other race or origin.” Then the next question is to write in “specific race, origin, or enrolled or principal tribe.” Prewitt writes: His suggestion is to go with these questions in 2020 and 2030, then in 2040 “drop the race question and use only the national origin question.” He’s also relying on the American Community Survey to gather a lo
2 0.2294157 1166 andrew gelman stats-2012-02-13-Recently in the sister blog
Introduction: Lingsanity! What the sophisticates thought in September 2008 Political opinions of U.S. military The origin of essentialist reasoning
3 0.17103444 374 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-No matter how famous you are, billions of people have never heard of you.
Introduction: I was recently speaking with a member of the U.S. House of Representatives, a Californian in a tight race this year. I mentioned the fivethirtyeight.com prediction for him, and he said “fivethirtyeight.com? What’s that?”
4 0.15122364 245 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-31-Predicting marathon times
Introduction: Frank Hansen writes: I [Hansen] signed up for my first marathon race. Everyone asks me my predicted time. The predictors online seem geared to or are based off of elite runners. And anyway they seem a bit limited. So I decided to do some analysis of my own. I was going to put together a web page where people could get their race time predictions, maybe sell some ads for sports gps watches, but it might also be publishable. I have 2 requests which obviously I don’t want you to spend more than a few seconds on. 1. I was wondering if you knew of any sports performance researchers working on performance of not just elite athletes, but the full range of runners. 2. Can you suggest a way to do multilevel modeling of this. There are several natural subsets for the data but it’s not obvious what makes sense. I describe the data below. 3. Phil (the runner/co-blogger who posted about weight loss) might be interested. I collected race results for the Chicago marathon and 3
Introduction: Aleks points me to this article showing some pretty maps by Eric Fisher showing where people of different ethnicity live within several metro areas within the U.S. The idea is simple but effective; in the words of Cliff Kuang: Fisher used a straight forward method borrowed from Rankin: Using U.S. Census data from 2000, he created a map where one dot equals 25 people. The dots are then color-coded based on race: White is pink; Black is blue; Hispanic is orange, and Asian is green. The results for various cities are fascinating: Just like every city is different, every city is integrated (or segregated) in different ways. New York is shown below. No, San Francisco is not “very, very white” But I worry that these maps are difficult for non-experts to read. For example, Kuang writes the following:: San Francisco proper is very, very white. This is an understandable mistake coming from someone who, I assume, has never lived in the Bay Area. But what’s amazing i
6 0.11961973 730 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-25-Rechecking the census
7 0.097996563 2119 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-01-Separated by a common blah blah blah
8 0.091799438 962 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-17-Death!
9 0.088435277 1307 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-07-The hare, the pineapple, and Ed Wegman
10 0.078150965 150 andrew gelman stats-2010-07-16-Gaydar update: Additional research on estimating small fractions of the population
11 0.074921176 1086 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-27-The most dangerous jobs in America
12 0.074444197 405 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Estimation from an out-of-date census
13 0.071119778 1027 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-25-Note to student journalists: Google is your friend
14 0.068328977 1831 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-29-The Great Race
15 0.066829398 312 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-02-“Regression to the mean” is fine. But what’s the “mean”?
16 0.064822339 2255 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-19-How Americans vote
17 0.061970171 1332 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-20-Problemen met het boek
18 0.060774095 1316 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-12-black and Black, white and White
19 0.054966897 404 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-09-“Much of the recent reported drop in interstate migration is a statistical artifact”
20 0.054321148 1548 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-25-Health disparities are associated with low life expectancy
topicId topicWeight
[(0, 0.06), (1, -0.024), (2, 0.055), (3, 0.005), (4, 0.011), (5, 0.035), (6, -0.005), (7, 0.014), (8, 0.008), (9, -0.024), (10, 0.017), (11, -0.019), (12, 0.007), (13, 0.045), (14, 0.002), (15, 0.014), (16, 0.003), (17, 0.011), (18, 0.022), (19, -0.015), (20, -0.02), (21, -0.004), (22, -0.022), (23, 0.007), (24, 0.006), (25, 0.006), (26, 0.021), (27, 0.004), (28, 0.044), (29, 0.024), (30, 0.012), (31, -0.035), (32, 0.002), (33, 0.033), (34, 0.007), (35, -0.001), (36, 0.034), (37, 0.013), (38, 0.021), (39, 0.029), (40, -0.047), (41, -0.006), (42, 0.009), (43, -0.004), (44, -0.004), (45, 0.012), (46, 0.002), (47, 0.0), (48, 0.011), (49, 0.031)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
same-blog 1 0.95781451 1978 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-12-Fixing the race, ethnicity, and national origin questions on the U.S. Census
Introduction: In his new book, “What is Your Race? The Census and Our Flawed Efforts to Classify Americans,” former Census Bureau director Ken Prewitt recommends taking the race question off the decennial census: He recommends gradual changes, integrating the race and national origin questions while improving both. In particular, he would replace the main “race” question by a “race or origin” question, with the instruction to “Mark one or more” of the following boxes: “White,” “Black, African Am., or Negro,” “Hispanic, Latino, or Spanish origin,” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” “Asian”, “Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander,” and “Some other race or origin.” Then the next question is to write in “specific race, origin, or enrolled or principal tribe.” Prewitt writes: His suggestion is to go with these questions in 2020 and 2030, then in 2040 “drop the race question and use only the national origin question.” He’s also relying on the American Community Survey to gather a lo
2 0.74992603 730 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-25-Rechecking the census
Introduction: Sam Roberts writes : The Census Bureau [reported] that though New York City’s population reached a record high of 8,175,133 in 2010, the gain of 2 percent, or 166,855 people, since 2000 fell about 200,000 short of what the bureau itself had estimated. Public officials were incredulous that a city that lures tens of thousands of immigrants each year and where a forest of new buildings has sprouted could really have recorded such a puny increase. How, they wondered, could Queens have grown by only one-tenth of 1 percent since 2000? How, even with a surge in foreclosures, could the number of vacant apartments have soared by nearly 60 percent in Queens and by 66 percent in Brooklyn? That does seem a bit suspicious. So the newspaper did its own survey: Now, a house-to-house New York Times survey of three representative square blocks where the Census Bureau said vacancies had increased and the population had declined since 2000 suggests that the city’s outrage is somewhat ju
3 0.70263731 381 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-30-Sorry, Senator DeMint: Most Americans Don’t Want to Ban Gays from the Classroom
Introduction: Justin Phillips placed some questions on the YouGov Model Politics poll and reports the following: Early this month, Senator Jim DeMint (R-South Carolina) angered gay rights organizations when he said that openly gay people (along with sexually active unmarried women) shouldn’t be teaching in the classroom. This comment was originally reported in the Spartanberg Herald-Journal and subsequently covered by a variety of national media outlets including CBS News. The Senator justified his comments by suggesting that his beliefs are shared by many Americans. DeMint told the Herald Journal “[When I said those things] no one came to my defense. But everyone would come to me and whisper that I shouldn’t back down. They don’t want government purging their rights and their freedom to religion.” So is the Senator correct? Do Americans want openly gay men and women out of the classroom? . . . Most Americans do not share Senator DeMint’s views. Our survey shows that a large majorit
Introduction: A reporter emailed me the other day with a question about a case I’d never heard of before, a company called Herbalife that is being accused of being a pyramid scheme. The reporter pointed me to this document which describes a survey conducted by “a third party firm called Lieberman Research”: Two independent studies took place using real time (aka “river”) sampling, in which respondents were intercepted across a wide array of websites Sample size of 2,000 adults 18+ matched to U.S. census on age, gender, income, region and ethnicity “River sampling” in this case appears to mean, according to the reporter, that “people were invited into it through online ads.” The survey found that 5% of U.S. households had purchased Herbalife products during the past three months (with a “0.8% margin of error,” ha ha ha). They they did a multiplication and a division to estimate that only 8% of households who bought these products were Herbalife distributors: 480,000 active distributor
Introduction: Earlier today, Nate criticized a U.S. military survey that asks troops the question, “Do you currently serve with a male or female Service member you believe to be homosexual.” [emphasis added] As Nate points out, by asking this question in such a speculative way, “it would seem that you’ll be picking up a tremendous number of false positives–soldiers who are believed to be gay, but aren’t–and that these false positives will swamp any instances in which soldiers (in spite of DADT) are actually somewhat open about their same-sex attractions.” This is a general problem in survey research. In an article in Chance magazine in 1997, “The myth of millions of annual self-defense gun uses: a case study of survey overestimates of rare events” [see here for related references], David Hemenway uses the false-positive, false-negative reasoning to explain this bias in terms of probability theory. Misclassifications that induce seemingly minor biases in estimates of certain small probab
6 0.60478079 1940 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-16-A poll that throws away data???
7 0.59623003 405 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-10-Estimation from an out-of-date census
8 0.59546697 1323 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-16-Question 6 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
9 0.59173203 1371 andrew gelman stats-2012-06-07-Question 28 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
10 0.58806193 1322 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-15-Question 5 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
11 0.58420652 784 andrew gelman stats-2011-07-01-Weighting and prediction in sample surveys
12 0.58126926 196 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-10-The U.S. as welfare state
13 0.56532586 12 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-30-More on problems with surveys estimating deaths in war zones
14 0.56492102 385 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-31-Wacky surveys where they don’t tell you the questions they asked
16 0.55853271 1320 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-14-Question 4 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
17 0.55842125 1288 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-29-Clueless Americans think they’ll never get sick
18 0.55574441 1437 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-Paying survey respondents
19 0.55060375 1356 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-31-Question 21 of my final exam for Design and Analysis of Sample Surveys
topicId topicWeight
[(7, 0.043), (15, 0.024), (16, 0.026), (24, 0.521), (58, 0.015), (62, 0.017), (82, 0.015), (86, 0.047), (95, 0.014), (96, 0.013), (99, 0.134)]
simIndex simValue blogId blogTitle
Introduction: Jouni Kerman did a cool bit of research justifying the Beta (1/3, 1/3) prior as noninformative for binomial data, and the Gamma (1/3, 0) prior for Poisson data. You probably thought that nothing new could be said about noninformative priors in such basic problems, but you were wrong! Here’s the story : The conjugate binomial and Poisson models are commonly used for estimating proportions or rates. However, it is not well known that the conventional noninformative conjugate priors tend to shrink the posterior quantiles toward the boundary or toward the middle of the parameter space, making them thus appear excessively informative. The shrinkage is always largest when the number of observed events is small. This behavior persists for all sample sizes and exposures. The effect of the prior is therefore most conspicuous and potentially controversial when analyzing rare events. As alternative default conjugate priors, I [Jouni] introduce Beta(1/3, 1/3) and Gamma(1/3, 0), which I cal
2 0.98906207 1437 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-31-Paying survey respondents
Introduction: I agree with Casey Mulligan that participants in government surveys should be paid, and I think it should be part of the code of ethics for commercial pollsters to compensate their respondents also. As Mulligan points out, if a survey is worth doing, it should be worth compensating the participants for their time and effort. P.S. Just to clarify, I do not recommend that Census surveys be made voluntary, I just think that respondents (who can be required to participate) should be paid a small amount. P.P.S. More rant here .
3 0.98883069 471 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-17-Attractive models (and data) wanted for statistical art show.
Introduction: I have agreed to do a local art exhibition in February. An excuse to think about form, colour and style for plotting almost individual observation likelihoods – while invoking the artists privilege of refusing to give interpretations of their own work. In order to make it possibly less dry I’ll try to use intuitive suggestive captions like in this example TheTyranyof13.pdf thereby side stepping the technical discussions like here RadfordNealBlog Suggested models and data sets (or even submissions) would be most appreciated. I likely be sticking to realism i.e. plots that represent ‘statistical reality’ faithfully. K?
4 0.98273706 240 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-ARM solutions
Introduction: People sometimes email asking if a solution set is available for the exercises in ARM. The answer, unfortunately, is no. Many years ago, I wrote up 50 solutions for BDA and it was a lot of work–really, it was like writing a small book in itself. The trouble is that, once I started writing them up, I wanted to do it right, to set a good example. That’s a lot more effort than simply scrawling down some quick answers.
5 0.97765094 545 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-30-New innovations in spam
Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email today: Hello Andrew, I’m interested in whether you are accepting guest article submissions for your site Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science? I’m the owner of the recently created nonprofit site OnlineEngineeringDegree.org and am interested in writing / submitting an article for your consideration to be published on your site. Is that something you’d be willing to consider, and if so, what specs in terms of topics or length requirements would you be looking for? Thanks you for your time, and if you have any questions or are interested, I’d appreciate you letting me know. Sincerely, Samantha Rhodes Huh? P.S. My vote for most obnoxious spam remains this one , which does its best to dilute whatever remains of the reputation of Wolfram Research. Or maybe that particular bit of spam was written by a particularly awesome cellular automaton that Wolfram discovered? I guess in the world of big-time software
7 0.97234076 59 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-30-Extended Binary Format Support for Mac OS X
same-blog 8 0.95835412 1978 andrew gelman stats-2013-08-12-Fixing the race, ethnicity, and national origin questions on the U.S. Census
9 0.95795614 613 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-15-Gay-married state senator shot down gay marriage
10 0.95795614 712 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-14-The joys of working in the public domain
11 0.95795614 723 andrew gelman stats-2011-05-21-Literary blurb translation guide
12 0.95795614 1242 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-03-Best lottery story ever
13 0.95795614 1252 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-08-Jagdish Bhagwati’s definition of feminist sincerity
14 0.95722085 38 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-18-Breastfeeding, infant hyperbilirubinemia, statistical graphics, and modern medicine
15 0.95099992 2229 andrew gelman stats-2014-02-28-God-leaf-tree
16 0.94712162 241 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-29-Ethics and statistics in development research
17 0.94437379 938 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-03-Comparing prediction errors
18 0.94217449 1092 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-29-More by Berger and me on weakly informative priors
19 0.94200516 1479 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-01-Mothers and Moms
20 0.94006807 373 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-27-It’s better than being forwarded the latest works of you-know-who