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1829 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-28-Plain old everyday Bayesianism!


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Introduction: Sam Behseta writes: There is a report by Martin Tingley and Peter Huybers in Nature on the unprecedented high temperatures at northern latitudes (Russia, Greenland, etc). What is more interesting is the authors are have used a straightforward hierarchical Bayes model, and for the first time (as far as I can remember) the results are reported with a probability attached to them (P>0.99), as opposed to the usual p-value<0.01 business. This might be a sign that editors of big time science journals are welcoming Bayesian approaches. I agree. This is a good sign for statistical communication. Here are the key sentences from the abstract: Here, using a hierarchical Bayesian analysis of instrumental, tree-ring, ice-core and lake-sediment records, we show that the magnitude and frequency of recent warm temperature extremes at high northern latitudes are unprecedented in the past 600 years. The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior years back to 1


Summary: the most important sentenses genereted by tfidf model

sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore

1 Sam Behseta writes: There is a report by Martin Tingley and Peter Huybers in Nature on the unprecedented high temperatures at northern latitudes (Russia, Greenland, etc). [sent-1, score-0.942]

2 What is more interesting is the authors are have used a straightforward hierarchical Bayes model, and for the first time (as far as I can remember) the results are reported with a probability attached to them (P>0. [sent-2, score-0.427]

3 This might be a sign that editors of big time science journals are welcoming Bayesian approaches. [sent-5, score-0.356]

4 This is a good sign for statistical communication. [sent-7, score-0.144]

5 The summers of 2005, 2007, 2010 and 2011 were warmer than those of all prior years back to 1400 (probability P > 0. [sent-9, score-0.217]

6 The summer of 2010 was the warmest in the previous 600 years in western Russia (P > 0. [sent-11, score-0.563]

7 99) and probably the warmest in western Greenland and the Canadian Arctic as well (P > 0. [sent-12, score-0.479]

8 These and other recent extremes greatly exceed those expected from a stationary climate, but can be understood as resulting from constant space–time variability about an increased mean temperature. [sent-14, score-1.02]

9 As with classical p-values, these probability statements depend on an assumed model, but I agree with Sam that the expression of direct probabilities is a huge step forward from traditional practice. [sent-15, score-0.374]


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Introduction: The National Climatic Data Center has tentatively announced that 2010 is, get this, “tied” for warmest on record. Presumably they mean it’s tied to the precision that they quote (1.12 F above the 20th-century average). The uncertainty in the measurements, as well as some fuzziness about exactly what is being measured (how much of the atmosphere, and the oceans) makes these global-average things really suspect. For instance, if there’s more oceanic turnover one year, that can warm the deep ocean but cool the shallow ocean and atmosphere, so even though the heat content of the atmosphere-ocean system goes up, some of these “global-average” estimates can go down. The reverse can happen too. And of course there are various sources of natural variability that are not, these days, what most people are most interested in. So everybody who knows about the climate professes to hate the emphasis on climate records. And yet, they’re irresistible. I’m sure we’ll see the usual clamor of som

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