andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1618 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
Source: html
Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email: Hello, *** LLC, a ***-based market research company, has a financial client who is interested in speaking with a statistician who has done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease and preferably familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials. We offer an honorarium of $200 for a 30 minute telephone interview. Please advise us if you have an employment or consulting agreement with any organization or operate professionally pursuant to an organization’s code of conduct or employee manual that may control activities by you outside of your regular present and former employment, such as participating in this consulting project for MedPanel. If there are such contracts or other documents that do apply to you, please forward MedPanel a copy of each such document asap as we are obligated to review such documents to determine if you are permitted to participate as a consultant for MedPanel on a project with this particular client. If you are
sentIndex sentText sentNum sentScore
1 I received the following (unsolicited) email: Hello, *** LLC, a ***-based market research company, has a financial client who is interested in speaking with a statistician who has done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease and preferably familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials. [sent-1, score-0.961]
2 We offer an honorarium of $200 for a 30 minute telephone interview. [sent-2, score-0.264]
3 If there are such contracts or other documents that do apply to you, please forward MedPanel a copy of each such document asap as we are obligated to review such documents to determine if you are permitted to participate as a consultant for MedPanel on a project with this particular client. [sent-4, score-1.425]
4 If you are not the right person and know someone who is I would appreciate your help. [sent-5, score-0.069]
5 I’ve never done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease, nor am I familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials! [sent-9, score-0.423]
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same-blog 1 1.0 1618 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-11-The consulting biz
Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email: Hello, *** LLC, a ***-based market research company, has a financial client who is interested in speaking with a statistician who has done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease and preferably familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials. We offer an honorarium of $200 for a 30 minute telephone interview. Please advise us if you have an employment or consulting agreement with any organization or operate professionally pursuant to an organization’s code of conduct or employee manual that may control activities by you outside of your regular present and former employment, such as participating in this consulting project for MedPanel. If there are such contracts or other documents that do apply to you, please forward MedPanel a copy of each such document asap as we are obligated to review such documents to determine if you are permitted to participate as a consultant for MedPanel on a project with this particular client. If you are
2 0.12644354 1596 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-29-More consulting experiences, this time in computational linguistics
Introduction: Bob wrote this long comment that I think is worth posting: I [Bob] have done a fair bit of consulting for my small natural language processing company over the past ten years. Like statistics, natural language processing is something may companies think they want, but have no idea how to do themselves. We almost always handed out “free” consulting. Usually on the phone to people who called us out of the blue. Our blog and tutorials Google ranking was pretty much our only approach to marketing other than occassionally going to business-oriented conferences. Our goal was to sell software licenses (because consulting doesn’t scale nor does it provide continuing royalty income), but since so few people knew how to use toolkits like ours, we had to help them along the way. We even provided “free” consulting with our startup license package. We were brutally honest with customers, both about our goals and their goals. Their goals were often incompatible with ours (use company X’
3 0.11328062 1597 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-29-What is expected of a consultant
Introduction: Robin Hanson writes on paid expert consulting (of the sort that I do sometime, and is common among economists and statisticians). Hanson agrees with Keith Yost, who says: Fellow consultants and associates . . . [said] fifty percent of the job is nodding your head at whatever’s being said, thirty percent of it is just sort of looking good, and the other twenty percent is raising an objection but then if you meet resistance, then dropping it. On the other side is Steven Levitt, who Hanson quotes as saying: My own experience has been that even though I know nothing about an industry, if you give me a week, and you get a bunch of really smart people to explain the industry to me, and to tell me what they do, a lot of times what I’ve learned in economics, what I’ve learned in other places can actually be really helpful in changing the way that they see the world. Perhaps unsurprisingly given my Bayesian attitudes and my preference for continuity , I’m inclined to split the d
Introduction: Yesterday we had a spirited discussion of the following conditional probability puzzle: “I have two children. One is a boy born on a Tuesday. What is the probability I have two boys?” This reminded me of the principle, familiar from statistics instruction and the cognitive psychology literature, that the best way to teach these sorts of examples is through integers rather than fractions. For example, consider this classic problem: “10% of persons have disease X. You are tested for the disease and test positive, and the test has 80% accuracy. What is the probability that you have the disease?” This can be solved directly using conditional probability but it appears to be clearer to do it using integers: Start with 100 people. 10 will have the disease and 90 will not. Of the 10 with the disease, 8 will test positive and 2 will test negative. Of the 90 without the disease, 18 will test positive and 72% will test negative. (72% = 0.8*90.) So, out of the origin
5 0.089533687 2118 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-30-???
Introduction: I received the following unsolicited email, subject line Technology and Engineering Research: Dear Editor We have done research in some of the cutting edge technology and engineering field and would like to if you will be able to write about it in your news section. Our Primarily research focus on building high performance systems that are helping in social networks, web, finding disease, cancer and sports using BIG DATA . Hope to hear from you some time soon. Thanks, ***, PhD Chartered Scientist IBM Corportation ***@us.ibm.com 916 *** **** I thought IBM was a professional operation—don’t they have their own public relations department?
6 0.087550282 395 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-05-Consulting: how do you figure out what to charge?
7 0.082304284 1221 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-19-Whassup with deviance having a high posterior correlation with a parameter in the model?
8 0.080519117 1872 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-More spam!
9 0.078281835 411 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Ethical concerns in medical trials
10 0.075915918 1080 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-24-Latest in blog advertising
11 0.074756056 1191 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-01-Hoe noem je?
12 0.069250084 1909 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-21-Job openings at conservative political analytics firm!
13 0.069095686 231 andrew gelman stats-2010-08-24-Yet another Bayesian job opportunity
14 0.068562336 18 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?
15 0.068168104 2291 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-14-Transitioning to Stan
16 0.067091003 1110 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-10-Jobs in statistics research! In New Jersey!
17 0.066470034 545 andrew gelman stats-2011-01-30-New innovations in spam
18 0.0640264 549 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-01-“Roughly 90% of the increase in . . .” Hey, wait a minute!
19 0.060572851 1240 andrew gelman stats-2012-04-02-Blogads update
20 0.05955714 1434 andrew gelman stats-2012-07-29-FindTheData.org
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same-blog 1 0.97325426 1618 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-11-The consulting biz
Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email: Hello, *** LLC, a ***-based market research company, has a financial client who is interested in speaking with a statistician who has done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease and preferably familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials. We offer an honorarium of $200 for a 30 minute telephone interview. Please advise us if you have an employment or consulting agreement with any organization or operate professionally pursuant to an organization’s code of conduct or employee manual that may control activities by you outside of your regular present and former employment, such as participating in this consulting project for MedPanel. If there are such contracts or other documents that do apply to you, please forward MedPanel a copy of each such document asap as we are obligated to review such documents to determine if you are permitted to participate as a consultant for MedPanel on a project with this particular client. If you are
2 0.78023803 2118 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-30-???
Introduction: I received the following unsolicited email, subject line Technology and Engineering Research: Dear Editor We have done research in some of the cutting edge technology and engineering field and would like to if you will be able to write about it in your news section. Our Primarily research focus on building high performance systems that are helping in social networks, web, finding disease, cancer and sports using BIG DATA . Hope to hear from you some time soon. Thanks, ***, PhD Chartered Scientist IBM Corportation ***@us.ibm.com 916 *** **** I thought IBM was a professional operation—don’t they have their own public relations department?
3 0.76268172 866 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-23-Participate in a research project on combining information for prediction
Introduction: Thomas Wallsten writes: To viewers of Dr. Andrew Gelman’s blog, I [Wallsten] am pleased to invite you to participate in an important research project to develop improved methods for predicting future events and outcomes. More specifically, our goal is to develop methods for aggregating many individual judgments in a manner that yields more accurate predictions than any one person or small group alone could provide. Our research is funded by the Intelligence Advanced Research Project Activity (IARPA, iarpa.gov ), but its application will extend far beyond intelligence to such areas as business forecasting or medical diagnosis. Our team consists of researchers at ARA, a private company; as well as researchers at the University of Maryland-College Park, University of Michigan, Ohio State University, Fordham University, University of California-Irvine, Wake Forest University, and the University of Missouri. Details can be found at forecastingace.com/ . We are seeking to recruit ind
4 0.74814743 18 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-06-$63,000 worth of abusive research . . . or just a really stupid waste of time?
Introduction: As someone who relies strongly on survey research, it’s good for me to be reminded that some surveys are useful, some are useless, but one thing they almost all have in common is . . . they waste the respondents’ time. I thought of this after receiving the following email, which I shall reproduce here. My own comments appear after. Recently, you received an email from a student asking for 10 minutes of your time to discuss your Ph.D. program (the body of the email appears below). We are emailing you today to debrief you on the actual purpose of that email, as it was part of a research study. We sincerely hope our study did not cause you any disruption and we apologize if you were at all inconvenienced. Our hope is that this letter will provide a sufficient explanation of the purpose and design of our study to alleviate any concerns you may have about your involvement. We want to thank you for your time and for reading further if you are interested in understanding why you rece
5 0.7467643 343 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-15-?
Introduction: How am I supposed to handle this sort of thing? (See below.) I just stuck it one of my email folders without responding, but then I wondered . . . what’s it all about? Is there some sort of Glengarry Glen Ross-like parallel world where down-on-their-luck Jack Lemmons of public relations world send out electronic cold calls? More than anything else, this sort of thing makes me glad I have a steady job. Here’s the (unsolicited) email, which came with the subject line “Please help a reporter do his job”: Dear Andrew, As an Editor for the Bulldog Reporter (www.bulldogreporter.com/dailydog), a media relations trade publication, my job is to help ensure that my readers have accurate info about you and send you the best quality pitches. By taking five minutes or less to answer my questions (pasted below), you’ll receive targeted PR pitches from our client base that will match your beat and interests. Any help or direction is appreciated. Here are my questions. We have you listed
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9 0.66899115 1589 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-25-Life as a blogger: the emails just get weirder and weirder
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11 0.65977269 577 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-16-Annals of really really stupid spam
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13 0.65310585 1872 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-27-More spam!
14 0.65260887 2239 andrew gelman stats-2014-03-09-Reviewing the peer review process?
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16 0.6472277 465 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-13-$3M health care prediction challenge
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19 0.64389592 411 andrew gelman stats-2010-11-13-Ethical concerns in medical trials
20 0.64224315 1080 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-24-Latest in blog advertising
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same-blog 1 0.90647471 1618 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-11-The consulting biz
Introduction: I received the following (unsolicited) email: Hello, *** LLC, a ***-based market research company, has a financial client who is interested in speaking with a statistician who has done research in the field of Alzheimer’s Disease and preferably familiar with the SOLA and BAPI trials. We offer an honorarium of $200 for a 30 minute telephone interview. Please advise us if you have an employment or consulting agreement with any organization or operate professionally pursuant to an organization’s code of conduct or employee manual that may control activities by you outside of your regular present and former employment, such as participating in this consulting project for MedPanel. If there are such contracts or other documents that do apply to you, please forward MedPanel a copy of each such document asap as we are obligated to review such documents to determine if you are permitted to participate as a consultant for MedPanel on a project with this particular client. If you are
Introduction: Alexander at GiveWell writes : The Disease Control Priorities in Developing Countries (DCP2), a major report funded by the Gates Foundation . . . provides an estimate of $3.41 per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) for the cost-effectiveness of soil-transmitted-helminth (STH) treatment, implying that STH treatment is one of the most cost-effective interventions for global health. In investigating this figure, we have corresponded, over a period of months, with six scholars who had been directly or indirectly involved in the production of the estimate. Eventually, we were able to obtain the spreadsheet that was used to generate the $3.41/DALY estimate. That spreadsheet contains five separate errors that, when corrected, shift the estimated cost effectiveness of deworming from $3.41 to $326.43. [I think they mean to say $300 -- ed.] We came to this conclusion a year after learning that the DCP2’s published cost-effectiveness estimate for schistosomiasis treatment – another kind of
3 0.80338001 1801 andrew gelman stats-2013-04-13-Can you write a program to determine the causal order?
Introduction: Mike Zyphur writes: Kaggle.com has launched a competition to determine what’s an effect and what’s a cause. They’ve got correlated variables, they’re deprived of context, and you’re asked to determine the causal order. $5,000 prizes. I followed the link and the example they gave didn’t make much sense to me (the two variables were temperature and altitude of cities in Germany, and they said that altitude causes temperature). It has the feeling to me of one of those weird standardized tests we used to see sometimes in school, where there’s no real correct answer so the goal is to figure out what the test-writer wanted you to say. Nonetheless, this might be of interest, so I’m passing it along to you.
4 0.80160236 1919 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-29-R sucks
Introduction: I was trying to make some new graphs using 5-year-old R code and I got all these problems because I was reading in files with variable names such as “co.fipsid” and now R is automatically changing them to “co_fipsid”. Or maybe the names had underbars all along, and the old R had changed them into dots. Whatever. I understand that backward compatibility can be hard to maintain, but this is just annoying.
5 0.78561252 1918 andrew gelman stats-2013-06-29-Going negative
Introduction: Troels Ring writes: I have measured total phosphorus, TP, on a number of dialysis patients, and also measured conventional phosphate, Pi. Now P is exchanged with the environment as Pi, so in principle a correlation between TP and Pi could perhaps be expected. I’m really most interested in the fraction of TP which is not Pi, that is TP-Pi. I would also expect that to be positively correlated with Pi. However, looking at the data using a mixed model an insignificant negative correlation is obtained. Then I thought, that since TP-Pi is bound to be small if Pi is large a negative correlation is almost dictated by the math even if the biology would have it otherwise in so far as the the TP-Pi, likely organic P, must someday have been Pi. Hence I thought about correcting the slight negative correlation between TP-Pi and Pi for the expected large negative correlation due to the math – to eventually recover what I came from: a positive correlation. People seems to agree that this thinki
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19 0.66508365 1605 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-04-Write This Book
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