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1537 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-17-100!


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Introduction: Behavioral and Brain Sciences


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Introduction: Behavioral and Brain Sciences

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Introduction: Rob Calver writes: Large and complex datasets are becoming prevalent in the social and behavioral sciences and statistical methods are crucial for the analysis and interpretation of such data. The Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences Series aims to capture new developments in statistical methodology with particular relevance to applications in the social and behavioral sciences. It seeks to promote appropriate use of statistical, econometric and psychometric methods in these applied sciences by publishing a broad range of monographs, textbooks and handbooks. The scope of the series is wide, including applications of statistical methodology in sociology, psychology, economics, education, marketing research, political science, criminology, public policy, demography, survey methodology and official statistics. The titles included in the series are designed to appeal to applied statisticians, as well as students, researchers and practitioners from the

3 0.24957985 48 andrew gelman stats-2010-05-23-The bane of many causes

Introduction: One of the newsflies buzzing around today is an article “Brain tumour risk in relation to mobile telephone use: results of the INTERPHONE international case-control study” . The results, shown in this pretty table below, appear to be inconclusive. A limited amount of cellphone radiation is good for your brain, but not too much? It’s unfortunate that the extremes are truncated. The commentary at Microwave News blames bias: The problem with selection bias –also called participation bias– became apparent after the brain tumor risks observed throughout the study were so low as to defy reason. If they reflect reality, they would indicate that cell phones confer immediate protection against tumors. All sides agree that this is extremely unlikely. Further analysis pointed to unanticipated differences between the cases (those with brain tumors) and the controls (the reference group). The second problem concerns how accurately study participants could recall the amount of t

4 0.167118 1298 andrew gelman stats-2012-05-03-News from the sister blog!

Introduction: US National Academy of Sciences elects 84 new members (Please click through and read the whole thing.)

5 0.14828563 2292 andrew gelman stats-2014-04-15-When you believe in things that you don’t understand

Introduction: This would make Karl Popper cry. And, at the very end: The present results indicate that under certain, theoretically predictable circumstances, female ovulation—long assumed to be hidden—is in fact associated with a distinct, objectively observable behavioral display. This statement is correct—if you interpret the word “predictable” to mean “predictable after looking at your data.” P.S. I’d like to say that April 15 is a good day for this posting because your tax dollars went toward supporting this research. But actually it was supported by the Social Sciences Research Council of Canada, and I assume they do their taxes on their own schedule. P.P.S. In preemptive response to people who think I’m being mean by picking on these researchers, let me just say: Nobody forced them to publish these articles. If you put your ideas out there, you have to be ready for criticism.

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Introduction: Behavioral and Brain Sciences

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Introduction: Hey, this looks cool: Towards a Theory of Trust in Networks of Humans and Computers Virgil Gligor Carnegie Mellon University We argue that a general theory of trust in networks of humans and computers must be build on both a theory of behavioral trust and a theory of computational trust. This argument is motivated by increased participation of people in social networking, crowdsourcing, human computation, and socio-economic protocols, e.g., protocols modeled by trust and gift-exchange games, norms-establishing contracts, and scams/deception. User participation in these protocols relies primarily on trust, since on-line verification of protocol compliance is often impractical; e.g., verification can lead to undecidable problems, co-NP complete test procedures, and user inconvenience. Trust is captured by participant preferences (i.e., risk and betrayal aversion) and beliefs in the trustworthiness of other protocol participants. Both preferences and beliefs can be enhanced

3 0.56541061 1932 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-10-Don’t trust the Turk

Introduction: Dan Kahan gives a bunch of reasons not to trust Mechanical Turk in psychology experiments, in particular when studying “hypotheses about cognition and political conflict over societal risks and other policy-relevant facts.”

4 0.53993285 978 andrew gelman stats-2011-10-28-Cool job opening with brilliant researchers at Yahoo

Introduction: Duncan Watts writes: The Human Social Dynamics Group in Yahoo Research is seeking highly qualified candidates for a post-doctoral research scientist position. The Human and Social Dynamics group is devoted to understanding the interplay between individual-level behavior (e.g. how people make decisions about what music they like, which dates to go on, or which groups to join) and the social environment in which individual behavior necessarily plays itself out. In particular, we are interested in: * Structure and evolution of social groups and networks * Decision making, social influence, diffusion, and collective decisions * Networking and collaborative problem solving. The intrinsically multi-disciplinary and cross-cutting nature of the subject demands an eclectic range of researchers, both in terms of domain-expertise (e.g. decision sciences, social psychology, sociology) and technical skills (e.g. statistical analysis, mathematical modeling, computer simulations, design o

5 0.51854897 1630 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-18-Postdoc positions at Microsoft Research – NYC

Introduction: Sharad Goel sends this in: Microsoft Research NYC [ http://research.microsoft.com/newyork/ ] seeks outstanding applicants for 2-year postdoctoral researcher positions. We welcome applicants with a strong academic record in one of the following areas: * Computational social science: http://research.microsoft.com/cssnyc * Online experimental social science: http://research.microsoft.com/oess_nyc * Algorithmic economics and market design: http://research.microsoft.com/algorithmic-economics/ * Machine learning: http://research.microsoft.com/mlnyc/ We will also consider applicants in other focus areas of the lab, including information retrieval, and behavioral & empirical economics. Additional information about these areas is included below. Please submit all application materials by January 11, 2013. ———- COMPUTATIONAL SOCIAL SCIENCE http://research.microsoft.com/cssnyc With an increasing amount of data on every aspect of our daily activities — from what we buy, to wh

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Introduction: Ido Rosen pointed me to this page by Mike Kamermans.

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Introduction: Word count stats from the Google books database prove that Bayesianism is expanding faster than the universe. A n-gram is a tuple of n words.

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Introduction: So. Farewell then Dennis Lindley. You held the Hard line on Bayesianism When others Had doubts. And you share The name of a famous Paradox. What is your subjective Prior now? We can only Infer. R. A. Thribb (17 1/2) P.S.

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Introduction: This blog by J. Robert Lennon on abandoned novels made me think of the more general topic of abandoned projects. I seem to recall George V. Higgins writing that he’d written and discarded 14 novels or so before publishing The Friends of Eddie Coyle. I haven’t abandoned any novels but I’ve abandoned lots of research projects (and also have started various projects that there’s no way I’ll finish). If you think about the decisions involved, it really has to be that way. You learn while you’re working on a project whether it’s worth continuing. Sometimes I’ve put in the hard work and pushed a project to completion, published the article, and then I think . . . what was the point? The modal number of citations of our articles is zero, etc.

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