andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1239 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Someone pointed me to this forthcoming article in the journal Nutrition by J. F. Lee et al. It looks pretty cool. I’m glad that someone went to the effort of performing this careful study. Regular readers will know that I’ve been waiting for this one for awhile. In case you can’t read the article through the paywall, here’s the abstract: Background: Under a widely-accepted theory of caloric balance, any individual has a set-point weight and will find it uncomfortable and typically unsustainable to keep his or her weight below that point. Set-points have evidently been increasing over the past few decades in the United States and other countries, leading to a public-health crisis of obesity. In an n=1 study, Roberts (2004, 2006) proposed an intervention to lower the set-point via daily consumption of unflavored sugar water or vegetable oil. Objective: To evaluate weight-loss outcomes under the diet proposed by Roberts (2004, 2006). Design: Randomized clinica
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1 Someone pointed me to this forthcoming article in the journal Nutrition by J. [sent-1, score-0.119]
2 I’m glad that someone went to the effort of performing this careful study. [sent-5, score-0.288]
3 Regular readers will know that I’ve been waiting for this one for awhile. [sent-6, score-0.105]
4 In case you can’t read the article through the paywall, here’s the abstract: Background: Under a widely-accepted theory of caloric balance, any individual has a set-point weight and will find it uncomfortable and typically unsustainable to keep his or her weight below that point. [sent-7, score-0.77]
5 Set-points have evidently been increasing over the past few decades in the United States and other countries, leading to a public-health crisis of obesity. [sent-8, score-0.305]
6 In an n=1 study, Roberts (2004, 2006) proposed an intervention to lower the set-point via daily consumption of unflavored sugar water or vegetable oil. [sent-9, score-1.153]
7 Objective: To evaluate weight-loss outcomes under the diet proposed by Roberts (2004, 2006). [sent-10, score-0.393]
8 Design: Randomized clinical trial with two active arms and one control arm. [sent-11, score-0.425]
9 Daily diaries and self-measurements and monthly laboratory measurements. [sent-12, score-0.381]
10 Participants: 90 healthy volunteers, aged 24-64, recruited in the northeastern United States. [sent-13, score-0.542]
11 Results: Participants differed in outcome measurements after two weeks, one month, six months, and P. [sent-14, score-0.317]
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Introduction: Someone pointed me to this forthcoming article in the journal Nutrition by J. F. Lee et al. It looks pretty cool. I’m glad that someone went to the effort of performing this careful study. Regular readers will know that I’ve been waiting for this one for awhile. In case you can’t read the article through the paywall, here’s the abstract: Background: Under a widely-accepted theory of caloric balance, any individual has a set-point weight and will find it uncomfortable and typically unsustainable to keep his or her weight below that point. Set-points have evidently been increasing over the past few decades in the United States and other countries, leading to a public-health crisis of obesity. In an n=1 study, Roberts (2004, 2006) proposed an intervention to lower the set-point via daily consumption of unflavored sugar water or vegetable oil. Objective: To evaluate weight-loss outcomes under the diet proposed by Roberts (2004, 2006). Design: Randomized clinica
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Introduction: This post is by Phil. A little over three years ago I wrote a post about exercise and weight loss in which I described losing a fair amount of weight due to (I believe) an exercise regime, with no effort to change my diet; this contradicted the prediction of studies that had recently been released. The comment thread on that post is quite interesting: a lot of people had had similar experiences — losing weight, or keeping it off, with an exercise program that includes very short periods of exercise at maximal intensity — while other people expressed some skepticism about my claims. Some commenters said that I risked injury; others said it was too early to judge anything because my weight loss might not last. The people who predicted injury were right: running the curve during a 200m sprint a month or two after that post, I strained my Achilles tendon. Nothing really serious, but it did keep me off the track for a couple of months, and rather than go back to sprinting I switched t
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Introduction: Visual Economics shows statistics on average food consumption in America: My brief feedback is that water is confounded with these results. They should have subtracted water content from the weight of all dietary items, as it inflates the proportion of milk, vegetable and fruit items that contain more water. They did that for soda (which is represented as sugar/corn syrup), amplifying the inconsistency. Time Magazine had a beautiful gallery that visualizes diets around the world in a more appealing way.
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Introduction: Sociologist Fabio Rojas reports on “a conversation I [Rojas] have had a few times with statisticians”: Rojas: “What does your research tell us about a sample of, say, a few hundred cases?” Statistician: “That’s not important. My result works as n–> 00.” Rojas: “Sure, that’s a fine mathematical result, but I have to estimate the model with, like, totally finite data. I need inference, not limits. Maybe the estimate doesn’t work out so well for small n.” Statistician: “Sure, but if you have a few million cases, it’ll work in the limit.” Rojas: “Whoa. Have you ever collected, like, real world network data? A million cases is hard to get.” The conversation continues in this frustrating vein. Rojas writes: This illustrates a fundamental issue in statistics (and other sciences). One you formalize a model and work mathematically, you are tempted to focus on what is mathematically interesting instead of the underlying problem motivating the science. . . . We have the sam
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Introduction: This post is by Phil Price. The New York Times recently ran an article entitled “How Exercise Can Help Us Eat Less,” which begins with this: “Strenuous exercise seems to dull the urge to eat afterward better than gentler workouts, several new studies show, adding to a growing body of science suggesting that intense exercise may have unique benefits.” The article is based on a couple of recent studies in which moderately overweight volunteers participated in different types of exercise, and had their food intake monitored at a subsequent meal. The article also says “[The volunteers] also displayed significantly lower levels of the hormone ghrelin, which is known to stimulate appetite, and elevated levels of both blood lactate and blood sugar, which have been shown to lessen the drive to eat, after the most vigorous interval session than after the other workouts. And the appetite-suppressing effect of the highly intense intervals lingered into the next day, according to food diarie
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Introduction: Someone pointed me to this forthcoming article in the journal Nutrition by J. F. Lee et al. It looks pretty cool. I’m glad that someone went to the effort of performing this careful study. Regular readers will know that I’ve been waiting for this one for awhile. In case you can’t read the article through the paywall, here’s the abstract: Background: Under a widely-accepted theory of caloric balance, any individual has a set-point weight and will find it uncomfortable and typically unsustainable to keep his or her weight below that point. Set-points have evidently been increasing over the past few decades in the United States and other countries, leading to a public-health crisis of obesity. In an n=1 study, Roberts (2004, 2006) proposed an intervention to lower the set-point via daily consumption of unflavored sugar water or vegetable oil. Objective: To evaluate weight-loss outcomes under the diet proposed by Roberts (2004, 2006). Design: Randomized clinica
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Introduction: I read this front-page New York Times article and was immediately suspicious. Here’s the story (from reporter Gina Kolata): Could exercise actually be bad for some healthy people? A well-known group of researchers, including one who helped write the scientific paper justifying national guidelines that promote exercise for all, say the answer may be a qualified yes. By analyzing data from six rigorous exercise studies involving 1,687 people, the group found that about 10 percent actually got worse on at least one of the measures related to heart disease: blood pressure and levels of insulin, HDL cholesterol or triglycerides. About 7 percent got worse on at least two measures. And the researchers say they do not know why. “It is bizarre,” said Claude Bouchard, lead author of the paper , published on Wednesday in the journal PLoS One . . . Dr. Michael Lauer, director of the Division of Cardiovascular Sciences at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, the lead federal
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Introduction: Hank Aaron at the Brookings Institution, who knows a lot more about policy than I do, had some interesting comments on the recent New York Times article about problems with the Dartmouth health care atlas. which I discussed a few hours ago . Aaron writes that much of the criticism in that newspaper article was off-base, but that there are real difficulties in translating the Dartmouth results (finding little relation between spending and quality of care) to cost savings in the real world. Aaron writes: The Dartmouth research, showing huge variation in the use of various medical procedures and large variations in per patient spending under Medicare, has been a revelation and a useful one. There is no way to explain such variation on medical grounds and it is problematic. But readers, including my former colleague Orszag, have taken an oversimplistic view of what the numbers mean and what to do about them. There are three really big problems with the common interpreta
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Introduction: Someone pointed me to this forthcoming article in the journal Nutrition by J. F. Lee et al. It looks pretty cool. I’m glad that someone went to the effort of performing this careful study. Regular readers will know that I’ve been waiting for this one for awhile. In case you can’t read the article through the paywall, here’s the abstract: Background: Under a widely-accepted theory of caloric balance, any individual has a set-point weight and will find it uncomfortable and typically unsustainable to keep his or her weight below that point. Set-points have evidently been increasing over the past few decades in the United States and other countries, leading to a public-health crisis of obesity. In an n=1 study, Roberts (2004, 2006) proposed an intervention to lower the set-point via daily consumption of unflavored sugar water or vegetable oil. Objective: To evaluate weight-loss outcomes under the diet proposed by Roberts (2004, 2006). Design: Randomized clinica
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Introduction: I haven’t linked to the Baby Name Wizard in awhile. . . . Laura Wattenberg takes a look at the question , “Does a hard-to-pronounce baby name hurt you?” Critical thinking without “debunking”—this is the way to go.
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Introduction: When Sonia Sotomayor was nominated for the Supreme Court, and there was some discussion of having 6 Roman Catholics on the court at the same time, I posted the following historical graph: It’s time for an update: It’s still gonna take awhile for the Catholics to catch up. . . . And this one might be relevant too: It looks as if Jews and men have been overrepresented, also Episcopalians (which, as I noted earlier, are not necessarily considered Protestant in terms of religious doctrine but which I counted as such for the ethnic categorization). Religion is an interesting political variable because it’s nominally about religious belief but typically seems to be more about ethnicity.
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Introduction: My econ dept colleague Joseph Stiglitz suggests that financial fraudsters be sent to prison. He points out that the usual penalty–million-dollar fines–just isn’t enough for crimes whose rewards can be in the hundreds of millions of dollars. That all makes sense, but why do the options have to be: 1. No punishment 2. A fine with little punishment or deterrent value 3. Prison. What’s the point of putting nonviolent criminals in prison? As I’ve said before , I’d prefer if the government just took all these convicted thieves’ assets along with 95% of their salary for several years, made them do community service (sorting bottles and cans at the local dump, perhaps; a financier should be good at this sort of thing, no?), etc. If restriction of personal freedom is judged be part of the sentence, they could be given some sort of electronic tag that would send a message to the police if you are ever more than 3 miles from your home. And a curfew so you have to stay home bet
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Introduction: Miguel Paz writes : Poderomedia Foundation and PinLatam are launching OpenDataLatinoamerica.org, a regional data repository to free data and use it on Hackathons and other activities by HacksHackers chapters and other organizations. We are doing this because the road to the future of news has been littered with lost datasets. A day or so after every hackathon and meeting where a group has come together to analyze, compare and understand a particular set of data, someone tries to remember where the successful files were stored. Too often, no one is certain. Therefore with Mariano Blejman we realized that we need a central repository where you can share the data that you have proved to be reliable: OpenData Latinoamerica, which we are leading as ICFJ Knight International Journalism Fellows. If you work in Latin America or Central America your organization can take part in OpenDataLatinoamerica.org. To apply, go to the website and answer a simple form agreeing to meet the standard
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