andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2014 andrew_gelman_stats-2014-2317 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: The new book titled: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science is now available for download . The official description makes the book sound pretty stuffy: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science, commissioned by the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) to celebrate its 50th anniversary and the International Year of Statistics, will be published in April by Taylor & Francis/CRC Press. Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians, the book showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance for future statisticians. Contributors are past COPSS award honorees. But it actually has lots of good stuff, including the chapter by Tibshirani which I discussed last year (in the context of the “bet on sparsity principle”), and chapters by XL and other fun people. Also my own chapter, How do we choo
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1 The new book titled: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science is now available for download . [sent-1, score-0.343]
2 Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians, the book showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance for future statisticians. [sent-3, score-2.112]
3 But it actually has lots of good stuff, including the chapter by Tibshirani which I discussed last year (in the context of the “bet on sparsity principle”), and chapters by XL and other fun people. [sent-5, score-0.673]
4 Also my own chapter, How do we choose our default methods? [sent-6, score-0.176]
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same-blog 1 1.0000002 2317 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-04-Honored oldsters write about statistics
Introduction: The new book titled: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science is now available for download . The official description makes the book sound pretty stuffy: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science, commissioned by the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) to celebrate its 50th anniversary and the International Year of Statistics, will be published in April by Taylor & Francis/CRC Press. Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians, the book showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance for future statisticians. Contributors are past COPSS award honorees. But it actually has lots of good stuff, including the chapter by Tibshirani which I discussed last year (in the context of the “bet on sparsity principle”), and chapters by XL and other fun people. Also my own chapter, How do we choo
2 0.17912871 2136 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-16-Whither the “bet on sparsity principle” in a nonsparse world?
Introduction: Rob Tibshirani writes : Hastie et al. (2001) coined the informal “Bet on Sparsity” principle. The l1 methods assume that the truth is sparse, in some basis. If the assumption holds true, then the parameters can be efficiently estimated using l1 penalties. If the assumption does not hold—so that the truth is dense—then no method will be able to recover the underlying model without a large amount of data per parameter. I’ve earlier expressed my full and sincere appreciation for Hastie and Tibshirani’s work in this area. Now I’d like to briefly comment on the above snippet. The question is, how do we think about the “bet on sparsity” principle in a world where the truth is dense? I’m thinking here of social science, where no effects are clean and no coefficient is zero (see page 960 of this article or various blog discussions in the past few years), where every contrast is meaningful—but some of these contrasts might be lost in the noise with any realistic size of data.
3 0.17007847 1859 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-16-How do we choose our default methods?
Introduction: I was asked to write an article for the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) 50th anniversary volume. Here it is (it’s labeled as “Chapter 1,” which isn’t right; that’s just what came out when I used the template that was supplied). The article begins as follows: The field of statistics continues to be divided into competing schools of thought. In theory one might imagine choosing the uniquely best method for each problem as it arises, but in practice we choose for ourselves (and recom- mend to others) default principles, models, and methods to be used in a wide variety of settings. This article briefly considers the informal criteria we use to decide what methods to use and what principles to apply in statistics problems. And then I follow up with these sections: Statistics: the science of defaults Ways of knowing The pluralist’s dilemma And here’s the concluding paragraph: Statistics is a young science in which progress is being made in many
4 0.14401773 316 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-03-Suggested reading for a prospective statistician?
Introduction: Sam Jessup writes: I am writing to ask you to recommend papers, books–anything that comes to mind that might give a prospective statistician some sense of what the future holds for statistics (and statisticians). I have a liberal arts background with an emphasis in mathematics. It seems like this is an exciting time to be a statistician, but that’s just from the outside looking in. I’m curious about your perspective on the future of the discipline. Any recommendations? My favorite is still the book, “Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown,” first edition. (I actually have a chapter in the latest (fourth) edition, but I think the first edition (from 1972, I believe) is still the best.
5 0.12798421 2151 andrew gelman stats-2013-12-27-Should statistics have a Nobel prize?
Introduction: Xiao-Li says yes: The most compelling reason for having highly visible awards in any field is to enhance its ability to attract future talent. Virtually all the media and public attention our profession received in recent years has been on the utility of statistics in all walks of life. We are extremely happy for and proud of this recognition—it is long overdue. However, the media and public have given much more attention to the Fields Medal than to the COPSS Award, even though the former has hardly been about direct or even indirect impact on everyday life. Why this difference? . . . these awards arouse media and public interest by featuring how ingenious the awardees are and how difficult the problems they solved, much like how conquering Everest bestows admiration not because the admirers care or even know much about Everest itself but because it represents the ultimate physical feat. In this sense, the biggest winner of the Fields Medal is mathematics itself: enticing the brig
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11 0.099246129 1119 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-15-Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award
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14 0.08563228 2084 andrew gelman stats-2013-11-01-Doing Data Science: What’s it all about?
15 0.084440894 1564 andrew gelman stats-2012-11-06-Choose your default, or your default will choose you (election forecasting edition)
16 0.076458752 6 andrew gelman stats-2010-04-27-Jelte Wicherts lays down the stats on IQ
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19 0.070508733 1642 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-28-New book by Stef van Buuren on missing-data imputation looks really good!
20 0.069432244 678 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-25-Democrats do better among the most and least educated groups
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Introduction: The new book titled: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science is now available for download . The official description makes the book sound pretty stuffy: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science, commissioned by the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) to celebrate its 50th anniversary and the International Year of Statistics, will be published in April by Taylor & Francis/CRC Press. Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians, the book showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance for future statisticians. Contributors are past COPSS award honorees. But it actually has lots of good stuff, including the chapter by Tibshirani which I discussed last year (in the context of the “bet on sparsity principle”), and chapters by XL and other fun people. Also my own chapter, How do we choo
2 0.74917573 557 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-05-Call for book proposals
Introduction: Rob Calver writes: Large and complex datasets are becoming prevalent in the social and behavioral sciences and statistical methods are crucial for the analysis and interpretation of such data. The Chapman & Hall/CRC Statistics in the Social and Behavioral Sciences Series aims to capture new developments in statistical methodology with particular relevance to applications in the social and behavioral sciences. It seeks to promote appropriate use of statistical, econometric and psychometric methods in these applied sciences by publishing a broad range of monographs, textbooks and handbooks. The scope of the series is wide, including applications of statistical methodology in sociology, psychology, economics, education, marketing research, political science, criminology, public policy, demography, survey methodology and official statistics. The titles included in the series are designed to appeal to applied statisticians, as well as students, researchers and practitioners from the
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Introduction: I was asked to write an article for the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) 50th anniversary volume. Here it is (it’s labeled as “Chapter 1,” which isn’t right; that’s just what came out when I used the template that was supplied). The article begins as follows: The field of statistics continues to be divided into competing schools of thought. In theory one might imagine choosing the uniquely best method for each problem as it arises, but in practice we choose for ourselves (and recom- mend to others) default principles, models, and methods to be used in a wide variety of settings. This article briefly considers the informal criteria we use to decide what methods to use and what principles to apply in statistics problems. And then I follow up with these sections: Statistics: the science of defaults Ways of knowing The pluralist’s dilemma And here’s the concluding paragraph: Statistics is a young science in which progress is being made in many
4 0.71406454 590 andrew gelman stats-2011-02-25-Good introductory book for statistical computation?
Introduction: Geen Tomko asks: Can you recommend a good introductory book for statistical computation? Mostly, something that would help make it easier in collecting and analyzing data from student test scores. I don’t know. Usually, when people ask for a starter statistics book, my recommendation (beyond my own books) is The Statistical Sleuth. But that’s not really a computation book. ARM isn’t really a statistical computation book either. But the statistical computation books that I’ve seen don’t seems so relevant for the analyses that Tomko is looking for. For example, the R book of Venables and Ripley focuses on nonparametric statistics, which is fine but seems a bit esoteric for these purposes. Does anyone have any suggestions?
5 0.70343477 1119 andrew gelman stats-2012-01-15-Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award
Introduction: The American Statistical Association is seeking nominations for its annual Excellence in Statistical Reporting Award . The award was created in 2004 to encourage and recognize members of the communications media who have best displayed an informed interest in the science of statistics and its role in public life. The award can be given for a single statistical article or for a body of work. Former winners of the award include: Felix Salmon , financial blogger, 2010; Sharon Begley , Newsweek, 2009; Mark Buchanan, New York Times, 2008; John Berry, Bloomberg News, 2005; and Gina Kolata, New York Times, 2004. If anyone has any suggestions for the 2012 award, feel free to post in the comments or email me.
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same-blog 1 0.94210005 2317 andrew gelman stats-2014-05-04-Honored oldsters write about statistics
Introduction: The new book titled: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science is now available for download . The official description makes the book sound pretty stuffy: Past, Present, and Future of Statistical Science, commissioned by the Committee of Presidents of Statistical Societies (COPSS) to celebrate its 50th anniversary and the International Year of Statistics, will be published in April by Taylor & Francis/CRC Press. Through the contributions of a distinguished group of 50 statisticians, the book showcases the breadth and vibrancy of statistics, describes current challenges and new opportunities, highlights the exciting future of statistical science, and provides guidance for future statisticians. Contributors are past COPSS award honorees. But it actually has lots of good stuff, including the chapter by Tibshirani which I discussed last year (in the context of the “bet on sparsity principle”), and chapters by XL and other fun people. Also my own chapter, How do we choo
2 0.88591868 680 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-26-My talk at Berkeley on Wednesday
Introduction: Something on Applied Bayesian Statistics April 27, 4:10-5 p.m., 1011 Evans Hall I will deliver one of the following three talks: 1. Of beauty, sex, and power: Statistical challenges in estimating small effects 2. Why we (usually) don’t worry about multiple comparisons 3. Parameterization and Bayesian modeling Whoever shows up on time to the seminar gets to vote, and I’ll give the talk that gets the most votes.
3 0.87925488 1192 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-02-These people totally don’t know what Chance magazine is all about
Introduction: I received the following unsolicited email, subject line “Chance Magazine – Comedy Showcase”: Hi Andrew, Hope you’re doing well. I’m writing to let you know that we will be putting on an industry showcase at the brand new Laughing Devil Comedy Club (4738 Vernon Blvd. Long Island City) on Thursday, February 9th at 8:00 PM. If you’re unfamiliar, it’s one stop on the 7 train from Grand Central. Following the showcase, the club will stay open for an industry mingle/happy hour with drink specials and all the business card exchanging you can hope for. This showcase will feature 9 of our best: Steve Hofstetter’s latest album hit #1 in the world. He’ll be hosting Collin Moulton (Showtime Half Hour Special), Tony Deyo (Aspen Comedy Festival), Tom Simmons (Winner of the SF International Comedy Festival), Marc Ryan (Host of Mudslingers), Mike Trainor (TruTV), Jessi Campbell (CMT), Danny Browning (Bob & Tom), and Joe Zimmerman (Sirius/XM). I would love for you (and anyone you’d like to
4 0.87509334 1216 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-17-Modeling group-level predictors in a multilevel regression
Introduction: Trey Causey writes: Do you have suggestions as to model selection strategies akin to Bayesian model averaging for multilevel models when level-2 inputs are of substantive interest? I [Causey] have seen plenty of R packages and procedures for non-multilevel models, and tried the glmulti package but found that it did not perform well with more than a few level-2 variables. My quick answer is: with a name like that, you should really be fitting three-level models! My longer answer is: regular readers will be unsurprised to hear that I’m no fan of Bayesian model averaging . Instead I’d prefer to bite the bullet and assign an informative prior distribution on these coefficients. I don’t have a great example of such an analysis but I’m more and more thinking that this is the way to go. I don’t see the point in aiming for the intermediate goal of pruning the predictors; I’d rather have a procedure that includes prior information on the predictors and their interactions.
5 0.86940026 1200 andrew gelman stats-2012-03-06-Some economists are skeptical about microfoundations
Introduction: A few months ago, I wrote : Economists seem to rely heavily on a sort of folk psychology, a relic of the 1920s-1950s in which people calculate utilities (or act as if they are doing so) in order to make decisions. A central tenet of economics is that inference or policy recommendation be derived from first principles from this folk-psychology model. This just seems silly to me, as if astronomers justified all their calculations with an underlying appeal to Aristotle’s mechanics. Or maybe the better analogy is the Stalinist era in which everything had to be connected to Marxist principles (followed, perhaps, by an equationful explanation of how the world can be interpreted as if Marxism were valid). Mark Thoma and Paul Krugman seem to agree with me on this one (as does my Barnard colleague Rajiv Sethi ). They don’t go so far as to identify utility etc as folk psychology, but maybe that will come next. P.S. Perhaps this will clarify: In a typical economics research pap
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