andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2013 andrew_gelman_stats-2013-1717 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: On this blog I’ve occasionally written about the problems that arise when economists act as amateur psychologists. But the problem can go the other way, too. For example, consider this blog by Berit Brogaard and Kristian Marlow ( link from Abbas Raza). Brogaard and Marlow give several amusing stories about ripoffs (a restaurant that scams customers into buying expensive bottles of wine, a hairdresser that sucks customers into unnecessary treatments, a ghostwriter who takes thousands of dollars in payments and doesn’t do the job, etc.). Then they ask, “How did it happen? Why did you act in this impulsive way? Why didn’t you learn your lesson the first time around? Do you have some kind of brain damage?” They continue with some discussion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior insula, etc etc etc., and then conclude with the following advice: Is there anything we can do to avoid these moments of crazy decision-making? Yes but only by intentionally turning on our
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1 On this blog I’ve occasionally written about the problems that arise when economists act as amateur psychologists. [sent-1, score-0.305]
2 Brogaard and Marlow give several amusing stories about ripoffs (a restaurant that scams customers into buying expensive bottles of wine, a hairdresser that sucks customers into unnecessary treatments, a ghostwriter who takes thousands of dollars in payments and doesn’t do the job, etc. [sent-4, score-1.425]
3 Why didn’t you learn your lesson the first time around? [sent-8, score-0.081]
4 ” They continue with some discussion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior insula, etc etc etc. [sent-10, score-0.402]
5 , and then conclude with the following advice: Is there anything we can do to avoid these moments of crazy decision-making? [sent-11, score-0.162]
6 Yes but only by intentionally turning on our hypercritical attitude before entering potential sales deals. [sent-12, score-0.242]
7 Make it a habit to take a breather and think about a purchase before completing it. [sent-13, score-0.267]
8 When the waiter brings a more expensive wine, ask to see the wine list again. [sent-14, score-0.725]
9 You might end up going with the more expensive wine but looking over the list will give you a chance to think. [sent-15, score-0.723]
10 When your hairdresser all of a sudden wants to make you his regular on Tuesdays, say that you will call in and make the next appointment. [sent-16, score-0.551]
11 Perhaps your next appointment will be Tuesday, but you will have had a chance to make your own decision. [sent-17, score-0.321]
12 Economists talk about the best alternative to a negotiated agreement. [sent-22, score-0.11]
13 I think in many of these fraud situations, a key problem is that the person getting ripped off is afraid of losing out. [sent-23, score-0.537]
14 Rather than just giving generic advice to slow down, I’d suggest a more specific recommendation, that in a situation where there is a choice, don’t be afraid of saying no. [sent-24, score-0.303]
15 I’m guessing that a key part of people getting suckered is that they’re afraid of losing out on some opportunity. [sent-26, score-0.441]
16 I’m reminded of a story from a couple years ago where a science writer described certain political behavior as the product of irrationality and “unconscious bias. [sent-27, score-0.091]
17 ” In that case, it was political science rather than economics that was being neglected in favor of purely psychological explanations. [sent-28, score-0.093]
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Introduction: On this blog I’ve occasionally written about the problems that arise when economists act as amateur psychologists. But the problem can go the other way, too. For example, consider this blog by Berit Brogaard and Kristian Marlow ( link from Abbas Raza). Brogaard and Marlow give several amusing stories about ripoffs (a restaurant that scams customers into buying expensive bottles of wine, a hairdresser that sucks customers into unnecessary treatments, a ghostwriter who takes thousands of dollars in payments and doesn’t do the job, etc.). Then they ask, “How did it happen? Why did you act in this impulsive way? Why didn’t you learn your lesson the first time around? Do you have some kind of brain damage?” They continue with some discussion of the ventromedial prefrontal cortex, the anterior insula, etc etc etc., and then conclude with the following advice: Is there anything we can do to avoid these moments of crazy decision-making? Yes but only by intentionally turning on our
Introduction: The title of this blog post quotes the second line of the abstract of Goldstein et al.’s much ballyhooed 2008 tech report, Do More Expensive Wines Taste Better? Evidence from a Large Sample of Blind Tastings . The first sentence of the abstract is Individuals who are unaware of the price do not derive more enjoyment from more expensive wine. Perhaps not surprisingly, given the easy target wine snobs make, the popular press has picked up on the first sentence of the tech report. For example, the Freakonomics blog/radio entry of the same name quotes the first line, ignores the qualification, then concludes Wishing you the happiest of holiday seasons, and urging you to spend $15 instead of $50 on your next bottle of wine. Go ahead, take the money you save and blow it on the lottery. In case you’re wondering about whether to buy me a cheap or expensive bottle of wine, keep in mind I’ve had classical “wine training”. After ten minutes of training with some side by
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Introduction: This came in the inbox today: Dear Dr. Gelman, GenWay recently found your article titled “Multiple imputation for model checking: completed-data plots with missing and latent data.” (Biometrics. 2005 Mar;61(1):74-85.) and thought you might be interested in learning about our superior quality signaling proteins. GenWay prides itself on being a leader in customer service aiming to exceed your expectations with the quality and price of our products. With more than 60,000 reagents backed by our outstanding guarantee you are sure to find the products you have been searching for. Please feel free to visit the following resource pages: * Apoptosis Pathway (product list) * Adipocytokine (product list) * Cell Cycle Pathway (product list) * Jak STAT (product list) * GnRH (product list) * MAPK (product list) * mTOR (product list) * T Cell Receptor (product list) * TGF-beta (product list) * Wnt (product list) * View All Pathways
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