andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1260 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Phil points to this post by Brett Keller and writes: I [Phil] haven’t seen Hunger Games or read the book(s?). It’s sort of nice that people do this kind of thing but might be even nicer if they dedicated this sort of amateur data analysis to real-world problems. I dunno. I think it’s always good to get practice. Analyzing a book/movie is like doing sports statistics; it can keep you in shape.
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1 Phil points to this post by Brett Keller and writes: I [Phil] haven’t seen Hunger Games or read the book(s? [sent-1, score-0.381]
2 It’s sort of nice that people do this kind of thing but might be even nicer if they dedicated this sort of amateur data analysis to real-world problems. [sent-3, score-1.805]
3 Analyzing a book/movie is like doing sports statistics; it can keep you in shape. [sent-6, score-0.348]
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Introduction: Phil points to this post by Brett Keller and writes: I [Phil] haven’t seen Hunger Games or read the book(s?). It’s sort of nice that people do this kind of thing but might be even nicer if they dedicated this sort of amateur data analysis to real-world problems. I dunno. I think it’s always good to get practice. Analyzing a book/movie is like doing sports statistics; it can keep you in shape.
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Introduction: Karl Broman writes : I [Karl] personally would avoid sports entirely, as I view the subject to be insufficiently serious. . . . Certainly lots of statisticians are interested in sports. . . . And I’m not completely uninterested in sports: I like to watch football, particularly Nebraska, Green Bay, and Baltimore, and to see Notre Dame or any team from Florida or Texas lose. But statistics about sports? Yawn. As a person who loves sports, statistics, and sports statistics, I have a few thoughts: 1. Not everyone likes sports, and even fewer are interested in any particular sport. It’s ok to use sports examples, but don’t delude yourself into thinking that everyone in the class cares about it. 2. Don’t forget foreign students. A lot of them don’t even know the rules of kickball, fer chrissake! 3. Of the students who care about a sport, there will be a minority who really care. We had some serious basketball fans in our class last year. 4. I think the best solution
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Introduction: I was stunned this from Jenny Davidson about mystery writers: The crime fiction community is smart and adult and welcoming, and so many good books are being written (Lee Child was mentioning his peer group – i.e. they were the new kids around the same tie – being Michael Connelly, Robert Crais, Dennis Lehane, Laura Lippman – the list speaks for itself) . . . Why was I stunned? Because just a few days earlier I had a look at a book by Robert Crais. It just happened that Phil, when he was visiting, had finished this book (which he described as “pretty good”) and left it with me so he wouldn’t have to take it back with him. I’d never heard of Crais, but it had pretty amazing blurbs on the cover and Phil recommended it, so I took a look. It was bad. From page 1 it was bad. It was like a bad cop show. I could see the seams where the sentences were stitched together. I could see how somebody might like this sort of book, but I certainly can’t understand the blurbs or the i
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Introduction: This gets my vote for the worst statistical graphic I (Phil) have seen this year. If you’ve got a worse one, put a link in the comments. “Credit” for this one goes to “Peter and Maria Hoey (Source: Tommy McCall/Environmental Law Institute).”
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Introduction: Hey, we all know the answer: “correlation does not imply causation”—but of course life is more complicated than that. As philosophers, economists, statisticians, and others have repeatedly noted, most of our information about the world is observational not experimental, yet we manage to draw causal conclusions all the time. Sure, some of these conclusions are wrong (more often than 5% of the time, I’m sure) but that’s an accepted part of life. Challenges in this regard arise in the design of a study, in the statistical analysis, in how you write it up for a peer-reviewed journal, and finally in how you present it to the world. School sports and life outcomes An interesting case of all this came up recently in a post on Freakonomics that pointed to a post on Deadspin that pointed to a research article . The claim was that “sports participation [in high school] causes women to be less likely to be religious . . . more likely to have children . . . more likely to be singl
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Introduction: Phil points to this post by Brett Keller and writes: I [Phil] haven’t seen Hunger Games or read the book(s?). It’s sort of nice that people do this kind of thing but might be even nicer if they dedicated this sort of amateur data analysis to real-world problems. I dunno. I think it’s always good to get practice. Analyzing a book/movie is like doing sports statistics; it can keep you in shape.
2 0.7270382 881 andrew gelman stats-2011-08-30-Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos, together again
Introduction: Today I was reminded of a riddle from junior high: Q: What do you get when you cross an elephant with peanut butter? A: Peanut butter that never forgets, or an elephant that sticks to the roof of your mouth. The occasion was a link from Tyler Cowen to a new book by Garry Kasparov and . . . Peter Thiel. Kasparov we all know about. I still remember how he pulled out a victory in the last game of his tournament with Karpov. Just amazing: he had to win the game, a draw would not be enough. Both players knew that Kasparov had to win. And he did it. A feat as impressive as Kirk Gibson’s off-the-bench game-winning home run in the 1987 Series. Peter Theil is a more obscure figure. He’s been featured a couple of times on this blog and comes across as your typical overconfident rich dude. It’s an odd combination, sort of like what you might get if Rickey Henderson and Peter Angelos were to write a book about how to reform baseball. Cowen writes, “How can I not pre-orde
3 0.72658694 623 andrew gelman stats-2011-03-21-Baseball’s greatest fielders
Introduction: Someone just stopped by and dropped off a copy of the book Wizardry: Baseball’s All-time Greatest Fielders Revealed, by Michael Humphreys. I don’t have much to say about the topic–I did see Brooks Robinson play, but I don’t remember any fancy plays. I must have seen Mark Belanger but I don’t really recall. Ozzie Smith was cool but I saw only him on TV. The most impressive thing I ever saw live was Rickey Henderson stealing a base. The best thing about that was that everyone was expecting him to steal the base, and he still was able to do it. But that wasn’t fielding either. Anyway, Humphreys was nice enough to give me a copy of his book, and since I can’t say much (I didn’t have it in me to study the formulas in detail, nor do I know enough to be able to evaluate them), I might as well say what I can say right away. (Note: Humphreys replies to some of these questions in a comment .) 1. Near the beginning, Humphreys says that 10 runs are worth about 1 win. I’ve always b
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Introduction: I followed the link of commenter “Epanechnikov” to his blog, where I found, among other things, an uncritical discussion of Richard von Mises’s book, “Probability, Statistics and Truth.” The bad news is that, based on the evidence of his book, Mises didn’t seem to understand basic ideas of statistical significance. See here, Or at the very least, he was grossly overconfident (which can perhaps be seen from the brash title of his book). This is not the fault of “Epanechnikov,” but I just thought that people should be careful about taking too seriously the statistical philosophy of someone who didn’t think to do a chi-squared test when it was called for. (This is not a Bayesian/non-Bayesian thing; it’s just basic statistics.)
Introduction: Remember How to Lie With Statistics? It turns out that the author worked for the cigarette companies. John Mashey points to this, from Robert Proctor’s book, “Golden Holocaust: Origins of the Cigarette Catastrophe and the Case for Abolition”: Darrell Huff, author of the wildly popular (and aptly named) How to Lie With Statistics, was paid to testify before Congress in the 1950s and then again in the 1960s, with the assigned task of ridiculing any notion of a cigarette-disease link. On March 22, 1965, Huff testified at hearings on cigarette labeling and advertising, accusing the recent Surgeon General’s report of myriad failures and “fallacies.” Huff peppered his attack with with amusing asides and anecdotes, lampooning spurious correlations like that between the size of Dutch families and the number of storks nesting on rooftops–which proves not that storks bring babies but rather that people with large families tend to have larger houses (which therefore attract more storks).
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1 0.94269121 663 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-15-Happy tax day!
Introduction: Your taxes pay for the research funding that supports the work we do here, some of which appears on this blog and almost all of which is public, free, and open-source. So, to all of the taxpayers out there in the audience: thank you.
2 0.89469886 97 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-18-Economic Disparities and Life Satisfaction in European Regions
Introduction: Grazia Pittau, Roberto Zelli, and I came out with a paper investigating the role of economic variables in predicting regional disparities in reported life satisfaction of European Union citizens. We use multilevel modeling to explicitly account for the hierarchical nature of our data, respondents within regions and countries, and for understanding patterns of variation within and between regions. Here’s what we found: - Personal income matters more in poor regions than in rich regions, a pattern that still holds for regions within the same country. - Being unemployed is negatively associated with life satisfaction even after controlled for income variation. Living in high unemployment regions does not alleviate the unhappiness of being out of work. - After controlling for individual characteristics and modeling interactions, regional differences in life satisfaction still remain. Here’s a quick graph; there’s more in the article:
3 0.89231086 489 andrew gelman stats-2010-12-28-Brow inflation
Introduction: In an article headlined, “Hollywood moves away from middlebrow,” Brooks Barnes writes : As Hollywood plowed into 2010, there was plenty of clinging to the tried and true: humdrum remakes like “The Wolfman” and “The A-Team”; star vehicles like “Killers” with Ashton Kutcher and “The Tourist” with Angelina Jolie and Johnny Depp; and shoddy sequels like “Sex and the City 2.” All arrived at theaters with marketing thunder intended to fill multiplexes on opening weekend, no matter the quality of the film. . . . But the audience pushed back. One by one, these expensive yet middle-of-the-road pictures delivered disappointing results or flat-out flopped. Meanwhile, gambles on original concepts paid off. “Inception,” a complicated thriller about dream invaders, racked up more than $825 million in global ticket sales; “The Social Network” has so far delivered $192 million, a stellar result for a highbrow drama. . . . the message that the year sent about quality and originality is real enoug
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Introduction: Boris Shor in January : the pivotal Senator will now be a Republican, not a Democrat . . . Brown stands to become the pivotal member of the Senate. The New York Times today : The Senate voted on Thursday afternoon to close debate on a far-reaching financial regulatory bill . . . In an interesting twist, the decisive vote was supplied by Senator Scott Brown, the Republican freshman of Massachusetts . . .
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Introduction: Aaron Swartz writes the following, as a lead-in to an argument in favor of vegetarianism: Imagine you were an early settler of what is now the United States. It seems likely you would have killed native Americans. After all, your parents killed them, your siblings killed them, your friends killed them, the leaders of the community killed them, the President killed them. Chances are, you would have killed them too . . . Or if you see nothing wrong with killing native Americans, take the example of slavery. Again, everyone had slaves and probably didn’t think too much about the morality of it. . . . Are these statements true, though? It’s hard for me to believe that most early settlers (from the context, it looks like Swartz is discussing the 1500s-1700s here) killed native Americans. That is, if N is the number of early settlers, and Y is the number of these settlers who killed at least one Indian, I suspect Y/N is much closer to 0 than to 1. Similarly, it’s not even cl
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