andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1471 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Peter Thall writes: Some years ago, after I gave a talk at Columbia that you attended, you told me that you would like to see a decision-theoretic analysis formulated and carried out to completion by Donald Berry, who had been quite vocal for some time about the importance of such a “fully Bayesian” analysis. I do not work with Berry. But, in recent years I have begun to do utility-based clinical trial design. The trial described in the attached paper [by Thall and Hoang Nguyen] enrolled its first child very recently. While the methodology is not terribly sophisticated, I consider this to be one of the most ethical trials that I have designed. The utility was elicited from the two trial PIs. When we had the pre-trial start-up meeting, a third oncologist looked hard at the utility table, and he said that he agreed completely with the numerical utilities. I doubt that this trial will cure this type of brain tumor, but I do think that the design gives the children a better
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1 But, in recent years I have begun to do utility-based clinical trial design. [sent-3, score-0.532]
2 The trial described in the attached paper [by Thall and Hoang Nguyen] enrolled its first child very recently. [sent-4, score-0.624]
3 While the methodology is not terribly sophisticated, I consider this to be one of the most ethical trials that I have designed. [sent-5, score-0.443]
4 The utility was elicited from the two trial PIs. [sent-6, score-0.638]
5 When we had the pre-trial start-up meeting, a third oncologist looked hard at the utility table, and he said that he agreed completely with the numerical utilities. [sent-7, score-0.553]
6 I doubt that this trial will cure this type of brain tumor, but I do think that the design gives the children a better chance than they would get otherwise. [sent-8, score-0.6]
7 Still, I think we can improve this methodology by adding some refinements, and we are working on them now. [sent-9, score-0.232]
8 I indeed have been long interested in seeing a formal analysis balancing the goals of medical research, reducing future mortality and morbidity, saving cost, and reducing the risk to experimental subjects. [sent-10, score-0.93]
9 The risks to present patients are balanced by potential future gains for the lifetime of the new procedure. [sent-11, score-0.604]
10 It’s hard to find an example where the costs and benefits are quantified. [sent-13, score-0.157]
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