andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2012 andrew_gelman_stats-2012-1540 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining

1540 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-18-“Intrade to the 57th power”


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Introduction: David Pennock writes: http://PredictWiseQ.com is our (beta) prediction contest which aims to estimate not just the marginal probabilities of election outcomes this November, but millions of correlations among outcomes as well, like the chance Obama will win both Ohio and Florida, or the chance Romney will win if the September jobs numbers are negative. It’s a working example of a combinatorial prediction market design we published this summer in the conference ACM EC’12. And here’s Pennock’s blog, which supplies more background.


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Introduction: David Pennock writes: http://PredictWiseQ.com is our (beta) prediction contest which aims to estimate not just the marginal probabilities of election outcomes this November, but millions of correlations among outcomes as well, like the chance Obama will win both Ohio and Florida, or the chance Romney will win if the September jobs numbers are negative. It’s a working example of a combinatorial prediction market design we published this summer in the conference ACM EC’12. And here’s Pennock’s blog, which supplies more background.

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Introduction: I recently wrote about the difficulty people have with probabilities, in this case the probability that Obama wins the election. If the probability is reported as 70%, people think Obama is going to win. Actually, though, it just means that Obama is predicted to get about 50.8% of the two-party vote, with an uncertainty of something like 2 percentage points. So, as I wrote, the election really is too close to call in the sense that the predicted vote margin is less than its uncertainty. But . . . when people see a number such as 70%, they tend to attribute too much certainty to it. Especially when the estimated probability has increased from, say 60%. How to get the point across? Commenter HS had what seems like a good suggestion: Say that Obama will win, but there is 25% chance (or whatever) that this prediction is wrong? Same point, just slightly different framing, but somehow, this seems far less incendiary. I like that. Somehow a stated probability of 75% sounds a

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Introduction: Barack Obama’s win has a potentially huge effect on policy. The current budget negotiations will affect the level and direction of government spending and on the mix of taxes paid by different groups of Americans. We can guess that a President Romney would have fought hard against upper-income tax increases. Other areas of long-term impact include the government’s stance on global warming, foreign policy, and the likelihood that Obama will nominate new Supreme Court justices who will uphold the right to abortion announced in Roe v. Wade. When it comes to public opinion, the story is different. The Democrats may well benefit in 2014 and 2016 from the anticipated slow but steady recovery of the economy over the next few years—but, as of November 6, 2012, the parties are essentially tied, with Barack Obama receiving 51% of the two-party vote, compared to Mitt Romney’s 49%, a split comparable to Al Gore’s narrow victory in 2000, Richard Nixon’s in 1968, and John Kennedy’s in 1960.

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Introduction: David Pennock writes: http://PredictWiseQ.com is our (beta) prediction contest which aims to estimate not just the marginal probabilities of election outcomes this November, but millions of correlations among outcomes as well, like the chance Obama will win both Ohio and Florida, or the chance Romney will win if the September jobs numbers are negative. It’s a working example of a combinatorial prediction market design we published this summer in the conference ACM EC’12. And here’s Pennock’s blog, which supplies more background.

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Introduction: 1. I can simultaneously (a) accept that Obama has a 72 percent chance of winning and (b) say the election is too close to call 2. Michael’s a Republican, Susan’s a Democrat 3. The narcissism of the narcissism of small differences 4. Obamanomics: A Counter-counterhistory 5. Not a gaffe 6. Categories influence predictions about individual consistency

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Introduction: The other day we had a fun little discussion in the comments section of the sister blog about the appropriateness of stating forecast probabilities to the nearest tenth of a percentage point. It started when Josh Tucker posted this graph from Nate Silver : My first reaction was: this looks pretty but it’s hyper-precise. I’m a big fan of Nate’s work, but all those little wiggles on the graph can’t really mean anything. And what could it possibly mean to compute this probability to that level of precision? In the comments, people came at me from two directions. From one side, Jeffrey Friedman expressed a hard core attitude that it’s meaningless to give a probability forecast of a unique event: What could it possibly mean, period, given that this election will never be repeated? . . . I know there’s a vast literature on this, but I’m still curious, as a non-statistician, what it could mean for there to be a meaningful 65% probability (as opposed to a non-quantifiab

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Introduction: This post is by Phil Price. Bill Kristol notes that “Four presidents in the last century have won more than 51 percent of the vote twice: Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Reagan and Obama”. I’m not sure why Kristol, a conservative, is promoting the idea that Obama has a mandate, but that’s up to him. I’m more interested in the remarkable bit of cherry-picking that led to this “only four presidents” statistic. There was one way in which Obama’s victory was large: he won the electoral college 332-206. That’s a thrashing. But if you want to claim that Obama has a “popular mandate” — which people seem to interpret as an overwhelming preference of The People such that the opposition is morally obligated to give way — you can’t make that argument based on the electoral college, you have to look at the popular vote. That presents you with a challenge for the 2012 election, since Obama’s 2.7-point margin in the popular vote was the 12th-smallest out of the 57 elections we’ve had. There’s a nice sor

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