andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-928 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: Bigshot establishment dude Peter Orszag thinks bigshot establishment dudes don’t have enough power. (Also politically related but not a rant: Joe McCarthy Versus Powerman and the Debt-Ceiling Destroyers, Part One. )
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2 (Also politically related but not a rant: Joe McCarthy Versus Powerman and the Debt-Ceiling Destroyers, Part One. [sent-2, score-0.285]
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same-blog 1 1.0 928 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-27-Hey, look over here! Another rant!
Introduction: Bigshot establishment dude Peter Orszag thinks bigshot establishment dudes don’t have enough power. (Also politically related but not a rant: Joe McCarthy Versus Powerman and the Debt-Ceiling Destroyers, Part One. )
2 0.18604724 1031 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-27-Richard Stallman and John McCarthy
Introduction: After blogging on quirky software pioneer Richard Stallman , I thought it appropriate to write something about recently deceased quirky software pioneer John McCarthy, who, with the exception of being bearded, seems like he was the personal and political opposite of Stallman. Here’s a page I found of Stallman McCarthy quotes (compiled by Neil Craig). It’s a mixture of the reasonable and the unreasonable (ok, I suppose the same could be said of this blog!). I wonder if he and Stallman ever met and, if so, whether they had an extended conversation. It would be like matter and anti-matter! P.S. I flipped through McCarthy’s pages and found one of my pet peeves. See item 3 here , which sounds so plausible but is in fact not true (at least, not according to the National Election Study). As McCarthy’s Stanford colleague Mo Fiorina can tell you, otherwise well-informed people believe all sorts of things about polarization that aren’t so. Labeling groups of Americans as “
3 0.18063906 1727 andrew gelman stats-2013-02-19-Beef with data
Introduction: Louis Mittel writes: Do you know why David Brooks has such a beef with data? My reply: I have no idea, but I’m happy that we’re now considered the establishment that he has to rebel against!
4 0.17856659 2177 andrew gelman stats-2014-01-19-“The British amateur who debunked the mathematics of happiness”
Introduction: Andrew Anthony tells the excellent story of how Nick Brown, Alan Sokal, and Harris Friedman shot down some particularly silly work in psychology. (“According to the graph, it all came down to a specific ratio of positive emotions to negative emotions. If your ratio was greater than 2.9013 positive emotions to 1 negative emotion you were flourishing in life. If your ratio was less than that number you were languishing.” And, yes, the work they were shooting down really is that bad.) If you want to see what the fuss is about, just google “2.9013.” Here’s an example (from 2012) of an uncritical reporting of the claim, here’s another one from 2010, here’s one from 2011 . . . well, you get the idea. And here’s a quick summary posted by Rolf Zwaan after Brown et al. came out with their paper. I know Sokal and Brown and so this story was not news to me. I didn’t post anything about it on this blog because it seemed like it was getting enough coverage elsewhere. I think Ni
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Introduction: See here for latest rant.
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same-blog 1 0.93580985 928 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-27-Hey, look over here! Another rant!
Introduction: Bigshot establishment dude Peter Orszag thinks bigshot establishment dudes don’t have enough power. (Also politically related but not a rant: Joe McCarthy Versus Powerman and the Debt-Ceiling Destroyers, Part One. )
Introduction: Gur Huberman points to an article on the financial crisis by Bethany McLean, who writes : lthough our understanding of what instigated the 2008 global financial crisis remains at best incomplete, there are a few widely agreed upon contributing factors. One of them is a 2004 rule change by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that allowed investment banks to load up on leverage. This disastrous decision has been cited by a host of prominent economists, including Princeton professor and former Federal Reserve Vice-Chairman Alan Blinder and Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz. It has even been immortalized in Hollywood, figuring into the dark financial narrative that propelled the Academy Award-winning film Inside Job. . . . Here’s just one problem with this story line: It’s not true. Nor is it hard to prove that. Look at the historical leverage of the big five investment banks — Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Merrill Lynch, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. The Government Accou
Introduction: In the interview we discussed a couple months ago, Steven Levitt said: I [Levitt] voted for Obama [in 2008] because I wanted to tell my grandchildren that I voted for Obama. And I thought that he would be the greatest president in history. This surprised me. I’d assumed Levitt was a McCain supporter! Why? Because in October, 2008, he wrote that he “loved” the claim by conservative University of Chicago economist Casey Mulligan that “the current unemployment rate of 6.1 percent is not alarming.” I’d read that at the time, perhaps incorrectly, as Mulligan making an election-season pitch that the economy was doing just fine (Mulligan: “if you are not employed by the financial industry (94 percent of you are not), don’t worry”) hence implicitly an argument for a Republican vote in that year (given the usual rules of retrospective voting that the incumbent party gets punished by a poor economy). And I correspondingly (and, it seems, incorrectly) read Levitt’s endorsement of Mu
4 0.55343509 1608 andrew gelman stats-2012-12-06-Confusing headline and capitalization leads to hopes raised, then dashed
Introduction: I read the following under the headline , Behind a Flop, a Play(wright) Within a Play”: A stroll down West 45th Street in the theater district is all it takes to understand the contradictory fortunes facing David Mamet, for years the heavyweight of bare-knuckled American playwrights, as well as the producers who believe that loyalty to the writer makes good business sense. At the Schoenfeld Theater is Mr. Mamet’s latest box-office hit: A revival of “Glengarry Glen Ross,” his Pulitzer Prize-winning crowd-pleaser from 1984 about an office of desperately scheming salesmen. The producers are charging up to $377 a ticket simply on the drawing power of their star, Al Pacino, even before its official opening this weekend. My first thought was, Cool! Mamet wrote a new play called “A revival of ‘Glengarry Glen Ross’” with a play within a play. My second thought was, No way am I paying $377 a ticket for this. Too bad it’s not more reasonably priced. Then I read the article more ca
5 0.53737104 1505 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-20-“Joseph Anton”
Introduction: I only read the review , not the book. What puzzled me was not any lack of self-awareness but rather this bit: The title of Mr. Rushdie’s new memoir . . . comes from the alias he assumed when British police told him back in 1989 that he needed a pseudonym: the Joseph comes from Joseph Conrad, the Anton from Anton Chekhov. The protection officers issued to him by the British government soon took to calling him “Joe,” an abbreviation he says he detested. The thing that I don’t understand is why he detested the nickname. If I were in a comparable situation, I think I’d appreciate if my security detail gave me a friendly nickname. Then again, with the stress that Rushdie’s been under, I can imagine all sorts of personality transformations.
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same-blog 1 0.94540232 928 andrew gelman stats-2011-09-27-Hey, look over here! Another rant!
Introduction: Bigshot establishment dude Peter Orszag thinks bigshot establishment dudes don’t have enough power. (Also politically related but not a rant: Joe McCarthy Versus Powerman and the Debt-Ceiling Destroyers, Part One. )
2 0.52747238 337 andrew gelman stats-2010-10-12-Election symposium at Columbia Journalism School
Introduction: Here’s the announcement: ELECTIONS 2010 How sustainable is the current Republican coalition? Why has support for the Democratic Party taken a nosedive? Has there been a fundamental change in political conflict since Obama took office? How might policy (health care, TARP, the stimulus) influence election outcomes? Join J-School Prof. TOM EDSALL and a bevy of some of the quickest political minds around for an examination of the upcoming November elections: * BEN SMITH & MAGGIE HABERMAN of Politico * CHARLES BLOW of the New York Times * MELINDA HENNEBERGER of Politics Daily * SAM STEIN of the Huffington Post * J-School Prof. TODD GITLIN and * Columbia University political scientists ANDREW GELMAN & BOB ERIKSON. This lecture is sponsored in part by the Sevellon Brown Lecture Fund. TUESDAY, OCTOBER 12 * 7 P.M. Journalism School Lecture Hall
3 0.40412965 300 andrew gelman stats-2010-09-28-A calibrated Cook gives Dems the edge in Nov, sez Sandy
Introduction: Sandy Gordon sends along this fun little paper forecasting the 2010 midterm election using expert predictions (the Cook and Rothenberg Political Reports). Gordon’s gimmick is that he uses past performance to calibrate the reports’ judgments based on “solid,” “likely,” “leaning,” and “toss-up” categories, and then he uses the calibrated versions of the current predictions to make his forecast. As I wrote a few weeks ago in response to Nate’s forecasts, I think the right way to go, if you really want to forecast the election outcome, is to use national information to predict the national swing and then do regional, state, and district-level adjustments using whatever local information is available. I don’t see the point of using only the expert forecasts and no other data. Still, Gordon is bringing new information (his calibrations) to the table, so I wanted to share it with you. Ultimately I like the throw-in-everything approach that Nate uses (although I think Nate’s descr
4 0.39548117 1551 andrew gelman stats-2012-10-28-A convenience sample and selected treatments
Introduction: Charlie Saunders writes: A study has recently been published in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) which uses survival analysis to examine long-acting reversible contraception (e.g. intrauterine devices [IUDs]) vs. short-term commonly prescribed methods of contraception (e.g. oral contraceptive pills) on unintended pregnancies. The authors use a convenience sample of over 7,000 women. I am not well versed-enough in sampling theory to determine the appropriateness of this but it would seem that the use of a non-probability sampling would be a significant drawback. If you could give me your opinion on this, I would appreciate it. The NEJM is one of the top medical journals in the country. Could this type of sampling method coupled with this method of analysis be published in a journal like JASA? My reply: There are two concerns, first that it is a convenience sample and thus not representative of the population, and second that the treatments are chosen rather tha
Introduction: Sandeep Baliga writes : [In a recent study , Gilles Duranton and Matthew Turner write:] For interstate highways in metropolitan areas we [Duranton and Turner] find that VKT (vehicle kilometers traveled) increases one for one with interstate highways, confirming the fundamental law of highway congestion.’ Provision of public transit also simply leads to the people taking public transport being replaced by drivers on the road. Therefore: These findings suggest that both road capacity expansions and extensions to public transit are not appropriate policies with which to combat traffic congestion. This leaves congestion pricing as the main candidate tool to curb traffic congestion. To which I reply: Sure, if your goal is to curb traffic congestion . But what sort of goal is that? Thinking like a microeconomist, my policy goal is to increase people’s utility. Sure, traffic congestion is annoying, but there must be some advantages to driving on that crowded road or pe
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