andrew_gelman_stats andrew_gelman_stats-2011 andrew_gelman_stats-2011-1034 knowledge-graph by maker-knowledge-mining
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Introduction: In our discussion of historian Niall Ferguson and piss-poor monocausal social science, commenter Matt W. pointed to Ferguson’s listing at a speakers bureau. One of his talks is entitled “Is This the Chinese Century?” The question mark at the end seems to give him some wiggle room. I give some paid lectures myself and was curious to learn more about this organization, World Class Speakers and Entertainers, so I clicked through to this list of topics and then searched for Statistics. Amazingly enough, there was a “Statistician” category (right above “Story Teller / Lore / Art / Power of Story Telling,” “Strategist / Strategies / Strategic Planning,” and “Success”). There I found Gopal C. Dorai, Ph.D. , who offers insights such as “vegetarians usually will not eat meat products, no matter how hungry they feel.” And “Cheating or lying for the sake of obtaining favorable treatment from others will be anathema to some people.” And “Life is a one-way-street; we cannot turn the c
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1 In our discussion of historian Niall Ferguson and piss-poor monocausal social science, commenter Matt W. [sent-1, score-0.379]
2 One of his talks is entitled “Is This the Chinese Century? [sent-3, score-0.202]
3 ” The question mark at the end seems to give him some wiggle room. [sent-4, score-0.09]
4 I give some paid lectures myself and was curious to learn more about this organization, World Class Speakers and Entertainers, so I clicked through to this list of topics and then searched for Statistics. [sent-5, score-0.823]
5 Amazingly enough, there was a “Statistician” category (right above “Story Teller / Lore / Art / Power of Story Telling,” “Strategist / Strategies / Strategic Planning,” and “Success”). [sent-6, score-0.095]
6 , who offers insights such as “vegetarians usually will not eat meat products, no matter how hungry they feel. [sent-10, score-0.591]
7 ” And “Cheating or lying for the sake of obtaining favorable treatment from others will be anathema to some people. [sent-11, score-0.514]
8 ” And “Life is a one-way-street; we cannot turn the clock back. [sent-12, score-0.209]
9 ” I’d think a bigshot like Niall Ferguson could do better than that! [sent-13, score-0.148]
10 Another one of the categories is “Political / President Ford’s Son. [sent-16, score-0.097]
11 I searched on “Paterno” but, no, he wasn’t there. [sent-20, score-0.253]
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same-blog 1 0.99999994 1034 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-29-World Class Speakers and Entertainers
Introduction: In our discussion of historian Niall Ferguson and piss-poor monocausal social science, commenter Matt W. pointed to Ferguson’s listing at a speakers bureau. One of his talks is entitled “Is This the Chinese Century?” The question mark at the end seems to give him some wiggle room. I give some paid lectures myself and was curious to learn more about this organization, World Class Speakers and Entertainers, so I clicked through to this list of topics and then searched for Statistics. Amazingly enough, there was a “Statistician” category (right above “Story Teller / Lore / Art / Power of Story Telling,” “Strategist / Strategies / Strategic Planning,” and “Success”). There I found Gopal C. Dorai, Ph.D. , who offers insights such as “vegetarians usually will not eat meat products, no matter how hungry they feel.” And “Cheating or lying for the sake of obtaining favorable treatment from others will be anathema to some people.” And “Life is a one-way-street; we cannot turn the c
2 0.28072676 1921 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-01-Going meta on Niall Ferguson
Introduction: Ashok Rao shreds the latest book from Niall Ferguson, who we’ve encountered most recently as the source of homophobic slurs but who used to be a serious scholar . Or maybe still is. Remember Linda, that character from the Kahneman and Tversky vignette who was deemed likely to be “a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement”? Maybe Ferguson is a serious scholar who is active in the being-a-hack movement. Perhaps when he’s not writing books where he distorts his sources, or giving lectures with unfortunate slurs, he’s doing historical research. It’s certainly possible. Rao describes how Ferguson distorts his source materials. This is a no-no for any historian, of course, but not such a surprise for Ferguson, who crossed over the John Yoo line awhile ago. Last year I wrote about the paradox of influence: Ferguson gets and keeps the big-money audience by telling them not what he (Ferguson) wants to say—not by giving them his unique insights and understanding—but rat
3 0.27897412 1493 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-12-Niall Ferguson, the John Yoo line, and the paradox of influence
Introduction: Life is continuous but we think in discrete terms. In applied statistics there’s the p=.05 line which tells us whether a finding is significant or not. Baseball has the Mendoza line. And academia has what might be called the John Yoo line : the point at which nothing you write gets taken seriously, and so you might as well become a hack because you have no scholarly reputation remaining. John Yoo, of course, became a hack because, I assume, he had nothing left to lose. In contrast, historian Niall Ferguson has reportedly been moved to hackery because he has so much to gain . At least that is the analysis of Stephen Marche ( link from Basbøll): Ferguson’s critics have simply misunderstood for whom Ferguson was writing that piece. They imagine that he is working as a professor or as a journalist, and that his standards slipped below those of academia or the media. Neither is right. Look at his speaking agent’s Web site. The fee: 50 to 75 grand per appearance. . . . Tha
Introduction: We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry. The general idea, I think, is that people without kids don’t care so much about the future, and this motivated Keynes’s party-all-the-time attitude, which might have worked just fine for Eddie Murphy’s girlfriend in the 1980s and in San Francisco bathhouses of the 1970s but, according to Ferguson, is not the ticket for preserving today’s American empire. Some of the more robust defenders of Ferguson may have been disappointed by his followup remarks: “I should not have suggested . . . that Keynes was indifferent to the long run because he had no children, nor that he had no children because he was g
5 0.22062463 1839 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-04-Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse
Introduction: History professor (or, as the news reports call him, “Harvard historian”) Niall Ferguson got in trouble when speaking at a conference of financial advisors. Tom Kostigen reports : Ferguson responded to a question about Keynes’ famous philosophy of self-interest versus the economic philosophy of Edmund Burke, who believed there was a social contract among the living, as well as the dead. Ferguson asked the audience how many children Keynes had. He explained that Keynes had none because he was a homosexual and was married to a ballerina, with whom he likely talked of “poetry” rather than procreated. . . . Ferguson . . . says it’s only logical that Keynes would take this selfish worldview because he was an “effete” member of society. . . . Throughout his remarks, Ferguson referred to his “friends” in high places. They should all be embarrassed and ashamed of such a connection to such small-minded thinking. Ferguson says U.S. laws and institutions have become degenerate. Acc
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10 0.17774743 1494 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-13-Watching the sharks jump
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20 0.069397129 89 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-A historical perspective on financial bailouts
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same-blog 1 0.96822172 1034 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-29-World Class Speakers and Entertainers
Introduction: In our discussion of historian Niall Ferguson and piss-poor monocausal social science, commenter Matt W. pointed to Ferguson’s listing at a speakers bureau. One of his talks is entitled “Is This the Chinese Century?” The question mark at the end seems to give him some wiggle room. I give some paid lectures myself and was curious to learn more about this organization, World Class Speakers and Entertainers, so I clicked through to this list of topics and then searched for Statistics. Amazingly enough, there was a “Statistician” category (right above “Story Teller / Lore / Art / Power of Story Telling,” “Strategist / Strategies / Strategic Planning,” and “Success”). There I found Gopal C. Dorai, Ph.D. , who offers insights such as “vegetarians usually will not eat meat products, no matter how hungry they feel.” And “Cheating or lying for the sake of obtaining favorable treatment from others will be anathema to some people.” And “Life is a one-way-street; we cannot turn the c
Introduction: We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry. The general idea, I think, is that people without kids don’t care so much about the future, and this motivated Keynes’s party-all-the-time attitude, which might have worked just fine for Eddie Murphy’s girlfriend in the 1980s and in San Francisco bathhouses of the 1970s but, according to Ferguson, is not the ticket for preserving today’s American empire. Some of the more robust defenders of Ferguson may have been disappointed by his followup remarks: “I should not have suggested . . . that Keynes was indifferent to the long run because he had no children, nor that he had no children because he was g
3 0.93144554 1839 andrew gelman stats-2013-05-04-Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse
Introduction: History professor (or, as the news reports call him, “Harvard historian”) Niall Ferguson got in trouble when speaking at a conference of financial advisors. Tom Kostigen reports : Ferguson responded to a question about Keynes’ famous philosophy of self-interest versus the economic philosophy of Edmund Burke, who believed there was a social contract among the living, as well as the dead. Ferguson asked the audience how many children Keynes had. He explained that Keynes had none because he was a homosexual and was married to a ballerina, with whom he likely talked of “poetry” rather than procreated. . . . Ferguson . . . says it’s only logical that Keynes would take this selfish worldview because he was an “effete” member of society. . . . Throughout his remarks, Ferguson referred to his “friends” in high places. They should all be embarrassed and ashamed of such a connection to such small-minded thinking. Ferguson says U.S. laws and institutions have become degenerate. Acc
4 0.90299743 1493 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-12-Niall Ferguson, the John Yoo line, and the paradox of influence
Introduction: Life is continuous but we think in discrete terms. In applied statistics there’s the p=.05 line which tells us whether a finding is significant or not. Baseball has the Mendoza line. And academia has what might be called the John Yoo line : the point at which nothing you write gets taken seriously, and so you might as well become a hack because you have no scholarly reputation remaining. John Yoo, of course, became a hack because, I assume, he had nothing left to lose. In contrast, historian Niall Ferguson has reportedly been moved to hackery because he has so much to gain . At least that is the analysis of Stephen Marche ( link from Basbøll): Ferguson’s critics have simply misunderstood for whom Ferguson was writing that piece. They imagine that he is working as a professor or as a journalist, and that his standards slipped below those of academia or the media. Neither is right. Look at his speaking agent’s Web site. The fee: 50 to 75 grand per appearance. . . . Tha
5 0.89913708 1921 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-01-Going meta on Niall Ferguson
Introduction: Ashok Rao shreds the latest book from Niall Ferguson, who we’ve encountered most recently as the source of homophobic slurs but who used to be a serious scholar . Or maybe still is. Remember Linda, that character from the Kahneman and Tversky vignette who was deemed likely to be “a bank teller who is active in the feminist movement”? Maybe Ferguson is a serious scholar who is active in the being-a-hack movement. Perhaps when he’s not writing books where he distorts his sources, or giving lectures with unfortunate slurs, he’s doing historical research. It’s certainly possible. Rao describes how Ferguson distorts his source materials. This is a no-no for any historian, of course, but not such a surprise for Ferguson, who crossed over the John Yoo line awhile ago. Last year I wrote about the paradox of influence: Ferguson gets and keeps the big-money audience by telling them not what he (Ferguson) wants to say—not by giving them his unique insights and understanding—but rat
7 0.88438284 1040 andrew gelman stats-2011-12-03-Absolutely last Niall Ferguson post ever, in which I offer him serious advice
8 0.85362172 1495 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-13-Win $5000 in the Economist’s data visualization competition
9 0.85320127 1494 andrew gelman stats-2012-09-13-Watching the sharks jump
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15 0.67314839 89 andrew gelman stats-2010-06-16-A historical perspective on financial bailouts
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same-blog 1 0.92453051 1034 andrew gelman stats-2011-11-29-World Class Speakers and Entertainers
Introduction: In our discussion of historian Niall Ferguson and piss-poor monocausal social science, commenter Matt W. pointed to Ferguson’s listing at a speakers bureau. One of his talks is entitled “Is This the Chinese Century?” The question mark at the end seems to give him some wiggle room. I give some paid lectures myself and was curious to learn more about this organization, World Class Speakers and Entertainers, so I clicked through to this list of topics and then searched for Statistics. Amazingly enough, there was a “Statistician” category (right above “Story Teller / Lore / Art / Power of Story Telling,” “Strategist / Strategies / Strategic Planning,” and “Success”). There I found Gopal C. Dorai, Ph.D. , who offers insights such as “vegetarians usually will not eat meat products, no matter how hungry they feel.” And “Cheating or lying for the sake of obtaining favorable treatment from others will be anathema to some people.” And “Life is a one-way-street; we cannot turn the c
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Introduction: I received the following bizarre email: Apr 26, 2013 Dear Andrew Gelman You are receiving this notice because you have published a paper with the American Journal of Public Health within the last few years. Currently, content on the Journal is closed access for the first 2 years after publication, and then freely accessible thereafter. On June 1, 2013, the Journal will be extending its closed-access window from 2 years to 10 years. Extending this window will close public access to your article via the Journal web portal, but public access will still be available via the National Institutes of Health PubMedCentral web portal. If you would like to make your article available to the public for free on the Journal web portal, we are extending this limited time offer of open access at a steeply discounted rate of $1,000 per article. If interested in purchasing this access, please contact Brian Selzer, Publications Editor, at brian.selzer@apha.org Additionally, you may purchas
3 0.82655215 651 andrew gelman stats-2011-04-06-My talk at Northwestern University tomorrow (Thursday)
Introduction: Of Beauty, Sex, and Power: Statistical Challenges in Estimating Small Effects. At the Institute of Policy Research, Thurs 7 Apr 2011, 3.30pm . Regular blog readers know all about this topic. ( Here are the slides.) But, rest assured, I don’t just mock. I also offer constructive suggestions. My last talk at Northwestern was fifteen years ago. Actually, I gave two lectures then, in the process of being turned down for a job enjoying their chilly Midwestern hospitality. P.S. I searched on the web and also found this announcement which gives the wrong title.
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Introduction: Michael Collins ( here’s a link but I don’t know the original source) picked up on my article about statistics and the cigarette companies, which mentioned a consulting job of famed Stanford statistician Ingram Olkin, and noticed that Olkin was recently in the news as a coauthor of a report on organic food: A widely publicized study claiming that there is no demonstrated difference in nutritional value between organically and conventionally grown foods just appeared in the Annals of Internal Medicine. Broad mainstream media coverage produced headlines like Stanford Scientists Cast Doubt on Advantages of Organic Meat and Produce. The media failed to mention one point that may be of major interest. . . . The article co-author with recognized expertise in meta-analysis, Ingram Olkin, applied for a grant from Council of Tobacco Research (CTR) in 1976. . . . Olkin applied to the CTR to conduct a project on the statistical methods used in the Framingham Heart Study, the landmark projec
5 0.80644917 1940 andrew gelman stats-2013-07-16-A poll that throws away data???
Introduction: Mark Blumenthal writes: What do you think about the “random rejection” method used by PPP that was attacked at some length today by a Republican pollster. Our just published post on the debate includes all the details as I know them. The Storify of Martino’s tweets has some additional data tables linked to toward the end. Also, more specifically, setting aside Martino’s suggestion of manipulation (which is also quite possible with post-stratification weights), would the PPP method introduce more potential random error than weighting? From Blumenthal’s blog: B.J. Martino, a senior vice president at the Republican polling firm The Tarrance Group, went on an 30-minute Twitter rant on Tuesday questioning the unorthodox method used by PPP [Public Policy Polling] to select samples and weight data: “Looking at @ppppolls new VA SW. Wondering how many interviews they discarded to get down to 601 completes? Because @ppppolls discards a LOT of interviews. Of 64,811 conducted
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